The Path to the Festival - ep3

After a small break from the tipping blogs including longshots where I didn't really fancy anything strongly in the past couple of weeks, the blogs have returned with the next episode of Path to the Festival. 3 bets have already been put up, and all 3 are in a healthy position as it stands. Conflated is set to run in the Cross Country Handicap at Cheltenham this weekend, and that should mean you'll see him in the finale in March. The 4/1 on offer is still fair although I assume that price will stay around that unless he wins the handicap on Friday. Appreciate It, put up at 50/1 for the Ryanair, is also now 14/1 after a solid run in the John Durkan finishing 2nd. He looks to of turned a corner and could be a horse to follow this season. The remaining selection was Favori Du Champdou in the National Hunt chase. He's now 2nd favourite after his win in a Grade 2 at Punchestown, and has been potentially earmarked for the race by his trainer. If he ends up in said race, he has a decent chance of hitting the frame at least. Now let's take a look at what's happened since our last episode, starting with the novice chasers and hurdlers.

Novice Chasers

Let's start with a Paul Nicholls trained horse who looks a potential RSA (Brown Advisory) winner in waiting. Stay Away Fay beat another decent novice in the shape of Giovinco at Sandown on Friday, to cement himself at the top of the market for the 3 mile Brown Advisory. I've been really impressed by Stay Away Fay this season so far, and he deserves his place at the top of the market. Twice now he's had to make the running, and there will be more improvement to come when he gets a lead through the race. His next race will be crucial as I feel both novice chasers + hurdlers coming into their races at Cheltenham, need to have a proper test in the season to get them battle hardened for March. The Brown Advisory in particular, doesn't always go to the best horse in the race but often the toughest and more experienced novice.

I think it's crucial for Stay Away Fay to have a race against either more experienced horses or a race with a decent amount of runners for his experience. The Cotswold Chase against older and established chasers has been mentioned, and that would be a perfect race for his further development. The 5/1 on offer is of interest to me but it's short enough with plenty more water to go under the bridge in that race.

Other novices have also come out and impressed in the short time between episodes. Gaelic Warrior was mighty impressive in his first outing at Punchestown and took the eye of plenty of antepost punters. He still jumped to his right, markedly at times, and even with his massive engine, that is a huge worry still. The price has gone on him anyway with 5/2 the best price on offer. Grangeclare West, Klassical Dream, Indiana Dream and Il Etait Temps have all impressed for Willie Mullins in their opening novice chases too.

There are a few more novices to think about including a tentative 25/1 selection for the Turners too. Let's start with JP McManus who holds a few aces in the pack with a number of novice chasers and all have their chance. Corbetts Cross won on his second outing beating some decent horses in behind, whilst Indiana Dream looked impressive in soft ground. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Inthepocket will be the Arkle horse, with Indiana Dream and Corbetts Cross mixing it in the Turners. That leaves Fact to File for the RSA horse given he's already been beaten over a middle distance by American Mike. That's my view now, and I'll probably be wrong - not for the first time!

And finally a small tentative selection for the Turners will be the final say on the novice chasers. FOUND A FIFTY was beaten in the Drinmore a few days ago by an Irish Grand National winner. I don't think that was a bad run by the Gordon Elliott trained star, who jumped fairly well throughout before making a novicey error at the final flight which allowed I Am Maximus to gobble him up on the run in. There's no shame in being beat by a strong stayer in I Am Maximus who looks a graded chaser going forwards, and Found A Fifty can be Gordon Elliott's main novice chaser for middle distances. I can see him running in the Flogas at the Dublin Racing Festival, before a tilt at the Turners in March. A decent jumper, he's still got plenty of improvement in him, and has a nice combination of speed and stamina for this race. 25/1 looks too big for a horse who probably lacks the required speed for the Arkle, and it's unlikely his connections will throw him in the RSA as he doesn't strike me as a horse who wants 3 miles just yet. He is worth an each way play, and is highly rated by his trainer who no doubt feels he can live up to his potential in the coming months.

Novice Hurdlers

Stellar Story was put up on this website as a 33/1 tip for the Albert Bartlett, and after his opening start culminating in an impressive win over hurdles for the first time - big things were expected at Navan over the weekend in a Grade 2 novice hurdle. Going off 11/8 favourite, he faded into 3rd and didn't have the speed to match the impressive winner Slade Steel, whilst in 2nd Lecky Watson will surely go into punters notebooks for the Albert Bartlett - staying on stoutly to the line. Stellar Story definitely needs 3 miles and a lead, and is one to keep in mind for the Albert Bartlett still, along with Lecky Watson - who needs to brush up on his jumping.

The eventual winner Slade Steel is now a contender for the Ballymore, and might set a decent standard. He rates an each way bet and the Ballymore is likely to be his target - although his next race is uncertain. He might be dropped down to 2 miles at the DRF. One horse he may face is his old nemesis Ballyburn, who beat him at Punchestown in a bumper. Beaten by Firefox, more on him in a minute, he was novicey and will no doubt improve. He looks a Ballymore runner as well, and will come on plenty for that run behind Firefox.

Talking of Firefox, along with Willmount, to my eye he's the most impressive novice I've seen so far. Jumping well from the front, he caught the eye with a strong burst of acceleration in the home straight and looks a Grade 1 winner in waiting. I'm scratching my head as to what race he will go for in March but he could easily compete over 2 miles given he looks a natural. 6/1 in the any race market with Skybet looks decent but I'll hold off for now.

Another Grade 1 horse in waiting is Ile Atlantique, with his novice hurdle win at Gowran being boosted by No Time To Wait. It'll be interesting to see where he goes next. Willie Mullins also had Daddy Long Legs win at Thurles, he looks a speedy flat bred type. I also think a horse mentioned in a previous episode It's For Me could be a Supreme hope for Willie too.

Nicky Henderson has had a few novice hurdle winners after a rare hiatus last season, and the talking horse Jeriko Du Reponet was seen at Newbury winning on the snaff. Whilst he looks a top notch recruit, you'd love to see him be given pressure by his jockey so we can see what's underneath the bonnet like Willmount before taking the 8/1 for the Supreme in March.

Leopardstown at Christmas will give us an idea of the pecking order of Irish novices, however the picture looks murky in the U.K. especially with the Nicky Henderson runners as I expect Nicky to split his best novices if he can.

Established Horses

The 2 main contenders for the Champion Chase both ran on the same weekend. El Fabiolo won well at Cork in the Hilly Way, whilst Jonbon won handily across the Irish Sea at Sandown. Both are top class horses and the preference would be for El Fabiolo, however there is no juice in his price. Jonbon does have a better chance with De Boinville on his back however, as Coleman has a habit of chasing the pace on the Walk in the Park gelding as seen in the Supreme and Arkle which doesn't help his chances. Jonbon does seem a more mature horse now however, and might handle the preliminaries better this year. Often he's been a horse who's on edge, sweating freely and that is often a negative to his chance in the hot cauldron of the Festival. It might give him a little bit more energy in the finish if he can handle those better.

In the Stayers Hurdle, Teahupoo put up a great performance to nail Impaire Et Passé in the Hattons Grace to rightfully cement himself as Stayers Hurdle favourite. Tipped up at 12/1 in the long range Cheltenham forecast on this blog, that looks a tasty bet. The Stayers is lacking depth as we speak, and the French horse Theleme is a dangerous lurker in the pack (accordingly priced however). Looking further down the list West Balboa, Home by the Lee and a blog favourite Crambo stick out as each way bets for any big price takers. I'm expecting something to come out of the pack in this race such as something switching from fences to hurdles.

The Gold Cup winner likely comes from the top 3 in the betting (Galopin Des Champs, Gerri Colombe, Fastorslow) and I have an open mind right now with who will take the blue riband. Galopin Des Champs has contracted back to 5/2, which is a terrible price and the 4/1 on offer for a time after the John Durkan should be his price. L'Homme Presse could add a further contender to the market if he returns to action in the coming weeks.

I could go on about plenty of other things but I'll give the final word to the Mares Hurdle with a 20/1 selection on offer. YOU WEAR IT WELL ran a muddling race in the Fighting Fifth at Sandown in heavy ground. She didn't really travel like her usual self and I'm going to take the view the ground was just too soft for her. Although she won at Wetherby in soft conditions at the end of October, Sandown was practically bottomless on the hurdle track after months of rain and watering in the summer for the flat campaign at the Esher track.

On her run at Sandown you wouldn't fancy her against Lossiemouth or Gala Marceau, however juveniles tend to struggle after their opening season and both are priced short on that judgement. You Wear It Well has a nice blend of speed and stamina, is a winner at the track (winning the Mares Novice last season) and is probably priced so big due to her connections after a below par run at Sandown. Stated to be her main target of the season, it's hoped Jamie Snowden can freshen her up before a prep run, and thereafter the next step to tackle the Mares Hurdle. At this time, 20/1 is a fair each way bet in an open market with a huge percentage of the market being taken by juveniles that are always worth taking on in open company in their next season.

The next episode will be after the Christmas period where plenty of clues will of been provided by a feast of racing for fans, see you then and I hope everyone has a great festive period.

Bets

Favori Du Champdou - National Hunt Chase - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 (BetVictor)

Appreciate It - Ryanair Chase - 0.5pts ew @ 50/1 (Skybet)

Conflated - Cross Country Chase - 2pts win @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

Firefox - Turners Novices Chase - 0.75pts ew @ 25/1 (Bet365)

You Wear It Well - Mares Hurdle - 1pt ew @ 20/1 (Bet365)