Longshots 17/11/23

I'm already quite annoyed starting this blog. Last Saturday was a poor day for the Longshots blog, and I gave away my profit with 4 poor selections. The problem is I'm trying to find bets that aren't there, and I will stop doing that from now on. Personally I'm a selective punter and it's rare for me to have a bet unless I feel absolutely certain I'm taking the right price and I feel the horse is there to run for his life. Still, we will go through periods of losing bets due to the nature of this blog. Big priced winners are harder to come by especially these days with all the information that is around, and you will often have to wait for the weekends to get that value in big field handicaps for instance. Let's have a look at Day 1 at the November meeting at Cheltenham, 3 days of glorious racing at HQ is on our doorstep - however I have to admit I am disappointed by some of the competitiveness in some of the races.

1:10 Cheltenham - 2m5f Handicap Hurdle (0-125)

A trappy contest to start with although a number of runners catch my eye, albeit at fairly short odds for this blog - thus meaning my attention will have to drift elsewhere. Uncle Bert looks a solid bet for punters with plenty of form which catches the eye and he will appreciate the better conditions compared to his last run at Chepstow where he ran respectably on heavy ground. Henry De Bromhead runs an lightly raced horse open to improvement in Gentle and Kind, whilst Off To A Flyer looks better then a mark of 120.

I'll chance my arm with a couple of Irish raiders at double digit prices despite them both being tentative selections. PRINCE ZALTAR has had a fruitful 2023 winning 2 handicaps over hurdles whilst running well in 4 other handicap hurdles. Running off 121, he might be handicapped to the top of his ability but I think he'll outrun his odds if he's there at the end of things tomorrow. Not seen since an outing in July at Killarney, he made a number of mistakes that day that didn't help his cause, however it's his previous run before that at Ballinrobe that catches my eye. A handicap hurdle won by Lunar Power (a one time Triumph Hurdle hope), Prince ZALTAR had horses such as Power of Pause, A Great View (won since), Fruit Blossom (Won twice since) and Gold Speed (won since beating Bugs Moran and Buddy One) around him finishing a solid 5th that day. You can also see other future winners including Ambitious Fellow from that race down the field, so it's a race that has strong form to follow onwards. If Prince Zaltar jumps well, is fit enough coming off a long break and the ground doesn't turn too soft - he can outrun his odds of 14/1.

Next up is an Irish raider who ran at the Showcase meeting last month called ARABIAN KING, who was last seen running over a similar class and distance handicap not disgracing himself finishing 5th. It was a sound enough run by the New Approach gelding after 3 runs on the flat, and that should put him spot on for a decent run here. Dropped 1lb since, this is probably a stronger race but with 6 places on offer, he is not without a shout to run better here and might just shock a few at a big price. It is worth noting that was only his 8th run over obstacles and is open to some improvement off a low enough mark given his consistent enough form over the last few months.

Bets:

Prince Zaltar 1.25pts ew @ 33/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power 6 places)

Arabian King 1pt ew @ 25/1 (William Hill 5 places)

4:05 Cheltenham - 2m1/2f Handicap Hurdle (0-125)

Another trappy handicap hurdle and I've not gone over it with a fine tooth comb by any means, however I'll chance another couple of Irish raiders.

First up is the Irish raider SEQUOIASPIRIT who's had a fruitful campaign through the summer despite not winning over hurdles. He has a few bits of form which suggest he can run well off 119. 3rd behind Shecouldbeanything with Vischio behind (won on the flat off 88) and Mighty Tom Infront, whilst a good 5th in a competitive handicap behind 4 decent horses including Buddy One and Bugs Moran in September. A consistent performer both over obstacles and on the flat, I think he can run a big race with 5 places being on offer.

SHOWMAN is another Irish runner making the trip over the Irish Sea and comes off the back of 2 runs back to back including a win over Yeats Star (who shit up in a maiden hurdle since). He then ran well to finish a head behind Conyers Hill in a handicap 10 days ago and might be well treated off effectively a mark of 105 with the conditional riders claim. Coincidentally the claimer Eamonn Fitzgerald has been on in his last 2 runs including his maiden hurdle win and that's a real positive. He looks nicely handicapped here to run well, and if Skradin runs well in the first race at Cheltenham tomorrow that could be a further pointer towards this fella running well as he had said gelding behind him in that handicap 10 days ago at Cork.

Small shout goes to Brook Bay who's been in the tracker since his run at Chepstow whilst Belgoprince might of been primed for this having run well in this same race back in 2021, with injury setting this chap off for a couple of years. His shrewd trainer will no doubt have had this race in mind.

Bets:

Sequoiaspirit 1.25pts ew @ 20/1 (Bet365, Hills 5 places)

Showman 1pt win @ 11/1 (Bet365.

Longshots Profit and Loss:

+0.20

PRICES UPDATED AS OF 12pm