We are writing this on the eve of the first day of the November meeting and there is a deluge of rain forecasted for the Prestbury Park area which means the ground could be bordering soft to heavy by Saturday lunchtime. There are 3 bets im interested in at the moment with all trading at double digits.
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1:10 Cheltenham - 3m1f Amateur Jockeys Handicap Chase (0-140)
Strictlyadancer surely has a great chance after his solid run at the Showcase meeting last month but the rain must be a real question mark for him. His wins have come at worst on good to soft, so I'll be swerving him here. He must have a win in him soon enough. Brampton Belle will love the conditions too. Both of these are priced at 8s so a little on the short side for this blog as I prefer to try and hit the double digits as a minimum.
2 I'll take at the current prices starting with a former Cheltenham Festival winner trained by the in-form Venetia Williams, and that is CHAMBARD. Winner of the 2022 Kim Muir at the Festival, he hasn't got his head Infront since that day and has now dropped to a capable mark. There are huge question marks on the ground for many of these, if the rain does arrive, and he'll enjoy any rain that comes down between now and the race. Lucy Turner on board, with Venetia Williams being in cracking form, and he is likely to of been aimed at this by his trainer as one of his main targets. His last run finishing a solid 4th on good ground at the April meeting shows he is coming back down to a capable mark and should run well at 12/1 with bookies paying 5 places.
Another runner who will love the ground is GRANDADS COTTAGE, who steps up for his first run over 3 miles. A full brother to Super Duty (2nd in the Kim Muir in 2013), he's bred to get the trip and will enjoy any rain. I'm by no means a huge Olly Murphy fan at the moment as I always find his horses very hard to catch, but I'll take a chance that this gelding will enjoy the considerable step up in distance. A lightly raced 8 year old who's suffered a few problems in his career, he's only raced 9 times under rules and this race is a huge step up in trip as he's often been winning over middle distances at Wetherby. Despite this, it's worth a go at the price of 12/1 in the hope the step up in trip will bring about more improvement on his favoured ground.
Bets:
Chambard 1.25pts ew @ 14/1 (365, Hills paying 5 places)
Grandads Cottage 1pt ew @ 22/1 (Skybet)
2:20 Cheltenham - 2m4f Paddy Power Handicap Chase
If you've been a reader of this website in the past few days you'll of seen me put up Notlongtillmay at a tasty 14/1 (now 7/1) for this race. He's got as good a chance as any in the field although heavy ground would be a worry for him in my mind as he hasn't proved himself beyond this trip yet. Stage Star and The Real Whacker both have excellent chances too, whilst Easy As That could run a good race for the aforementioned Venetia Williams who is in superb form.
However I wrote about this very horse last week in the Path to Cheltenham as a horse to keep in mind for a handicap going forwards and this lad won't mind any rain either. ANGELS BREATH, one time Supreme favourite, looks well weighted to run a cracker on Saturday after an eye catching 2nd in a handicap hurdle in October. As we know, he's been a horse plauged with injuries and has only run over fences 4 times in his life, once where he sustained a life threatening injury at Ascot back in 2019.
One positive for this horse this season is that he's been able to have a full rest in the summer, after a stop-start campaign last season, and now a full pre season to get fit under his new trainer (first run for Sam Thomas in January), and has no doubt strengthened and filled out physically which will serve him well for the season ahead. If he can translate his hurdle run in October to fences, he must have a squeak off 144 and I expect him to win a big race this season over obstacles (hurdles or fences).
Bets:
Angels Breath 1.25pts ew @ 11/1 (Bet365 paying 5 places)
Already Advised 07/11/23:
Notlongtillmay 1.5pts ew @ 14/1
PRICES WILL BE UPDATED ON RACEDAY MORNINGS
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