Long range Cheltenham Festival Antepost Tips 23/24

And just like that...the new National Hunt 23/24 season is upon us. Just under a month until the jumps season kicks off, in the UK anyway, at Chepstow Racecourse on October 13th. From there on, there will be plenty of punters nailing their antepost bets down for March, and the eagerly awaited Cheltenham Festival. I'm sure plenty of you reading this (if there is anyone that is) will be screaming at your phone telling me to enjoy the season and forget the festival for the time being, and I will be doing just that, however I always enjoy trying to hit a antepost winner for March in the summer, so lets get on with it.

Ryanair Chase

When you have a look at the Ryanair Chase, it looks there for the taking for a young horse coming into their 2nd season over fences with plenty of improvement to come. The horse I'd be most interested in currently would be JONBON, but with his devastating Celebration Chase display at Sandown towards the latter end of the season, connections may be tempted to have a go at the 2 mile Champion Chase. He needs to find a number of lengths on El Fabiolo however, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Jonbon beaten by said horse in the Tingle Creek with Willie Mullins splitting up the Arkle winner and his current Champion Chase winner Energumene. His running style and profile would suit the Ryanair, as his running style over 2 miles lacks a gear at the end stage of the race and he looks like a horse who would enjoy a step up in trip against pacey individuals like El Fabiolo. Another worry would be his Cheltenham record, as he has finished tamely up the hill in both his runs at the Festival. He is also a free sweater and a nervous horse, and I'm not convinced the Festival plays to his strengths with the huge crowds, however a tentative 6/1 win bet at this stage appeals.

Looking a little further down the list, you have horses such as the reigning champion Envoi Allen, and previous twin winner of the contest Allaho lurking at skimpy odds of 8/1 and 10/1 respectively. Both horses have had their fair share of problems with Allaho missing all of last season through niggles. Both horses have the ability to win this, however they both turn 10 years old at the turn of the year and the engimatic Envoi Allen has a history of throwing in inconsistent performances which don't appeal at this stage of the season. If Allaho can show he still retains his ability with a couple of solid runs in upcoming season, he could be a contender but is best ignored for now.

2 second season chasers to keep on side would be Banbridge and Stage Star. Stage Star won the Turners at Cheltenham in March in an underwhelming race where he got lucky from the front, but is a clean jumper who his trainer will prep all year for the Ryanair. He has the ability to be in the finish but might not have the class of Jonbon for instance. However Banbridge is worth keeping on side as an each way bet at 16/1. The worry with this Doyen gelding is that he desperately wants good ground and was a shade unlucky to get the rain on the Thursday of the Turners last year. He made up for that with a great performance at Aintree, and makes the logical each way bet at this stage given it will be the main target for a middle distance graded horse like himself. If the ground comes right, then this chap has a great chance on the day and appeals at 16/1 as an each way alternative to Jonbon. However I will pass on him for a real big price that I think is lurking.

A small shoutout goes to SIR GERHARD at a huge 50/1. It's worth keeping in mind that the Jeremy gelding was on the backfoot from the start last season where he didn't come to hand until January - with his first start in a 3 runner beginners at Gowran Park in late January - and it's never ideal for any horse to start their campaign in January and then go on to have a number of races in quick succession. If he can start his season fit and firing from the start of the season and gain a number of crucial confident performances over fences before the turn of the year, expect him to be a player in March. He has the choice of reverting back to hurdles, but I hope that if he is able to start the season pre-Christmas, he develops the confidence in small field graded chases and could look a different horse come March.

1pt win - JONBON @ 6/1

1pt each way - SIR GERHARD @ 50/1

Stayers Hurdle

TEAHUPOO was my long term fancy for the Stayers Hurdle after he beat the legendary Honeysuckle in a shock win in the Hattons Grace last year. Ultimately he just lacked the required stamina to win the race, and it possibly wasn't Davy Russell's finest moment in the saddle. I'm taking the positive view with that race and believe Teahupoo will come on stronger from his unlucky exploits last season. He was a shade unlucky in the finish last year as Dashel Drasher stopped his momentum in the final furlong and he picked up again to finish strongly up that hill. It is also worth noting that Davy Russell feels he lacked the power at the end of the race due to a nasty fall in a previous race, and that would of not helped the Masked Marvel gelding = although Sire Du Berlais clearly was the most powerful stayer on the day.

It was Teahupoo's first proper race over 3 miles after winning an egg and spoon race easily at Gowran in the Galmoy Hurdle back in January, and with another summer on his back, he looks best placed to have another crack at the Stayers. I think the Stayers Hurdle can be an attritional race normally with strong stayers such as Sire Du Berlais, Lisnager Oscar and Paisley Park winning it recently, and if you get a proper test of stamina then Teahupoo being another year older and wiser will have the required stamina to be at the end of the race once again. Gaelic Warrior looks an adequate favourite however we are yet to see him in open company and with his jumping (goes badly right) being a huge worry, whilst Maries Rock could have an outside chance at 16/1. Whilst there doesn't looks an obvious contender outside of these 3, the hugely talented Irish Point could be an outside lurker if stepped up to this distance. The chance has to go to Teahupoo at a big 12/1 to right the wrongs from last year and he appeals as a solid each way bet currently.

2pts each way TEAHUPOO @ 12/1

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

It takes a lot of bollocks to put a horse up with the Albert Bartlett in September, however I always like having a swing at a big price and there's a horse who fits the profile for the Albert Bartlett at a big price already. Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown have usually had a horse who they target at this race with Death Duty, No More Heroes and Commander of Fleet sticking out in my mind as 3, and they might have another one with the Shantou bred STELLAR STORY looking like a candidate for this race already. He turns 7 at the turn of this year, and that he won't start his novice hurdle campaign until 6 years old appeals to me for this race. By 7 years old, normally horses who are bred for this trip, and he is (Shantou v Bob Back), will have the required stamina by that age to go to war with. A horse with already a good standard of form, having won 2 bumpers over the minimum trip, he has already beat Ile Atlantique owned by the shrewd Tony Bloom, and trained by the master Willie Mullins. Whilst he may not have the quality of the aforementioned gelding, he nabbed him the 2nd place well staying on that day to gobble up Ile Atlantique late on. He also beat Caldwell Potter back in 3rd that day, another novice hurdle to keep an eye on.

Described as a lazy type by Harry Swan who won both bumpers on him, and who mentioned that he'll want 'much further' then 2 miles, he is a horse I've had my eye on for this race, and I'll take a small chance at the 33/1 on offer already. He fits the profile, with having the quality to win a bumper over 2 miles and with the form looking fair on paper, whilst his age and breeding sticks out to me too. You aren't going to get rich backing a horse for the Albert Bartlett in September, but this is a small throw of a few pennies to keep the interest going through the season following this Gigginstown owned beast who love nothing more then a 3 mile 'chaser in making'.

1pt each way STELLAR STORY @ 33/1

Arkle Novices Chase

I was all over the Supreme winner in waiting FACILE VEGA for the aforementioned race last season at fair prices and before the Dublin Racing Festival back in February I was already counting my cash on him. It wasn't to be with Facile Vega clearly not giving his runneing at the DRF, suffering an overreach in the middle of the race and emptying out, before finishing 2nd to Marine Nationale in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Plenty won't agree with this, however I believe the fact that Facile Vega missed a number of days in the build up to the Festival meant he wasn't primed to his best when running in the Tuesday opener. He was however beaten fair and square by the Barry Connell trained Marine Nationale that day, despite a bad jump at the last not helping his cause.

My definite view is that Facile Vega will devour his fences and win the Arkle in March, and it's worth taking the 5/1 on offer already. Whilst I believe Marine Nationale is a hugely talented horse, with a tremendous amount of speed, the French Navy bred (flat bred) horse got his way in the Supreme with Facile Vega's preparation and I fully expect Facile Vega to dominate him over fences when they meet in in the new campaign. Facile Vega, given his size and breeding, strikes me as a horse who will respect his fences (wasn't always a perfect hurdler) and devour them with his relentless stride and power. I expect Willie to already have the Arkle in his mind, and with Impaire Et Passe staying over hurdles, he looks the Closutton number one for this race already. A likely straight shootout come March in the Arkle between the Supreme 1 and 2, my ball is already in Facile Vega's camp and the 5/1 looks tasty for me to give a definite answer on the question already in September.

2pts win FACILE VEGA @ 5/1