Longshots 06/01/23

A massive shame that Sandown has been abandoned tomorrow, as I was looking forward to the veterans final handicap chase where the blog selection Lord Du Mesnil had strong claims. Tomorrow will see racing from Newcastle, Wincanton and Cork - however the racing tomorrow wouldn't look out of place on a Monday afternoon. It's a massive lull for sport this weekend with the racing and football seriously underwhelming.

We go to Wincanton for one bet tomorrow and it's hardly a strong selection but with the ground set to be testing, there will be many horses who just won't go in it and I'm hoping it might spark one back to life.

2:40 Wincanton - 2m4f - Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (0-130)

There are a number of horses in this who would prefer better ground, so I'd like to take on a few and hope one can spring back into form. Huelgoat, Jacamar, Iconic Muddle and Dibble Decker are all horses who's best form come on good ground, and with the testing conditions tomorrow - I would like to knock them out of contention. That's not to say none of them can win, but they will be inconvenienced by the ground. However the race isn't the strongest so Huelgoat and Jacamar can win in spite of the ground. I think Dibble Decker is capable of winning a handicap over fences this season, and I wonder whether he will be pulled tomorrow due to the ground as he's been pulled at Exeter when it came up testing.

Georges Saint looks the most likely winner based on form, and his ability to handle heavy conditions. I expect him to win but 5/2 isn't the price we want, so I'll side with HONNEUR D'AJONC who has handled very soft ground throughout his career, and if prominent tactics are deployed tomorrow he has a chance of outrunning his odds. A decent novice hurdler who had the beating of the favourite Georges Saintover hurdles in heavy ground at Exeter, he's dropped to a workable mark of 123. He's already won off a 5lb higher mark over fences before beating Super Six, but has struggled since.

He fell at Sandown in a lucrative novice handicap at Sandown on his final outing last season, and hasn't shown anything in his first 2 outings of the season, pulling up over hurdles first time out, before a lifeless display at Exeter over fences last time, I wonder if being dropped down to compete in a small field handicap at a track he's already won at in conditions that he can handle compared to others can spark some confidence back into him.

Jane Williams, his trainer, done similar with Moka De Vassy at Taunton a week ago, and Honneur D'Ajonc rates as a similar type of profile to him too. Without a doubt he has ability, but it's about finding a race where he can travel with confidence and the sharp right handed track might just do that. With question marks around other runners, Coral, Skybet and Ladbrokes are all offering 14/1 with 3 places on offer in a 7 runner field and this looks an ideal race to find a spark for the 7 year old.

Bets:

Honneur D'Ajonc - 0.75pts ew @ 14/1 (Skybet,Lad,Coral)

Longshots Profit and Loss:

+20.1pts