Longshots 03/02/24

2 days of top class racing awaits at the Dublin Racing Festival, plus 2 excellent supporting cards including 2 days at Musselburgh and the Scilly Isles meeting at Sandown tomorrow.

I've been looking forward to the DRF for weeks now; and my excitement for it has been on a Cheltenham type level of buzz. I do have to admit that I am slightly underwhelmed with the racing on offer, especially the small fields in the graded events. A sign of the times I suppose, especially with the master trainer Willie Mullins having such a strong squad of horses. Still, there will be plenty of Cheltenham clues on offer and plenty of bets for punters to get stuck into.

Only one bet tomorrow at Leopardstown, however I'll give my thoughts on all races in another blog. There are a couple at Sandown at decent prices too.

1:25 Sandown - 2m4f - Virgin Bet Novices Handicap Hurdle (0-125)

Jingko Blue will be all the rage in this novice handicap hurdle, and rightly so, with Nicky Henderson's gelding offering a good level of form this season with his last run culminating in a win over a decent horse in Masaccio. Rated 124, he's definitely better than his mark and looks a potential high class performer in the next few seasons. At 2/1, you aren't getting much juice in his price however. The same goes for the Nicholls runner Onethreefivenotout who holds a solid chance off the back of 2 solid runs in novice hurdles. Priced at 7/2, he's sure to be better than 118 given his 1 length defeat to Lump Sum in December given that horses run in a Grade 2 at Doncaster.

Looking outside the front 2, Classic Anthem has winning form at Sandown whilst Magical King will probably win a handicap but keeps getting beat when we'll backed. The one I like at 12/1, which is a decent price given her ability, is ALFIE'S PRINCESS. Rated 120, she's already shown a decent level of ability having won 2 novice hurdles on stiff tracks this season at Chepstow and Exeter. Bombed out at Haydock in December on atrocious ground, she tried to make all that day but was well beaten. Her trainer has said they will go slightly up in distance and be ridden more patiently, and I expect her to outrun her odds here on better ground. William Hill are paying 12/1 with 4 places on offer, and that suits me.

Bets:

Alfie's Princess - 1pt win ew @ 12/1 (William Hill 4 places)

3:10 Sandown - 2m7 1/2f - Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle

A lucrative 3 mile handicap hurdle, won by the unlucky Topofthegame in 2018 (remember him?) who should of gone on to compete in Gold Cups. Unfortunately injuries stopped him ever reaching those dizzy heights.

A few decent runners in here including the stunning looking Ed Keeper, who was unlucky not to win at Cheltenham last time. West Balboa looks set to get back on track after bombing out in the Long Walk Hurdle, and 143 may underrate her. Dubrovnik Harry is a decent horse but may need it softer, but I think he's still better than a mark of 124.

I'm going to chance 2 in this field at big odds, and split my stakes. First up I'll go with EQUINUS who should like the better ground here after failing to spark over the same track and trip on bottomless ground at the Tingle Creek meeting in early December. Since his win at Aintree in October over 3 miles, he's disappointed at short prices on his next 2 runs at Newbury and Sandown, however he's not been seen for nearly 2 months which isn't like the Twiston-Davies yard given they naturally like to run their horses. That suggests he may of needed to get over an injury, or needed freshening up. Either way, the break will of done him well after 3 runs in just over a month. Bet365 are 33/1 and 5 places, and he's a bet.

BARBADOS BUCK'S is probably 40/1 for a reason, and is probably rated to his hilt off 131 but I can't resist having a pop at him after he went in my tracker early season. That was in a small field handicap at Ayr where he travelled into it well before fading. He then won a 3 runner race at Carlisle before being well beaten last time out at Ayr. That was on heavy ground, which he doesn't want and the return to a big field on better ground will suit him here. This lad isn't the worst horse in the field by any means, makes a long journey from Scotland to partake and is a huge price to take a small chance on. I'll take a stab in the dark on him at 40/1 especially with Gavin Sheehan on board who will probably hold him up and come with a run - and who knows what could happen given his record this season.

Bets:

Equinus - 0.5pts ew @ 33/1 (Bet365)

Barbados Buck's - 0.5pts ew @ 40/1 (William Hill 5 places)

4:10 Leopardstown - 2m1f - Ryanair Handicap Chase (0-150)

Regular readers of the blog (there aren't any but still) will of seen The Folkes Tiara win at 10/1 for Longshots over the festive period at Leopardstown, and he runs again here over the same trip, track and ground. He will likely go close again, even despite the 6lb rise and I would definitely suggest a bet on him if you're looking for a solid win bet. I won't put him up here however, and I'll look for a bigger price I can back each way.

I've had the favourite Path D'oroux on my mind for a handicap all season, however I've never loaded up on him due to his jumping deficiencies. He still hasn't got the hang of jumping, and it would take a brave man to suggest a bet on him at 4/1. Henn See is another one who is a questionable jumper but he runs off 123, and is trained by Willie Mullins. If he gets round, he must have a huge chance and I'm half tempted to take the 9s. I'll give that a miss as I missed the 12s and instead take a chance on a horse I've followed all season, THE BIG CHAP.

Paul Flynn's gelding caught my eye in October after nabbing graded performer My Mate Mozzie on the run in at Fairyhouse. He won next time out at Galway, before pulling up at Fairyhouse when going off 13/2 in a handicap won by Solness (2nd favourite here). Last seen finishing 2nd to the aforementioned The Folkes Tiara at Leopardstown over Christmas, he got handed a 3lb rise for that run. Running off 137 here, I think he's going to put in a huge run after 5 weeks off the track and might be a 140+ performer over this trip by the end of the season. William Hill are paying 4 places @ 11/1, and I'll go with an each way bet as I'm certain he'll fill the places at minimum.

Bets:

The Big Chap - 1pt ew @ 11/1 (William Hill 4 places)

*Prices as of 21:27pm 02/02/24

Longshots P/L:

+12.1pts (To advised stakes)