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There is just over a week until 3 days of the season which every National Hunt fan enjoys, with the upcoming Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting nearly upon us. 2 handicaps to get your teeth stuck into are the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Greatwood Hurdle, 2 premier handicaps that always produce form worth following through the season. 2 antepost selections await at double figure odds, so let's get on with it.
Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase - 2m4f
I had NOTLONGTILLMAY on my mind for this in the summer, having finished a good 2nd in an average renewal of the Turners Novice Chase in March. He may be handicapped to the top of his ability off 152 but I expect him to run a solid race after doing just that in his first outing of the season in a 2 mile handicap chase at the showcase meeting at Cheltenham last month. Pushed along at the top of the hill and tapped for pace by the winner, he stayed on well up the hill and was nabbed for 3rd late on.
He will face an old nemesis in Stage Star, the winner of said Turners in March, and will get 3lb off him in this upcoming contest. However you have to go back to 2015 to find a horse who won this race without a prep run, and Notlongtillmay's race fitness may count for a fair bit at the end of the race when the going gets tough. Stage Star is trained by Paul Nicholls, who can do things with horses not many others can, so Stage Star will no doubt have a huge chance. You can also give a chance to The Real Whacker, the RSA winner, who jumps well and gallops horses into submission (rated 162 which will be a hindrance) and if you can forgive his run as a pipe opener to gain his confidence, My Drogo can put up a big showing. The same goes for Datsalrightgino who was a fairly classy novice chaser over middle distances like Notlongtillmay.
However Notlongtillmay has the right profile for this race, with a run under his belt, a solid jumper and a horse who tries hard in the finish. My vote will go to the Laura Morgan trained gelding at an each way price of 14/1 in an open contest.
Notlongtillmay - 1.5pts ew @ 14/1 (Bet365)
Greatwood Handicap Hurdle - 2m1/2f
Having had a look at the Greatwood, it's not the best of races, and just like last year I expect to see the potential class act win it this year. Last year I Like To Move It stole the show winning it off the top weight before going on to better things, and i think the same will happen to graded winner LOOKAWAY, albeit off a much lower weight. The Neil King trained gelding was the talking horse coming away from the aforementioned showcase meeting at Cheltenham last month winning a below par Grade 2 novice hurdle, however the manner of his win caught the eye of many, and me, when he hit the line strong making all. Given a 10lb hike, he's probably got at least 8lb in hand to my eye off 132 and he might have the chance to stack these up and power up the hill again.
A good jumper of hurdles gaining vital experience last season despite the season not going to plan, it's well documented the struggles his trainer had last season with the yard, which explains his below par runs and low handicap mark, and he could be back here in March to take part in one of the graded hurdles if he progresses as expected. I expect a big show and 12/1 appeals as a solid each way bet.
Other horses to consider are the JP McManus/Nicky Henderson pairing of Under Control and Iberico Lord. Both could have strong chances if they turn up, but one that probably has been targeted at the race by his shrewd trainer is BYKER. The Charles Bryne trained gelding was an unlucky 2nd in the Fred Winter at the Festival in March, and had a pipe opener at Sligo last month. With Philip Brynes 5lb claim he'll run off 127 and will be well primed to run a big race. This is the time you want to catch him I feel.
Lookaway- 1.5pts ew @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes,Coral)
Byker - 1pt ew @ 16/1 (Bet365)
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