Longshots 26/12/23

What a day Saturday was for the blog. Bushypark put up at 14/1, makes all from the front to win the closing race at Haydock. It was some dogged finish by the old boy, who toughed it out on his favoured heavy ground. Dr Kananga ran ok and wasn't helped by a loose horse throughout. and will need dropping in the handicap but is likely to pick one up soon enough on soft/heavy ground. It puts the Longshots blog up to +14.15pts in profit to advised stakes. You can't ask for much more then that. Boxing Day looks a cracking day of racing, although there will be too much going on, especially on RacingTV, which makes it hard to keep up through the day. However hopefully there are a few bets below which may reward punters who fancy a bet on a Boxing Day extravaganza.

1:45 Leopardstown - 2m - Dornan Group Novice Handicap Hurdle

Any long term readers of the blog will be aware of the Peter Fahey trained SHOWMAN, who was tipped up on a Longshots blog back in November. He was also put up in the tracker a couple of weeks ago, and I'm very hopeful we'll be rewarded at double digit odds here at Leopardstown.

Last seen at the November meeting at Cheltenham, he ran no race and coincidentally drifted from 8/1 to 14/1 before the off. His form stacks up well with 2 horses in particular who've gone on to support the form in the last few weeks. Yeats Star (won twice since) and Conyers Hill (ran well in a listed handicap hurdle) have both given a solid base to Showman's recent form (ignoring Cheltenham of course), and with the jockey claiming a cool seven pounds, it means Showman effectively runs off a mark of 104. He rates a solid each way bet with 6 places on offer at 14/1.

Belgoprince has a favourites chance, and probably has been laid out for this race. Strangely after 2 years he runs off the same mark as he did when he finished a nose in this said race back in 2021. Park of Kings will of been plotted up too, whilst Lazer Wolf has a chance. If there is one lurking at a double digit price that can run a big race, then maybe it's Striking. He may of been clobbered with a mark of 121 (gets 7lb less for his jockeys claim) but his form isn't the worst, and he can run well at 10/1. The big shout however goes to Showman to run a big race, and he rates a strong each way bet.

Bets:

Showman - 1.5pts ew @ 14/1 (Bet365, Skybet paying 6 places)

2:55 Leopardstown - 2m1f - By Racing Post Handicap Chase

Willie Mullins has the favourite Chavez who's priced at 9/4, and plenty of punters will be getting stuck into a 9/4 Mullins favourite. This isn't really the sort of blog that wants to put up 9/4 shots but Chavez didn't convince me that he was in love with chasing when last seen in January winning by just the 25 lengths. I'll take him on although he most probably is better then a mark of 132, but clearly hasn't been the easiest to train with plenty of injuries affecting him throughout his young career.

There are a couple of lurkers in the race at bigger prices including The Greek, who won over hurdles at this meeting in 2021, whilst I really like The Big Chap who made a bad mistake early on last time out which knocked him out the race - he's a tough horse. Path D'oroux definitely has a big handicap in him if things drop for him over hurdles or fences, but his jumping leaves a lot to be desired. Snake Oil is the same, whilst most racing fans know Cayd Boy has been constantly teed up for a handicap over fences but always flatters to deceive. He's a funny character and might pop up at a big price sometime in the future when punters desert him.

The main selection goes to THE FOLKES TIARA in the hope he builds on his first outing of the season where he jumped and travelled before fading badly at Fairyhouse. 2nd in this race last year off a mark of 116 to a well handicapped Final Orders (rated 128 here but was rated 150 at the end of last season), hopefully Henry has targeted this race for him after his pipe opener and rates an each way bet at 9/1. Rachael Blackmore on board is a big plus and although he's been raised 8lb from last years mark without winning, that's been in good company and he has a big race in him this season over fences if he can put it all together.

Bets:

The Folkes Tiara - 1pt ew @ 9/1 (Bet365)

11:55 Aintree - 2m4f - William Hill Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-120)

A token selection in the first at Aintree however I do wonder if a first time wind operation and first time out might be the best time to catch ROYALE DANCE after she switched yards to Noel Williams. She was rated by her past trainer Dan Skelton, but disappointed a few times after her opening debut win in a novice hurdle including disappointing in a handicap at Newbury.

A current mark of 110 may be lenient if the wind operation works but it is a competitive field. Cherie D'Am for example is likely much better then 115, but she is still a young and inexperienced horse. The same goes for Ah Whisht. Poetic Music could be well treated with the conditional jockey taking off 7lb and runs off a mark of 110, but is best watched transferring back to hurdles after a disappointing start over fences in October. She is probably overpriced at 15/2, whilst I would take on the current favourite. However a small tentative selection goes to Royale Dance each way at 20/1 with Skybet paying 4 places.

Bets:

Royale Dance - 0.75pts ew @ 20/1 (Skybet paying 4 places)

*Prices correct as of 17:50 24/12/23

Those are 3 selections at decent prices to back on the Boxing Day madness, however it would be remiss of me not to mention the King George. Bravemansgame owes me nothing after I backed it antepost in January 2022 and served me up a few quid as a festive treat when he won so impressively last year. If he can repeat that run he should go close but there are question marks over the whole field including him. I wouldn't be surprised to see a turn up happen, but no doubt it will be a festive treat to watch for all racing fans. I'll side with a token bet on Bravemansgame to win, but it would be great to see the 2 class acts Allaho and Shishkin run well and win as well. In other races, Il Est Francais is an interesting runner in the Kauto Star - it would be good to see him run well against 2 other good novices. The best treat of all could be seeing Constitution Hill confirm his world class ability again in a new season, and I hope he does just that.

Hope you all have a very Merry Christmas.