Longshots 30/12/23

After a decent Christmas racing period with a number of Cheltenham clues on offer, we have our last Saturday's racing of 2023. Newbury holds their annual Challow Novice Hurdle day, and it looks a strong renewal this year with the exciting Willmount the outright favourite. I was thinking he would be a Supreme horse for connections but I'm assuming Nicky Henderson, his trainer, wants to keep him and his other potential star novice Jeriko Du Reponet apart. Jeriko Du Reponet also runs in an introductory hurdle, but he will need a proper test before Cheltenham if he's to toughen up for a race like the Supreme. I think Secret Squirrel can give him a decent race however, and we'll be able to see what's underneath the bonnet and a glimpse of Jeriko Du Reponet's real ability.

I've been having problems with publishing these blogs on Wix, so I pulled the Ballyadam blog who was a 0.5pts win selection in the 3 mile graded hurdle at Leopardstown and he finished a creditable 3rd. That's reflected in the profit and loss at the bottom of the blog.

1:50 Newbury - 2m4 1/2 f - Coral Handicap Hurdle

RAMBO T was a previous selection at the Hennessy meeting in early December, catching the eye travelling well before weakening. It was a different race to his run at Cheltenham in a October where he stayed on well over 2m4. Maybe he just needs a middle distance, as he hasn't stayed the trip on both his tries at 3 mile under rules. I'll chance him again as he's shown a liking for the track where he can travel well and hopefully he offers a finishing kick this time. He's certainly handicapped to win a race as there are bits and pieces of form to suggest he has a few pound in hand if things fall right.

Whether he's up to beating horses like Get A Tonic, Irish Hill or Steal A March is up for debate however. Get A Tonic looks capable of winning this with a soft lead but is priced accordingly. Irish Hill is running with first time cheekpieces, runs off a winning mark but I wonder if he'll be aimed at an Ascot handicap he won last year. Whilst Steal A March runs first time out. One to follow in a lower grade handicap would be Silent Revolution, when dropped in class. A tentative win bet goes to Rambo T.

Bets:

Rambo T - 0.75pts win @ 7/1 (Bet365)

2:25 Newbury - 3m2f - Mandarin Handicap Chase (0-135)

A decent Mandarin on offer at Newbury tomorrow with Atlanta Brave heading the betting. He is better than his handicap mark of 121, and should be involved in the finish here. He's likely to be a slow burner over fences however and whilst his price of 6/1 is tempting - he's best watched.

Certainly Red is capable of winning a handicap but has to give weight all round, whilst Bowtogreatness is likely to be well backed with punters given his fine 2nd in a 3 mile handicap chase at Aintree finishing 2nd to Midnight River. That's decent form.

Certainly Red and Bowtogreatness both have to give weight all round to some horses who are capable of plunging this race and my strongest bet of the day is a horse who gets 10lb plus from both. YES INDEED has been a frustrating horse for connections since his move from France to the United Kingdom for his trainer Jonjo O'Neill but has always looked capable of threatening in a decent handicap and I believe this race might suit him perfectly as long as the ground isn't bottomless.

A one time highly rated youngster who competed in graded chases in France, he won a listed race over fences for the master French trainer Macaire. He hasn't got his head Infront over obstacles in the UK since his move but has run creditably at Newbury a couple of times with a couple of 2nd placed finishes. Rated 142 when moving to England by the British handicapper, he's now dropped to a rating of 125 and with a bit of luck he can run a big race here. It's conceivable that he could be a dodgepot, and needs to be dropped in class to get his head Infront, but he ran an eye catching race first time out at Carlisle before bombing out in atrocious conditions at Bangor a couple of weeks ago. Granted things will need to fall his way perfectly here, however he can run a decent race tomorrow and might hit the frame at 12/1 with 4 places being paid.

Another small shout goes to SHANTY ALLEY who finished 2nd to the ill-fated Grumpy Charley in this race last year, and is now on a 5lb lower mark but this might be a better race. He's worth a small win only bet.

Bets:

Yes Indeed - 1.25pts ew @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Shanty Alley - 0.5pts win @ 11/1 (Betfair)

2:35 Haydock - 2m3f - Betfred Handicap Hurdle (0-135)

I'd been tempted to stick JASON THE MILITANT up in his last run where he finished down the field at Haydock, but decided not to. He went off 50/1 and ran no sort of race.

He runs tomorrow on his favoured bottomless ground over the same trip, and with first time cheekpieces I'm going to have a small punt on him. We had some luck with a front running Phil Kirby horse at Haydock a few days ago in Bushypark, and perhaps a front running ride off a mark of 127 (conditional claims 5lb) may spark this one time Grade 2 winner back to some kind of form.

I think the key to him is bottomless ground, which he'll get at Haydock after weeks of atrocious weather and despite not putting in any kind of performance since a win on the flat in heavy ground back in 2021, perhaps he just needs to come down in the handicap and get his ideal conditions to get his confidence back.

Start In Front gets a mountain of weight from his contenders, and has form in soft ground, so is probably worth his place at the top of the market. Thereisnodoubt ran on in bottomless ground at Sandown and loves this ground, so must be a threat, whilst Cheddleton has been threatening to win a handicap for about 2 years. The horse I'd side with as the win only bet is Punta Del Este, he needs to go up in trip on soft ground and as long as he handles bottomless conditions (disappointed at Sandown last time on heavy) he should win off a mark of 121 minus 5lb from the conditional. I will however take a punt on Jason the Militant who gets his ideal conditions and may just try and burn them off from the front.

Bets:

Jason the Militant - 0.75pts ew @ 25/1 (Bet365)

Longshots Profit and Loss:

+18.45