The Path to the Festival - ep1

We're now into November, and despite the National Hunt season being underway, heavy rain has already caused abandonments across the British Isles and into Ireland. The card at Down Royal this weekend looked excellent with plenty of novices in the hurdle and chase sphere on show. That's been moved to next week, and hopefully we see the same horses running.

Whilst we've not seen many horses who have cemented their Cheltenham hopes for March so far ar this stage, it's still worth starting off the Path to Cheltenham which will be a bi-weekly series taking a look at horses who've ran in recent weeks, antepost markets and providing some well researched winners (losers) for the big 4 days in March.

3 notable meetings in the last few weeks in the UK have been held at Chepstow, Cheltenham and Aintree. Chepstow provided a taste of what's to come with sone decent races, in which the standout had to be Captain Teague winning the grade 2 Persian War. He has to be a contender for a novice hurdle at March and will likely come into March following the Hermes Allen route being unbeaten. He'll likely be more hard trained when he's in his chasing campaign and is one to enjoy through the season rather than at Cheltenham.

Talking of Cheltenham, Prestbury Park held their first meeting of the season and Cheltenham Festival winners may be thin on the ground looking those results on paper. My Mate Mozzie is the type who may sneak into a place in the Arkle if everything falls his way at a fair price but won't be winning (see Gabynako), whilst his stablemate Encanto Bruno is a good horse but will be one for handicaps towards the spring. Speaking of handicaps, the best chance of a winner from said races on Friday/Saturday would be in handicaps in March and there are a couple to follow going through the season who If things fall their way could be contenders.

Idalko Bihoue was an impressive winner of the novice handicap chase but a big field would be a huge hindrance for this lad as he is a 'chancey' jumper - I hope he can get through the season without another F to his form figures. One I'd certainly add to the tracker would be Angels Breath, whether it's over hurdles or fences. The grey shaped like he still retained a huge amount of class travelling through a handicap hurdle like a dream before being done by a race fit rival giving well over 25lb to that winner. The grey gelding formerly trained by Nicky Henderson, and one time Supreme Novices Hurdle favourite, may finally reach his potential with an interrupted season. He has suffered numerous unfortunate injuries through his career which have stopped his progress, and might have a chance in the Coral Cup, or perhaps a Plate if they choose to go back over fences. Soft ground might be a requirement given his injury record, however he is one to consider going forward for handicaps.

Another one who might have the Plate as a target, if things don't fall his way through the season was the eye catching Notlongtillmay. Running over 2 miles he found the trip too sharp on Saturday. There's no doubt it was a fantastic prep run for the Paddy Power Gold Cup in a few weeks. Getting outpaced at the top of the hill over the 2 mile trip on Saturday, he found another gear and stayed on strong to the line. Nabbed for a place by another eyecatcher in In Excelsis Dio who flew late on, he may find himself running well in those middle distance handicaps at Cheltenham through the season, and could be a horse to follow up until March similar to horses such as Midnight Shadow, Fugitif or Coole Cody. Keep him in mind unless his handicap mark goes sky high and he has to compete in the Ryanair.

Gavin Cromwell had a great couple of days and his stable star Flooring Porter jumped well to win the 3 mile novice chase, and might be worth considering for the National Hunt Chase, however it's highly unlikely his connections will target that race given his grade 1 form over hurdles. I'd only give him a squeak in that race rather than the RSA as I expect his lack of scope and number of miles on the clock will hold him back in true Grade 1 company against young and improving novices.

Talking of the National Hunt Chase, 2 proper staying horses met over fences in a beginners chase at Galway over 2m6 in Affordale Fury and FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU, with the former coming out on top to score. It's likely Noel Meade will send Affordale Fury to the RSA given his cracking run in the Albert Bartlett, but it's the 2nd placed horse who interests me most at an appealing 25/1 currently for the 3m6f contest. The Gordon Elliott trained horse was sent off af 12/1 in the Albert Bartlett last season before pulling up, with the trainer saying he was too fresh and keen with his lack of a recent run being an excuse for his race antics. Turning 9 at the start of the year and lacking true Grade 1 class, it wouldn't surprise me to see him have a crack ar the National Hunt in March. An out and out stayer, he jumped well enough in his first outing over fences and as an ageing horse, and his breeding, he looks a fair fit for that race currently. He is worth a small poke at the 25/1 on offer with BetVictor at this early stage.

Another Irish trained horse I want to get into the opening stages of the blog book is also an older horse with a lightly raced profile in the shape of the Willie Mullins trained APPRECIATE IT. Priced at a juicy 50/1 in the Ryanair Chase and already earmarked as an early season target by connections. A horse who hasn't fulfilled his potential due to injuries himself, he suffered an up and down year last season over fences as a novice and might be a horse to follow as he improves through the season and irons out his novicey errors. A one time Suoreme Novices winner, he had his first season without interruption since that novice hurdle campaign (had a setback in 21/22 season with only one run) and that would stand him in good stead for his second season over fences. A one time Arkle favourite, he was exposed for his advancing years at 9 by the speedier El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle and moved up to the 2m4 trip in the Turners. Disappointing that day in 4th and in his next couple of starts at Fairyhouse and Punchestown, he hung left for pressure in all those starts after the Irish Arkle and I wonder if he may of had a small injury that prevented him from giving his all. A full MOT, a rest and a summer on his back might just rejuvenate this highly thought of gelding and the vibes seem good currently. The Ryanair looks his trip over the 2m5f and it's worth a chance at 50/1 with little lost if he doesn't fulfill his one time highly thought of potential. Another horse to keep in mind is Sir Gerhard at a big price however Willie Mullins gave him a negative shout and he may switch to hurdles if his early season exploits don't go to plan.

Bets

Favori De Champdou - National Hunt Chase - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 (BetVictor)

Appreciate It - Ryanair Chase - 50/1 (Skybet)