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After a small break to writing blogs, I am back with another edition of Longshots. Currently still well over 30pts in profit, hopefully we can add to that with plenty of winners across the festive period. I'll also follow this with another blog on my thoughts on the big races each day, time allowing. I hope everyone reading this has a great Christmas and New Year.
1:20 Kempton - 2m4½f Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Novices' Limited Handicap Chase
The dead 8 run in this, which will make each way punters fearful of a late non-runner to condemn them to just 2 places being paid, so I'll chance a win bet on a horse who I backed earlier in the week at 16/1. I have a feeling YOUR DARLING has a slight preference for going right handed on a flat track if his runs at Huntingdon are the correct evidence on paper. Disappointing on his last run at Aintree, it's fair to say he hasn't hit the heights that his trainer thought he would. He looked, and was touted, as a potential machine when beating the one-time highly regarded Flinteur Sacre in a bumper at Newbury. The likelihood is that form probably isn't very strong, and overhyped at the time by plenty including me, however his run at Huntingdon on his first run over fences was a very eye-catching run. Jumped cleanly and professionally throughout, he is only rated 126 and there could be some more improvement to come on this flat right handed track off a low weight. He has to contend against some rather decent horses, so will have his work cut out but I'll chance him based on his first chase run at Huntingdon. Looking at his breeding, he will be a 3 miler next season and it isn't out of the realms of possibility that he will prove to be the star his trainer believes he is.
Your Darling - 1pt win @ 12/1 (General)
3:05 Kempton - 3m Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1)
I'm really looking forward to watching the King George on Boxing Day. It's always been a brilliant race to watch, however small fields have been detrimental to the race in recent times. That's not to say that this year there is a full field in-store for us, but we've got 9 solid horses who are all rated over 160, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see any of them run above their odds. I would imagine all will stand their ground, which brings in 3 places being paid with the 9 runners, and I'll take a chance with a Paul Nicholls runner. It won't be a horse going for his 3rd King George, nor last years winner either. I'll be taking a chance on a horse having his first run under the care of Nicholls, in the shape of SAINT CALVADOS. Nicholls has taken a number of horses from other trainers in the summer such as Lalor and Simply The Betts, and both have ran crackers on their first outing for the Somerset based trainer. I read an interesting article with Nicholls not long ago, where he stated that bar the odd freak, he feels he can get a horse to perform to the best of their ability on one day in the first part of the season, and one in the latter part. It seems like the plan for Saint Calvados by his new trainer has been to train the gelding to peak form on his first outing on a flat 3 miles at Kempton, and he should be primed for the day to run a big one.
The gelding suffered with his fair share of problems last season with Harry Whittingdon, where he was only seen twice including a fine 4th on his reappearance in this same race last year behind Frodon. Unseating in the rearranged Cotswold Chase at Sandown, he wasn't seen after before being moved by his owner to Nicholls. The way he travelled at Kempton, suggested a possible breathing operation where he cut out completely when holding every chance, and Nicholls has possibly rectified that issue with a wind operation AND a first time tongue tie. This might give the gelding a chance to finish off his race better and at 8 years old, he's still got enough miles left in the engine to deliver another race or 2 for his new trainer. I believe he's got a decent chance of filling the frame as I feel he would be best fresh, having won 3 times on his first reappearance of the season. This is the best time to catch him.
Saint Calvados - 1.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy)
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