Longshots 04/11/2023

A disappointing start to the Longshots blog with only a small profit on the place of Alien Storm at Cheltenham last weekend. Clarens ran no race and finished down the field, so we are -1.10pts after one week. This blog won't hammer in winners every week, but we are always hoping to nick big profits every few weeks. Looking back to Alien Storm, he will definitely win a handicap sooner rather than later but it might come up in trip and at a lower level.

Ascot looks the only meeting that will survive this Saturday with Wetherby very unlikely to be on due to a waterlogged track. The hurdle track at Ascot looks hard work, and could be bottomless by lunchtime with the forecast rain. The chase track may be slightly better but it will still be testing.

3:15 - 2m Handicap Hurdle

A decent little contest with the impressive recent Cheltenham winner Our Champ at the head of the market, whilst the Harry Fry trained Altobelli a dangerous lurker at 13/2 coming off the back of his novice hurdle season. Altobelli will no doubt win a good pot this season but his price doesn't interest me for this blog and the one who interests me at 8/1 is Knickerbockerglory, who loves heavy ground and will be running off 125 with Tristan Durrell's conditional claim. I expect him to go from the front trying to gallop these into admission and might be hard to catch if he has enough left in the locker when swinging into the home straight. He's worth chancing but the main selection at 33/1 with 4 places on offer is the mud loving CARBON KING. Down the field on his debut for Evan Williams in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, it wasn't soft enough for him that day and the bottomless ground at Ascot should suit him better. His beating of Buddy One in a handicap last season on soft ground at Limerick reads well and he improved through the season at Declan Queally. He may not have much room off a mark off 130, but given the conditions I expect him to run well and 33/1 is a fair price.

3:45 - 3m Handicap Chase

Monbeg Genius looks a shoe-in on his Ultima performance for this race and I expect him to win this on route for a prep for the Hennessy at Newbury at the end of the month. If he doesn't run his race, it looks wide open with Beauport another horse who has the potential to win a big one, whilst it has some other runners with some back class in form including Eldorado Allen and the course and distance winner Two for Gold. However a horse who looks well suited by conditions, and off a low weight, and best described the second choice of the Gary Moore stable (stable jockey is on Larry) is ZHIGULI. A horse who loves soft conditions with all 5 of his wins coming on the minimum of at least soft ground, he catches my eye at 16/1 with 4 places on offer. Bred by Flemensfirth out of an Old Vic mare, he screams 3 miles and he was his own worst enemy in his younger days where he was guilty of being keen and not relaxing which held him back in his finishing efforts. Suited by right hand courses due to his tendency to jump right, the soft going gives him genuine each way claims and I expect this gelding to win a good pot now he's relaxing over fences and getting the trip well. A low weight over rain sodden conditions is often a decent angle to follow too.

Bets:

Knickerbockerglory - 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Betfair)

Carbon King - 1.5pts ew @ 33/1 (Betfair)

Zhiguli - 1pts ew @ 16/1 (General)

Profit and Loss 23/24 season:

-1.10pts