Longshots 10/02/24

There's been a great deal of rain this week in the United Kingdom, and Newbury will be heavy all over by the first race tomorrow. Hopefully they don't get extreme amounts today, and the racing will still be on - as the Betfair Hurdle is one of the better handicaps of the year and always enjoyable.

1.30 Newbury - 3m - Betfair Handicap Hurdle (0-140)

Already 2 non-runners in this race and they were the 2 at the top of the market when the opening prices were published. Kyntara looks the rightful favourite after some consistent runs this season already. Equinus was a selection in this blog last weekend at Sandown but was a non-runner due to travel problems, I don't think he wants this ground however. Im half tempted to put up the old timer On The Blind Side as he goes in this ground and still retains some of his old ability. I missed the 40s so will leave it.

Instead I'll side with IKARAK, who has shown he handles this ground this season, and in his native France in his early career. He found Cheltenham on his last outing a bit of an eye opener in a big field handicap but still ran ok race in 6th and finished around Springwell Bay (won since) and The Newest One, who has also ran a decent race since. He runs off 10st8lb with his jockeys claim, and given the ground I do prefer horses who run off lower weights in these sorts of handicaps where weight may tell, given there aren't any top class horses running who are guaranteed to shoulder the weight.

Bets:

Ikarak- 1pt ew @ 8/1 (William Hill 4 places)

3:15 Newbury - 2m1/2f - Betfair Hurdle (Handicap)

Altobelli was an antepost selection at the beginning of the week, and was a 2pts each way selection at 12/1. Given the rain this week, that looks a cracking bet as he's been screaming out for soft ground. Whether he wants bottomless ground is another thing, but I'm confident we will see a big run from Harry Fry's runner.

The handicap is really compressed in this race with the top 13 in the race being separated by just over half a dozen pounds in weight. There are some seriously decent horses in this field that could have a few pound in hand including Altobelli, Lookaway, Iberico Lord and the Willie Mullins favourite Ocastle Des Mottes who could be anything off a mark of 133 just to name a few. I expect the winner to come from the classy types but the ground might find plenty out especially those shouldering big weights like the mares Luccia and Under Control.

L'Eau Du Sud does interest me but I'm assuming he suffered an injury after his run in the Greatwood and might come on from this. He will like the soft ground however. Onlyamatteroftime clearly has his problems but could be dangerous off 115 still, and he's not discounted as he could easily handle heavy ground (mainly raced on better ground). The one sticking out as a massive price especially with William Hill paying 7 places and that's JILAIJONE, who's priced at a massive 66/1. Hes run a number of consistent races this year already, and has shown an aptitude for soft ground having run well at Chepstow (October) and in France alresdy this season on deep ground. Pulled up in his latest start on heavy ground at Sandown, there must of been an issue that day as he hasn't been since (over 2 months ago) and was well backed that day so a big run was expected in atrocious conditions. His run behind Blueking D'Oroux at Cheltenham (October) reads well, and he has a decent run at Ascot inbetween that on good ground. He runs off 10st13lb so isn't off a featherweight by any means, but given he handles the conditions he could be a horse who will keep going when plenty are crying off, and 66/1 interests me with 7 places on offer especially as I'll forgive his last run.

Bets:

Jilaijone - 0.5pts ew @ 66/1 (William Hill 7 places)

Already advised: Altobelli - 2pts ew @ 12/1

Longshots P/L:

+13.90 (To advised stakes)