Longshots 19/11/23

Mixed couple of days with the Longshots blog at Cheltenham. Prince Zaltar finished 6th at 33/1 to provide some place cash for the blog on the first day, where he made eye catching progress late on after having to make up a considerable amount of ground late on. Whilst on Saturday, Grandads Cottage wasn't given any sort of chance being left at the start (worth following as he made up a lot of ground and got hampered before fading), whilst Chambard finished 2nd. Angels Breath ran a stinker and might be better staying over hurdles in the big race. That leaves us back in a negative loss of -0.55pts, not the worst but hopefully our luck turns and we can bag a winner in the coming weeks.

Cheltenham 3:00 - 2m1/2f - Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle

A potential handicap blot lurks dangerously for bookmakers at the top of the prices here in the Willie Mullins trained Onlyamatteroftime and on paper given his connections, he'll probably scoot in by 5L off a lowly rating of 115. You'll probably know your fate if you've backed him by his price close to the off. He'll either win at 7/4f or drift out to 16s and finish last.

I probably didn't give it enough credit in my antepost blog, but it does seem a strong race with Too Friendly, Anyharminasking and Sonigino all trading at 20/1+ which gives it a good amount of depth. A horse trading at 20/1, and worth following due to his connections is the Paul Nicholls trained AFADIL. The big race today was won by said trainer and it would be remiss of me not to follow him in Sunday's big race too. Reported to of 'badly needing' the run in his disappointing 7th over similar track and distance last month, it's always worth following Nicholls when he specifically targets a race, and the trainer will have him really primed for this race. He's worth a go at his odds.

I put LOOKAWAY up at 12/1 in the antepost blog for the Greatwood and is now a tasty 14/1 currently as we speak. I think it's worth taking a little bit more of that as I'm scratching my head as to why he's drifted as I think he's got a great chance. Rated 132, he's still got a few pounds in hand and is worth a further each way bet.

Bets:

Afadil - 1.25pts ew @ 22/1

Lookaway - 0.75pts ew @ 16/1

Already Advised:

Lookaway 1.5pts @ 12/1

2:30 Navan - 3m - Troytown Handicap Chase

My record of punting in Ireland is as bad as Everton's record at Anfield, so you'll have to stay away from this one if you have any sort of brain. The nod goes to horse who'll surely win one of this this year, but he equally is also likely to always be a nearly horse. AIN'T THAT A SHAME has been a punters favourite over the last season or 2, being punted into favourite for some big handicap chases in Ireland, whilst he went off 10/1 in the Grand National last season. Last seen running in the Kerry National, he was beaten into 9th that day and should come on from that. Without a doubt he has the ability to win one of these big handicaps this season, and he should love the conditions tomorrow.

A small poke at 11/1 with 5 places on offer, and if he gets sone luck then I expect him to finally land an elusive big one.

Bets:

Ain't That A Shame - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 (Coral)