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A big day for National Hunt fans tomorrow as the first meeting of the season at Cheltenham gets underway. It will be a real treat for many people as spectators return to the track in open numbers since March 2020. The recent noises around restrictions from the media aren't helpful, which puts crowds in big numbers in doubt for the coming season if the media and lockdown lovers get their way. We will try and keep raceday previews up to date but it won't be daily, as our bets are much more selective than other blogs/sites. Just to note, a lot of the early season will be watching as much racing as possible before more bets are posted middle to late season when the shape to races are easier to figure out.
The card at Cheltenham for a Friday in October is an interesting one, and a card with bits and pieces of good quality runners too. The first 3 races of the day are quite trappy races to bet in and I have no real opinion on any of them. The novice chase will be worth watching however, with some decent horses in there. Third Time Lucki was an above average novice hurdler last season and is expected to be a decent chaser too, whilst Any News caught the eye over fences first time out too. That'll be one to watch going forwards with 4 out of the 5 runners expected to be fair level handicappers.
The 4th race is a novice handicap chase andFavior could be a decent horse to follow, whilst Annual Invictus will look to turn around his last time defeat to the aforementioned horse getting an 8lb swing this time. Danny Kirwan was highly regarded at one point and big things were expected of him over fences. Suffered with niggles throughout his time with Nicholls however, and kept over hurdles too long, although hopefully we can see some ounce of quality from him that he promised from his bumper days.
2m4f Abu Dhabi Digital Exchange Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) - Cheltenham 4:!5
I've stuck my neck on the line with this decent handicap with a little bit of depth to it for our selections today. Top weight Guard Your Dreams ran some decent races in handicap company in the Betfair Hurdle and Coral Cup last season, picking up some prize money in each. He then finished his season off in the Mersey Novices Hurdle over 2m4 at the Grand National meeting, finishing a staying on 3rd behind My Drogo. Rated 140, I expect he still has a few pounds in hand on the handicapper but has to give weight all round to fellow youngsters. Early prices reckon he will be priced around the 9/2 mark and that isn't tempting enough for me. Other runners include Art Approval, Found On and Mullaghmore Wave, who have all ran consistently in their latest runs and all are rated with the scope to improve from the handicapper. I don't know a great deal about these runners so it's a watching berth for me with regards to the 3 mentioned.
The one I am interested in is the Nicky Henderson trained CAPTAIN MORGS, who I've followed since his bumper win last season at Warwick in October 2020. Rated 125, I expect him to be rated comfortably into the high 130's by the end of the season at the minimum. A horse who will still need more racing experience, he was green as grass last season and his form tailed off in the 2nd half of the season. His beating of Annual Invictus at Ascot in a novice hurdle last October reads well (Annual Invictus finished 4th in the Betfair Hurdle off 135), whilst he was inconvenienced at times in small fields a couple of times including against decent hurdler Ajero at Kempton (Nov 2020), and had to make the running at Fakenham against Shang Tang in a 4 runner race- which didn't suit this babyish gelding at all. His main target was the EBF Final Series Novice Hurdle at Sandown in March, but the ground turned against him on the day with a deluge of rain and he ran accordingly. Last seen falling at Kempton in a 3 runner race, he was still sitting quietly at the time, and the fall summed his season up - showing promise but never delivering. It's expected that a summer's grass and some strengthening up will do wonders to this horse, and I expect him to improve in handicap hurdles through the season. First prices are 15/2 and that rates a solid each way bet, assuming he's firing fit on his first run.
Another one who I think is overpriced at early prices is the Tim Vaughan trained CLEMENCIA. The 5 year old hasn't won since 2019 whilst in the hands of Brendan Duke across the Irish Sea, but based on his run in the Fred Winter in 2020, he could have a few pounds in hand after dropping down the handicap to a mark of 128. The Fred Winter in 2020 has thrown up some fair horses who have performed in handicaps last season, whilst his run at Cheltenham last December in a staying on 4th gives me hope that the step up in trip will suit here. He won't be a horse who is too hard to be fit as from my memory he's quite a small and compact horse. Forget his last run in horrendous conditions at Exeter last time out in February, and with the ground still decent despite the deluge of rain, I hope he can outrun his odds of 33/1 with William Hill paying 4 places.
Selections:
Captain Morgs - 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill or wait for bigger prices)
Clemencia - 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill - paying 4 places)
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The rest of the card is entertained by a long distance amateur chase and a maiden hurdle, so not further bets from me, but it's great to have Cheltenham back!
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