The Path to the Festival - ep2

It's been a couple of weeks since our opening Path to the Festival (new name btw) and our first 2 antepost selections haven't run in that time. Appreciate It is entered in the John Durkan this weekend, whilst Favori De Champdou is also entered up. Hopefully both can put in decent runs to cement the antepost bets going forwards.

We've had a number of eye catching performances in the last couple of weeks. A number of novice hurdlers and chasers have been out, whilst the 3 day meeting at Cheltenham provided some future clues for those 28 races in March albeit in short supply.

Novices

Let's start with a novice hurdler who really caught the eye and is definitely on my shortlist for a novice hurdle come March. The exciting Willmount was seen at Newbury on his first run for Nicky Henderson, and despite an average field, he looks a potential top-notcher for his connections. The way he jumped, lengthened the field and hit the line strong reminded me of Shishkin in his novice hurdle days and he's likely to do his running over 2 miles until he's beaten I'm assuming. I'm tempted to put him up for the Supreme but Henderson has a few good novices and Jeriko Du Reponet might also be the main hope for the Supreme given Henderson's comments, whilst a couple of others novices have caught the eye including Southoftheborder. Plenty of water to go under the bridge, however Willmount made a striking impression on me and he will be a graded horse no doubting.

Another horse who also made a striking impression and was a horse I had in mind for the Supreme over the summer was It's For Me. Whilst I don't think of him as the winner of the opener in March, I think he could be a horse for the places (similar to Blue Lord who was booked for a place in 2021) and will improve for racing over the season. Keen throughout, he pulled out enough at the finish to beat a smart opponent in Caldwell Potter, whilst Ascending gave the form a solid base. Ballyburn looks a potential top notcher for the Supreme or Ballymore, but It's For Me shouldnt be too far behind and might be a horse to follow in the spring.

Another Mullins horse who should be a top notcher over hurdles is Ile Atlantique and he demolished the field at Gowran a couple of weeks ago. That maiden hurdle looks strong with the top 5 all having a fair amount of ability. Ile Atlantique's breeding looks like he wants further than 2 mile, and will be one to consider for the Ballymore or slightly further, if he goes to Cheltenham. However Mullins could no doubt turn this lad into a staying 2 miler. Willmount, It's For Me and Ile Atlantique are certainly 3 to follow for March, with a strong shout to Willmount on visual terms.

The last novice hurdler to mention (there are a few others but you don't want me to go on too much) and one that has been mentioned on the site already. Stellar Story was mentioned in the long term antepost blog for March at 33/1, and was impressive at Navan over 2m4. He looks every inch an Albert Bartlett horse, and the race had a couple of decent runners in behind including Largy Hill. It's a long time out to nail your colours to the mast for the Albert Bartlett but as mentioned previously, he's worth a tickle if you enjoy an interest bet to follow through the season.

Moving onto the novice chasers, another long term fancy put up in the aforementioned blog was Facile Vega for the Arkle. I have to admit I was underwhelmed by his performance and slightly disappointed by his jumping where he didn't look a real natural. However I'm happy to let novices have a couple of races before judging him openly, and it's clear it was about giving him confidence. I noticed that Paul Townend had him a short rein throughout and this didn't help Facile Vega as I'd prefer him to be allowed to dominate and use that massive stride. He will be seen at Leopardstown next and I'm hoping he will of had plenty of schooling before then. I do prefer this horse from the front where that massive stride is a huge advantage.

In the same beginners chase Inthepocket ran a respectable race and was plenty keen in behind Facile Vega. He stayed on well enough to the line and should appreciate going up to a middle distance as he's held by the winner and Marine Nationale on form lines. He will need to settle better to get that trip however.

Mister Policeman is entered for a chase this weekend and has been talked up over the summer for the Arkle. Hard to judge this horse based on his win against Cash Back at the back end of the Spring last season, and is best watched. His overall profile reminds of Chacun Pour Soi and will no doubt improve with racing under his master trainer. 2 horses that could come out the pack for the Arkle are also trained at Closutton. Blood Destiny is set to tackle fences and he's worth considering but it might be a season too early for him being a 4 year old (see Saint Sam for an example) whilst I do think Il Etait Temps is worth considering as an each way bet for the Arkle. Entered up this weekend, this free goer is another one held on form by the Supreme 1-2 but I have a feeling he might be a better chaser and is worth considering as an each way alternative if you prefer playing the bigger prices. He's priced at 33/1.

Looking at other novice chases, it's nice to see generally 10/1+ the field for both the Turners and RSA with no horse cementing themselves as strong favourites in either - this is good for a competitive antepost market. Gaelic Warrior is generally favourite for both if you ignore Facile Vega, and I'd like to see him jump before you can make a solid opinion. I think it's a certainty that he'll jump right, as he did over hurdles, as often horses do the same despite the change in the size of obstacles. One I do like in the RSA is Stay Away Fay who showed an impressive strong finishing kick at Exeter. He jumped well, and looks an old school stayer who will appreciate an end to end gallop where he doesn't have to make the running.

Grangeclare West was impressive but I do wonder if this fella has a hole in him given his performances have dropped off badly after an impressive start last year without an excuse. Whilst Fact to File was beaten by American Mike over 2m4. It's worth sticking with Fact to File who's only had 4 races in his life, and only one over obstacles. He will improve for racing and I think he'll be a RSA horse come March.

Open Races

Jonbon was impressive in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham and beat some ageing horses to cement himself as second favourite for the Champion Chase. I'm not sure Cheltenham is his favoured track and I'm not sure he completely loves the hill as he wasn't 'overly' strong at the finish this weekend. Still it was a great run for his first race of the season, and will likely stick at 2 miles all season now. He won't beat El Fabiolo however in my mind. It's a shame there isn't any bigger than evens around for the latter.

There hasn't been a huge amount going on outside of that in the open established races at Cheltenham. However I'm going to nail my colours to the mast for the Cross Country Chase in March, and I expect CONFLATED to be switched to this race after his run in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. That's not to say this fella won't go close over Christmas in that said race, however I think his connections will opt for the easier race in March. It's very, very unlikely he will turn the form around with Galopin Des Champs, and with Gerri Colombe on the scene and being trained by the same stable, Gordon Elliott will likely choose to run Conflated and have 3 live chances in the Cross Country. It's likely this race will be turned into a handicap next year given the noise going around in the media, and Elliott will likely choose to have an easy winner over the Cross Country fences before those conditions change. Already touted to have been over the fences at Cheltenham, and rumours were abound that he loved every single minute - the 9/2 looks the bet. Take the bet with Coral or Ladbrokes.

The last 2 races with any sort of movement has been the Ryanair and Gold Cup. The Ryanair has seen Allaho come back and cement his position at the top of the market in a basic walkover, however he looked his usual galloping machine in bottomless ground. He is best watched until he's given a proper race to see what is still left underneath the bonnet. I'm not convinced we will get a proper race for him though as I assume he'll go to Thurles after Christmas taking on not much. The other horse who also cemented his position was Stage Star. I have to admit I was very impressed with his performance in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Cheltenham and is probably worth his place as 2nd favourite. I think the race looks absolutely perfect for a second season chaser given the advancing years of Allaho and Envoi Allen, and Paul Nicholls has a live chance. I also feel one to keep an eye on at a bigger price is Edwardstone, he's likely to be upped in trip now, whilst Banbridge is a danger if he gets his favoured better ground come March. Appreciate It too can be involved if he is fit and firing, and don't forget Sir Gerhard who was running a decent race at Naas before falling.

Gerri Colombe threw his name into the ring for the Gold Cup with a late run in the Grade 1 at Down Royal. He will improve through the season and have a chance given his profile but I'll still side with Galopin Des Champs come March if he's still in one piece and showing his true form.

That's all, until next time.

Bets

Favori De Champdou - National Hunt Chase - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 (BetVictor)

Appreciate It - Ryanair Chase - 0.5pts ew @ 50/1 (Skybet)

Conflated - Cross Country Chase - 2pts win @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral)