Some form races to concentrate on for the new National Hunt season

I won't be alone in counting down the days until Chepstow to kick off the National Hunt season proper, with a tasty November and December on the way to get us back into the swing of things. I'd say they are 2 of my most favourite months outside of March for the quality of racing, as the Hennessy, the 3 day Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham and the King George plus the bonanza at Leopardstown at Christmas all make sure that jumps racing fans are glued to the form book 24/7. I will do a horses to follow blog as is standard for many horse racing fans but I thought I might start doing something different by looking back at last season, and publishing my thoughts on races we should concentrate on in terms of potential top quality or interesting form to follow going through the next 6 months or so...

Ballymore Novices Hurdle - 2m5f - March 2021 @ Cheltenham Racecourse

Probably the most obvious race for fans to follow from a novice hurdle point of view. This race is likely to produce 4 top quality 155+ horses going forwards. Bob O'Linger was probably the most visually impressive performance across the 4 days at the Cheltenham Festival for me. Although Appreciate It ran out a 20+ lengths winner of the Supreme, the likelihood is that the Supreme was lacking any sort of depth, with Blue Lord, Ballyadam and For Pleasure likely to be good handicappers rather then graded animals going forwards. Bob O'Linger faced 3 other top notchers in Galliard Du Mesnil, Bravesmangame and Bear Ghylls. All 4 travelled through the race as high quality horses and all 4 will cement their class as novices chasers this year. Bear Ghylls was the unknown quality coming into the race but the way he went through the race suggests he's up to the standard of a grade 1 horse and could take high rank in the novice chase division as long as he can cut out his jumping errors. He doesn't look the most comfortable at times and it wouldn't surprise me if he goes back to hurdles in the mid season, if he doesn't take to fences. Even down to Keskonrisk and Does He Know, they won't be low grade quality, so it's worth following this race despite it being a more obvious one.

Champion Bumper - 2m - March 2021 @ Cheltenham Racecourse

Another obvious race to throw into the mix, however the bumper has been hit and miss at times throughout my love for the sport. Looking back at last year where Ferny Hollow won, outside of the front 2 (Appreciate It 2nd), it was hit and miss. 2019 was a strong year with Envoi Allen, whilst 2018, 2017 and 2016 were lacking any real depth. I think 2021's edition will be one of the stronger editions of the last 10 years. Sir Gerhard will be a Supreme novices contender, whilst Kilcruit looks well made for the Ballymore. These 2 will be 160+ horses alone, in my opinion. Looking further down, I'm really sweet on the mare Elle Est Belle for the Dawn Run novices hurdle this season coming, whilst Grangee will be another contender too. Three Stripe Life and Ramillies will be strong staying novices down the line, whilst Chemical Energy sluiced up in a average maiden hurdle the other day by 11 lengths. I would keep an open mind about all others too. I think going forwards this will be one of the strongest bumpers around, despite it maybe not reaching the heights of the Envoi Allen bumper, and it will pay it's way for the season whilst producing a handful of 150+ graded horses in the future.

Naas Business Novice Chase (Grade 3) - 3m1f - January 2021 @ Naas

A small field novice chase in Ireland that won't be in many peoples memories. Although hardly any of the horses in that race have put their stamp on the form going forwards, I do think there are a handful of them worth following this season as handicappers in those long distance staying chases.

The winner of said race was the impressive enough Eklat De Rire. Last seen unseating Rachael Blackmore at Cheltenham in the RSA, he was impressive enough in his 2 chases before that to show he had above average ability. Likely to be kept to small field novice chases before being thrown in the deep end (Might follow a route similar to Minella Indo in the early part of the season), I expect him to probably be a good handicapper and possibly a graded chaser by the end of the season. The same goes for Escaria Ten and Pencilfulloflead (2nd and 3rd at Naas). Escaria Ten is a proper staying chaser who was a fine 3rd in the National Hunt Chase before being thrown into the deep end in the Irish Grand National. I wouldn't write off any horse who undertakes that race as a novice and performs disappointingly as it's one of the roughest races in the calendar and I'm not a fan of Fairyhouse for a novice in a big field. Escaria Ten will be the type to contest those lucrative staying chases with perhaps the English or Irish Grand National on the cards again for him. I do think he has the ability to win a couple of Grade 2/3 small field chases on soft ground in the future however, given his trainer is astute at picking the right target. The same applies to Pencilfulloflead who I think can be a top quality handicapper, possibly even pushing graded standard. Not seen since January where he had a setback I believe, he may prefer going right handed and needs soft ground to be at his maximum, however it wouldn't surprise me to see him take a small field graded chase alongside his runs in the Irish Grand National or similar across the sea in Ireland. It's worth noting that Foxy Jacks who performed below par in that race won a solid handicap at the Punchestown Festival off 128.

Marsh Novices Chase - 2m4f - March 2021 @ Cheltenham Festival

Having looked back through various form lines and trying to ignore the obvious, it's very difficult in terms of races to follow that you know horses will improve this season. You can obviously find races last season that have gone onto bigger things but have the horses reached their ceiling with a view to improvement this season? That's the tricky bit for me. I will throw the Marsh from Cheltenham in as a strong enough race to follow for the season coming. I'd say it had the most depth to the novices chases on paper and probably will show that in the future.

The Marsh will be known in the coming years as the race where the heir to the throne of the best racehorse in training, Envoi Allen, fell. It was a tricky season for Envoi Allen, who performed well in all his novice chases before Cheltenham, as due to the Gordon Elliott incident days before the Festival - he was moved to De Bromhead. It was well known through various channels that Envoi had trouble settling in and seemed to take it badly compared to the others. Fresh, keen and giving Jack Kennedy trouble before and through the early stages of the race, he fell early on. I wouldn't give up on him although he's shown to the public that chinks are in his armour and the aura has drifted away from him slightly after his latest run at Punchestown where he pulled up. A refreshing summer will of done him well and I cannot wait to see him back.

The rest of the field in the Marsh, however, are no mugs. After the bubble had burst with Envoi, there seemed to be a bit of a deflating atmosphere amongst fans of the sport despite Chantry House announcing himself as a strong contender for graded chases this year. Chantry House devoured the ground in the latter part of the race to beat Fusil Raffles easily before following up with a smooth enough performance at Aintree. Fusil Raffles was reported lame at Aintree after his disappointing run there, whilst Asterion Forlonge put everything together to win a solid enough novice handicap chase off a lofty 152 to give more substance to the Marsh form. Chatham Street Lad won a graded chase at Limerick over 3 miles easily too. Whilst Blackbow and Darver Star (both well beaten in the Marsh) are unlikely to ever reach the heights that connections might think over fences compared to their bumper/hurdle days, they are still fair horses, whilst Shan Blue could be a lively contender for weak-ish looking King George this year. It's worth noting that he may of been over the top at the end of the season after some gruelling front running performances throughout the early to middle parts of the season especially that Scilly Isles run a few weeks before Cheltenham.

On paper, this will be the strongest novice chase race in terms of depth (Monkfish and Shishkin are obvious top quality horses from the other 2 novices), and I expect most of the horses in the Marsh to perform to 150+ standard.