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Welcome back to another chapter of Longshots. I am still buzzing with the 22/1 winner last weekend in the Grand Sefton courtesy of Mac Tottie to put the longshots column up to +40.8pts in profit after only 2 weeks and 5 selections. Hopefully that boosts the awareness of this blog, and if you are a new reader - welcome. Let's take a look at tomorrows racing which is the first day of the eagerly awaited 3 day Open meeting at Cheltenham. Lets get some value!
1:10 Cheltenham - 2m5f (Old) Markel Insurance Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
Having already put up a couple of selections in this race, I loathe to put up 3 and they all get beat but this is a longshots blog and I do think one at the top of the weights has a fair chance, if you can forgive his last run. THE WREKIN was last seen making the early running in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow last month, facing horses who a level above most of these tomorrow. Tomorrow he faces mainly inexperienced horses or horses of lower grade in a compressed handicap with only 7lb separating the top and bottom weight. A winner of 3 hurdle races in early summer, he enjoys good ground, will be positioned prominently and clearly has ability above his 22/1 price, with William Hill paying 6 places.
THE WREKIN - 1pt e/w @ 22/1 (William Hill paying 6 places)
1:45 Cheltenham - 2m (1m7f199y) (Old) Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase
I'm probably throwing this one in because it's too obvious but as already mentioned in the blog when I put up Bathiva, BUN DORAN has been given a fine chance to run well tomorrow by the handicapper. Dropped 20lb from a high of 160, he runs off 140 in an open looking handicap. You have 2 horses at the top of the betting that I'd like to take on with Stolen Silver, won't be afforded the same easy time as his last run, and Magic Saint - who is a talented horse but terribly inconsistent and would need to be graded level to win this off 152. Editeur Du Gite is the horse I expect to win this, with Bathiva running a cracker but I'll pop up Bun Doran at a tasty 16/1 as a horse who's capable of running a big race first time out after wind surgery. He actually has a good record first time out, finishing 2nd behind the aforementioned Magic Saint in 2019 and a 2nd in 2017, with a win in 2018 sandwiched in between in this very same race. The stable form is a slight worry but this is a decent pot for Bun Doran to be ready first time out in a race he's won before, and a 16/1 is a price worth taking as an each way price.
BUN DORAN - 1.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (Betfair)
4:00 Cheltenham - 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Valda Energy Novices' Handicap Hurdle
A trappy novice handicap hurdle to finish things off on the 1st day of the Open meeting and I'll take a chance on a horse who's top of the weights and already run in this race before. Dan Skelton could have a decent 3 days with plenty of his stable stars on offer including My Drogo, and he runs one here in the shape of PERCYS WORD. He finished down the field in this same race last season after 3 runs over hurdles, but it's clear he's a horse who has thrived on his racing since with some really consistent displays over the summer. A horse who may be avoided some punters due to his number of 2nds in the last few months (2nd 4 times), I'm not sure if it's through him being ingenuine or unlucky. The little bit of form which makes me think he can run a fair race tomorrow is his beating of Persian War winner Camprond at Stratford in September (3rd has won since too), and he could be a bit better than 122.
PERCYS WORD - 1.5pts e/w @ 22/1 (BetVic paying 5 places)
Longshots P/L: +40.8pts (5 selections)
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