Longshots 01/12/23

Unfortunately another poor weekend for the Longshots blog as Emitom was well backed from 14s into 8s but something was amiss and he was pulled up. I have one for tomorrow at Newbury with another bet trading at a shorter price at Doncaster.

3:35 Newbury - 3m Handicap Hurdle (0-145)

This looks an open handicap with plenty of claims, and the front 4 in the market look progressive. Hyland holds strong claims with 2 wins already this season, whilst Hoe Joly Smoke and Ed Keeper look 2 novices keeping onside for handicaps going forwards. Ramo and Gentleman At Arms were also both winners last time out, and Ramo's form was franked at Ascot with the 2nd (Midnightreflection) in behind winning at Ascot.

There is another horse who will no doubt improve and that's Regal Blue, however the shout goes to a horse from my tracker who caught the eye at Cheltenham in October - and that's RAMBO T. Already a winner at Newton Abbot this season, he went into my tracker finishing 3rd in a handicap at Prestbury Park behind Pinnacle Peak (ran well in a handicap at the November meeting) and the classy Angels Breath. He shaped as if the step up to 3 miles will suit, and this could bring out further improvement. His first and last try at 3 miles was at Haydock at the end of the season in the middle of May, and he was no doubt feeling the effects of a long season that started in October.

Whilst he might not have as much in hand in terms of his official rating as some of his opponents such as Ed Keeper, Hoe Joly Smoke and Regal Blue - he's had plenty of racing with the scope for a little more improvement for the step up in trip. He represents a little value at the 12/1 still around, having missed the 14/1 with Skybet paying 5 places but there we go.

Rambo T - 1.25pts ew @ 12/1

*price correct as of 21:25 - 30/11/23

11:45 Doncaster - 3m Hands and Heels Handicap Hurdle (0-120)

The current favourite Dragon Rock looks fairly solid having hosed up in a handicap chase at Fairyhouse 6 days ago, and makes the trip over the Irish Sea to try and bag this prize in an amateur riders 'hands and heels' race. The trainers (Shark Hanlon) son is on board and it looks the ideal opportunity to get his son in the winners enclosure after success at Worcester in the summer. The trip from Ireland to the UK, and the short turnaround since his win at Fairyhouse gives some ammunition to punters to take on the favourite despite the runner having a favourites chance.

I'll be one of those punters taking him on, with the Nicky Henderson trained THE BOMBER LISTON. I actually had a stable tour around Nicky's yard back in 2021 and this Yeats gelding was a well regarded hope for a bumper. He hasn't really reached the heights expected of him over his hurdles career, and he unfortunately failed a chaser in a summer campaign this year. He actually has ran a number of decent races over hurdles without winning including at Punchestown and Kempton, and ran creditably last time out in a handicap at Ludlow a few weeks ago.

The ground will suit at Doncaster, as will the flat track, and his rider Lily Jones will take 5lb off - effectively running off a mark of 110. With all claims taken into account, the favourite will have to concede 6lb to Henderson's runner and that could be the difference as I do think it's coming round to The Bomber Liston's chance to finally win a handicap over hurdles.

The Bomber Liston - 1pt win @ 7/2 (Betfair)

*price correct as of 21:25 - 30/11/23