Longshots 13/01/24

Last weekends longshot selection ran no sort of race in a really underwhelming weekend of action on the jumps. Partly due to the abandonment at Sandown but after such a top class festive period it was a big comedown. On a positive note we do have a decent weekend of racing with 3 decent meetings at Kempton, Warwick and Fairyhouse including a good field for the Silviniaco Conti chase.

3:35 Warwick - 3m - Unibet Veterans Handicap Chase

The rescheduled veterans chase lands at Warwick this weekend after it's abandonment last weekend at Sandown due to a waterlogged course. Any readers of the blog will of seen the antepost selection for this race in the days leading up to Sandown was LORD DU MESNIL, and we won't be losing the faith in Richard Hobson's gelding this weekend either.

He's currently priced at 16/1 with 5 places on offer, and that's a few points bigger then the 10/1 on offer in the antepost blog. I'm not really sure why he's a bigger price, as he's even more comfortable on a left handed galloping track (all wins have been left handed). The question mark would be the drying ground, however the going stick suggests it's going to be really testing (4.3 on the going stick) and the bitter conditions will make the ground more tacky than fast which suits an all stamina runner like the tough and genuine Lord Du Mesnil. I expect him to take a prominent position throughout, and he will likely be there when the going gets tough at the latter end of the race. The big field won't be a problem to him either, and this tough gelding comes off the back of a cracking run over a middle distance trip at Cheltenham. Keep the faith lads.

Not included in the original scheduled race at Sandown, however TOP VILLE BEN has been confirmed for this race now and I expect a decent run from him off a low weight. Rated 130 now, he runs off 10 stone 5lb but also gets the added bonus of man of the moment Joe Williamson's conditional weight allowance of an extra 5lb being taken off. Still in good heart for a 12 year old, he ran a decent race in a veterans handicap at Aintree on Boxing Day over 2m4f and the extra 4 furlongs will only suit. It was only 11 months ago where he ran a cracker off a mark of 135 in a 2m5f handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival, and he's still got a big run in him . Give him a small chance here at 20/1.

Bets:

Lord Du Mesnil - 1.25pts ew @ 16/1 (Coral)

Top Ville Ben - 0.5pts ew @ 20/1 (Coral)

2:42 Kempton - 2m5f - Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle

The top 3 in the betting are classy animals and the competitive Lanzarote should go the way of one of those 3. Sonigino and Nemean Lion are 2 tough handicappers who will run their race, whilst Impose Toi should enjoy the step up in trip given his Ascot run last time out and off 134 he should have the ability to nail this. However I'll put up a small tentative selection who caught the eye last time out, and might just enjoy this track and ground.

KALEB went into my notebook after his run at Cheltenham over 2 miles, and tomorrows step up in trip might just play to his advantage on a flat track where he's already run a couple of decent races albeit in lower level handicaps. This season he's run 3 creditable races over a 2 mile trip including in the aforementioned handicap at Cheltenham which included some decent horses, and has shown an apitude to finish off his race well in all 3 races this season which suggests the step up in trip might just help him a little more. Rated 123, he's not got plenty in hand granted but the conditions might bring about abit of improvement, and Kempton should suit this gelding better then Cheltenham to stay the distance. 33/1 is a tempting price as a small tentative each way shout especially with 7 places on offer with Skybet.

Bets:

Kaleb - 0.5pts ew @ 33/1 (Skybet 7 places)

Longshots 23/24 Profit and Loss:

+18.60pts (to advised stakes)