The Path To Prestbury - Episode 1

Welcome to the first edition of the 'Path to Prestbury'. The Racing Mind's own version of a monthly Cheltenham blog which will include a few selections for the big Festival in March. Hopefully we can find a few big priced winners along the way. There are plenty of other blogs like this but it's Cheltenham, so.

We haven't seen many novice hurdlers or novice chasers this year given the dry conditions across the UK and Ireland, and it's a muddling picture for all the markets at the moment. In terms of the novice hurdlers, the best horse I've seen has to be Hollow Games. Priced at 8/1 for the Albert Bartlett in November, it's a poor enough price but as we know already, the bookmakers don't give anything away these days. Plenty of judges got the 33/1 a couple of months ago and they won't be allowing anymore juice in his price. Having taken some of the 33/1 on offer myself (aftertime alert), I just hope they don't go the Ballymore after mentioning that Hollow Games has gears after his win at the weekend. It reminds me of the Death Duty saga when Gordon Elliott kicked himself for going the 3 mile route when he shown plenty of pace in his novice hurdles. 8/1 is too short for that race in November anyway, dreadful price.

A novice hurdler I am interested in for a handicap at this stage (I know it's early) is a horse already mentioned for the Martin Pipe by his trainer, in the shape of CHEMICAL ENERGY. The cat is already out of the bag with Gordon Elliott having already given it a favourable mention in a stable tour, and with no bookmakers offering odds in a formed market (want to back each way), unfortunately I cannot put the horse up at a price. When the markets do form than I would suggest an each way bet on the horse. Last seen finishing a distant 2nd behind My Mate Mozzie over 2 miles at Navan in a grade 3, he had already won a maiden hurdle with ease over 2m4 in a below average novice hurdle. Bred to want at least 2 and a half, he looks the right sort of profile Gordon Elliott likes for this race and it will be a long term plan for him to gain experience and a fair handicap rating. Hopefully bookmakers might go 16/1 (each way 4 places) at some time in the future. Don't be surprised if he's tenderly handled in graded races finishing down the field with a view to a lenient handicap rating in the UK.

Bravemansgame looks the best novice chaser so far this season, and it'll be a shame if Paul Nicholls elects to swerve Cheltenham. I'm not sure the owners will be too happy with that as they pay a lot of money for their horses to compete at the very top, and whether you like it or not, not many people see the Grand National meeting at Aintree as the making of a top class horse. One of the best jumpers we've seen so far this year, period. Bob OLinger was also seen on Saturday and didn't perform as well in the jumping department as the Paul Nicholls gelding. That said, he's clearly a work in progress and will get plenty of schooling in the meantime. Sticky at a number of fences, he possesses a massive engine and looks ready made for the Marsh Novices Chase, and you can be sure his jumping will only get better. Another who will also improve is My Drogo, who jumped well enough around Cheltenham but I didn't think as well as pundits commented on the TV. He didn't lift his back legs high enough for me, and seemed to trail his legs through, and that could be a worry in top class races if he continues to do it but it was a fair start before the unlucky fall. The clash with Bob OLinger in the Marsh looks mouth watering at this stage however, especially as both shown enough to suggest they will only improve and get better.

2 other horses worth following in the novice chase department have both faced each other already this season at Down Royal. The first is the winner of that said race, Lifetime Ambition, who looks a novice chaser to follow over middle distance trips this season. He jumped well and looks a really smart horse to follow for the Harrington stable. He is likely to run this weekend in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse. The other horse is the Gavin Cromwell trained VANILLIER, winner of the Albert Bartlett last season at the Festival. Whilst I don't think that form is out of this world, the fact that this novice is accumulating experience early doors stands him in good stead for the National Hunt Chase. Mentioned as his possible target by his trainer, it is likely to depend how he competes against other horses at the Leopardstown meeting at Christmas. A horse who can handle different conditions, he is a solid jumper and stays really well. All these traits are perfect for the National Hunt Chase and it could all depend if they can bag themselves a good amateur rider for March too. The other worry is that a win at Leopardstown in Christmas would move his target to the RSA, and with the lack of depth currently in that race right now it might sway the pendulum back to the RSA given he's a grade 1 winner already. I'd like to put him up but I'll wait for further plans from the trainer.

There are plenty more questions to be answered in the other races, however there are 2 races with selections I think are worth putting up from a long term point of view. Firstly the Stayers Hurdle, and I'm going with the horse who I was all over last season - giving another chance as I think there is unfinished business for him. THYME HILL disappointed in France last month and I'm easily happy to forgive that run. It wouldn't be my plan of action to take a horse to France so early in the season but there is plenty of money over there to be won, so que sera. He should of won the Stayers last season but for a small setback not long before the race, and given he's only had 11 runs under rules he won't of been bottomed like other 3 milers around. Some freaks can continue to perform consistently at the top level, but they are few and far between as plenty of horses get bottomed out after running over 3 miles at a high level too often. Whilst I don't think Thyme Hill is up there with Big Bucks, Inglis Drever et al, I don't think he's a million miles away and I think he's a step above the reigning champion Flooring Porter. Hopefully he has a light campaign with a run at Ascot in the Long Walk and then onto the Stayers, as I often feel a light campaign for 3 milers helps in March. Klassical Dream is the obvious danger, and I have it between those 2 with Sporting John a fair price at 20/1 (another with unfinished business), however Klassical Dream is only 4/1 and there's not much juice at his price. So at the 8/1, Thyme Hill is a good each way bet right now as he has so much class left to offer.

The other race I'm looking at getting involved with at this early stage is a race which lacks depth, and there are 2 horses I'm wanting to punt from an each way angle given they are both likely to contend this race. First up is a horse who I've already backed at 14/1, and that is the Grand National 2021 2nd BALKO DES FLOS. I didn't give this lad a chance of staying in the Grand National, as it looked like 3 miles was always a little far for him but he seems to of relaxed a lot more as he's got older, and caught the eye last time out over the cross country fences at the Open meeting last week with a staying on 5th. His trainer Henry De Bromhead had mentioned he was loving the cross country course last season when he unseated Rachael Blackmore mid race before his Grand National 2nd, and he seemed to love it last week too. Finishing 5th giving nearly 2 stone to the 4 infront of him, it was a cracking run which sets him up for a tilt at the big one in March. I'm not sure the plan for him going forwards through the depths of winter, but expect him to be primed for March edition at level weights, and crucially he could have the talent to dominate this race being a past Ryanair winner. I'd like to take Tiger Roll on as he must surely be coming to an end, whilst you can't guarantee the soft ground required for Easysland, another previous winner.

The other horse to put up, who might not have the class of the aforementioned horses but has been running around in big field handicaps as handy experience before his long term plan of competing in these unique bank/cross country races for his master trained Edna Bolger is the JP McManus owned SHADY OPERATOR. He never really hit the heights expected over fences in those big field lucrative handicaps, often going off shortened prices but never really fulfilling the promise that he had shown in glimpses in his novice career over hurdles and fences. However he has already won 2 races over a unique test with 2 wins in the banks races at Punchestown, and expect Derek O'Connor to be on board in this test in March after his win last time out over the banks in Ireland. He strikes me as a horse similar to Josies Order (winner of this race on paper), who will enjoy the different test this race gives horses and this might give him the licence to find another few pounds to compete in the finish in March. The trip won't be a worry, and he looks a horse who has been planned by his shrewd connections to be a work in progress for these races. Edna Bolger has only won this race once (on paper due to the DSQ of Any Currency) in 10 years, and it wouldn't surprise me if JP McManus has got a plan in his head to support Edna back to the winners enclosure at the Festival. Priced at 14/1, he's another worth a few shillings against the top 2 of the betting as another each way angle.

That's all for now with 3 selections, and another to keep in mind for when the bookmakers price up the market of the Martin Pipe. I'll be back in a couple of weeks with more selections, and we'll be counting down those days to being back the greatest place in the world, Cheltenham Racecourse.

Cheltenham Festival Selections

Thyme Hill - Stayers Hurdle - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Balko Des Flos - Cross Country Chase - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Shady Operator - Cross Country Chase - 1.5pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)