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Writing this before the start of racing on the first day of the Dublin Racing Festival and other supporting cards, so I'm not sure how Saturday went from a betting point of view. Looking at the markets, 3 look set to run no race. Let's just see anyway, I'll take any profit.
12:40 Leopardstown - 2m2f - Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle
I think the winner will come from the top half a dozen in the betting with the front 2 in the market standing out in terms of class in Foxy Girl and Risk Belle. The problem with Foxy Girl is that she is a tricky ride and needs luck to fall her way. She will win a handicap off 125, no doubt, but she's too short at 7/2 given her profile. Risk Belle disappointed at Christmas, but is a classy mare and is worth another go.
Looking further down the field, Broomfield Bijou who won a decent handicap at the Punchestown Festival wears first time cheekpieces and is a consistent sort. 14/1 is a fair price. I originally had some word written about A Law Of Her Own, who stood out as a big price but the rain softened ground probably has gone against her. She could pop up in a handicap sometime in the spring. So I've switched my attentions to MEDIA NARANJA who needs further then the 2 miles and with the step up in trip plus the soft ground, might outrun her odds at 25/1. Rated 122, she ran well enough in a handicap at Fairyhouse in December before disappointing at Limerick over Christmas. Gordon Elliott's runners were running well below par at the time and he struck with a big priced handicap winner today - now his yard are back in decent form again. A small bet for interest each way.
Bets:
Media Naranja - 0.5pts ew @ 22/1 (Paddy Power 6 places)
3:20 Leopardstown - 2m51/2f - Irish Whiskey Handicap Chase
Ever since JAMES DU BERLAIS crossed the line at Christmas when not staying in the 3 mile Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, I said he'll win this race and I'm not going to change my mind despite his price in a 25 runner race.
The first time tongue tie he was wearing at Leopardstown in December looks to of done the trick after a disappointing novice chasing campaign last season, where his form tailed off after his season opening impressive win at Fairyhouse. There definitely seemed to be something wrong with the Muhtathir gelding as he never finished off his races and looked like he had some physical problem. The tongue tie seemed to work wonders last time where he travelled well before just blantantly not staying. He rates the bet from a win only proposition.
Bets:
James Du Berlais - 1.5pts win @ 6/1
Longshots P/L:
+11.50 (To advised stakes)
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