Longshots 27/01/24

The jumps season is flying by. We're already at the end of January and next week will mark 6 weeks until the Festival. It genuinely feels like the other day it was the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham in November. We now have trials day this weekend which looks a good one, but I seriously cannot wait for the Dublin Racing Festival next weekend which looks Cheltenham-esque packed into 2 days. It's getting bigger and bigger by the year, and every race looks mouthwatering.

We haven't had many longshot blogs since the turn of the year due to abandonments, however there was a longshot antepost blog on Monday which put up Bronn. The weight told with Bronn and he pulled up. He just looks like a horse who isn't at it this season, but looks the type who'll pop up at a big price sometime in the future when it's not expected.

I'm finding it harder then ever to get winners at big prices these days especially with the small field sizes, so may need to look at lower prices such as the selections below until the spring festivals. Whilst there is each way value around, you tend to find that you only hit places at best and given the small profit only from horses in the 10/1 to 20/1 bracket - is it really worth it? Racing needs a huge shake up to be more competitive for punters, but it has such deep rooted problems, will it ever return to its glory days? I doubt it. I think the only way you can bet huge prices and make a profit are at the big meetings, and that's getting even harder over the jumps as the big meetings are few and far between compared to the flat which has plenty more selection.

12:40 Cheltenham - 2m41/2f - Timeform Novices Handicap Chase

I backed ES PERFECTO on Boxing Day at Kempton, and I'll side with him again. He's not trading at double digits so he's a little on the short side for a Longshots blog but I'll take a chance at 7/1 that he'll be given a little more of a prominent ride this time at Cheltenham. A staying on 3rd at Kempton, Gavin Sheehan probably gave his mount a little too much to do as he was held up last throughout. It's difficult to make up a huge amount of ground at Kempton, and this track will suit better. Although he is held by Ginny's Destiny and Blow Your Wad this season, who both run here, they have to give well over a stone each to Es Perfecto and he runs off a lovely racing weight of 10st 3lb. He is sure to win off his official rating of 123 at sometime this season, and I expect him to go close here. However I wonder whether his sights will need to be lowered if he doesn't strike here. A good jumper, he may not be as classy as some in this field, however I'll take a chance at 7/1 given the weight he gets off his rivals.

I did toy with Unexpected Party at 16/1 from an each way point of view but I think this horse is a little tripless, and probably need a smaller field where he can bully lesser horses. Theatre Man is interesting with a drop down in trip too given he's been a little keen over 3 miles in his 2 attempts over fences. Good race.

Bets:

Es Perfecto - 1pt win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

11:50 Doncaster - 2m1/2f - SKB Handicsp Chase (0-150)

CALICO looks set to get his favoured conditions and I expect him to take this lucrative handicap tomorrow en-route to an attempt at plunging the Grand Annual at the Festival. He needs good ground to be at his best, and conditions just didn't suit him at Cheltenham last time out where it was soft underfoot. He already has winning course form at Doncaster on his favoured good ground, and if you go back to his first run of the season where he was nailed late on by Triple Trade in November - this is decent form to follow as Triple Trade as gone on to win again at Ascot.

Running off a mark of 142 this weekend, a further positive is that Tristan Durrell takes off 3lb and he is definitely worth his claim, whilst his trainer Dan Skelton has been in good form recently too. I expect Calico to dictate from the front and burn these all off on his favoured ground. Traprain Law looks an improver off 130 but it was a poor enough race he won last time out, whilst Funambule Sivola has won this race before and is well handicapped with Ned Fox's claim but this will be a prep run for the Game Spirit (won that in the last 2 years) so there might be a little left to work on for that race and Dan Skelton will be desperate to bag this 26k race for Calico's connections and should be bang on to win this. I'll side with Calico as a strong bet at the 5/1 on offer.

Bets:

Calico - 2pts win @ 5/1 (William Hill)

Longshots Profit and Loss:

+15.1pts (To advised stakes)