In Depth: National Hunt Chase

Here we are...the last part of the series having an in-depth look at the 4 novice chases at the Cheltenham Festival. The weakest race of the 4 usually, and I must admit at times it's not been a great watch with complete carnage in a few editions of this race. It's a historic race which gives amateur riders a chance to shine on the big stage, but I must admit at times it's not pleasant to watch as a fan of the sport. Still, I wouldn't want to get rid of the race so let's try and find some solid candidates to concentrate on!

The National Hunt chase is the weakest in terms of quality in the 4 novice chasers, and at this stage it looks a bit of a puzzle to figure out 2 things - who will be aimed at this race, and another important question, who will stay the trip?

First up is the horse pictured above, THE BOSSES OSCAR. Trained by Gordon Elliott, the Oscar bred gelding was all the rage in the antepost markets for the Pertemps Final at the Festival in March, before finishing 2nd behind Mrs Milner. Gordon Elliott mentioned recently in his stable tour on At The Races that he could be a possible contender for this race and I'd have to say he would have the right profile, although he may have the option of the Ultima Handicap Chase on the Tuesday too. A horse with a decent amount of ability, he has already started his campaign at Listowel in September, finishing 2nd in a novice chase behind Busselton. The fact that he is starting his campaign so early suggests that Elliott wants to get as much experience in to him before his Spring targets (probably this race then the Irish Grand National after). Elliott is a creature of habit and often finds either second season novice chasers such as Galvin, Ravenhill and Tiger Roll who have gained hardened experience throughout the summer/autumn before a tilt at this, or he looks for horses with decent ability giving them 5 or 6 runs over fences before the Festival. The Bosses Oscar fits the profile of the latter and has a solid chance if improving through the year with his jumping. 16/1 is fair given it's mentioned as a target already by his shrewd trainer.

A horse who is trained by the same man, and fits into the first category of being a second season chaser with plenty of experience is the Irish Grand National '21 2nd, RUN WILD FRED. Antepost favourite for this race throughout the summer, he has a touch of seconditis about him - finishing 2nd in his last 3 starts. A horse who was all the rage for the Kim Muir last season in the antepost markets, he possesses a fair amount of ability and improved with racing last season, finishing the season with the already mentioned 2nd in the Irish Grand National and a 2nd behind Coko Beach in the lucrative Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park. Not mentioned in the stable tour on ATR, it's a horse worth keeping in mind as second season novices have a solid record in this race. If either of the horses mentioned above do have this race as their target, they will likely have Jamie Codd on board - which is obviously a huge positive.

Willie Mullins always likes to throw one at this race as he always wants to give his son Patrick a winner at the Festival, and Patrick's chances of winning in this race is much greater than the graded runners he rides across the 4 days due to his riding ability against fellow amateurs and the lack of real competition. STATTLER looks an obvious horse to concentrate on, running fairly consistently in graded novice hurdles last season. I think he'll be overbet in the market due to connections, and although it was noted by pundits last season that he needs further then 3 miles, I didn't see anything hugely to suggest he is crying out for an extreme trip. If you watch his finishing efforts at Cheltenham and Punchestown, he didn't hit the line overly strong and I'd question whether he wants extreme distances myself. Perhaps he will of strengthened further through the summer, and I'd like to see him hit the line stronger in his races in the early part of this season before making an opinion on him. ONTHEROPES threw his hat into the ring for this race, and the Hennessy Gold Cup by winning the Munster National at Limerick a few days ago. Still a novice coming into the race after some time out, it was a very good performance for such an inexperienced horse up against hardened handicappers and Willie might see a decent opportunity here. The Presenting gelding won't be seen at his best on heavy ground, but he may be seen at Leopardstown this season where the ground isn't bottomless gaining more experience through the season before a tilt at this.

I expect VANILLIER to be aimed at the RSA even if he might need this trip, with the same said for GENTLEMANSGAME too. Gordon Elliott has 2 more to throw into the mix with FAKIERA, a big boat of a horse who looks like he needs this extreme trip, and FURY ROAD who disappointed last season in his 2nd season over hurdles. Both are on the shortlist but you'd need to forgive their poor runs last season in the Spring onwards. DICKIE DIVER could be the long term JP McManus horse for this too, however he is so fragile it's a plot worth watching right now.

One that might be aimed at this race, but will be given the option of the Kim Muir is the John McConnell trained STREETS OF DOYEN. A dour stayer who needs staying trips on decent ground, he could be a fair price at 40/1 currently if you were looking to play something at small stakes. A horse who improved considerably through the season in handicap hurdles going from a mark of 111 to a high of 141 at one point. He actually beat the Stayers Hurdle winner The Flooring Porter by 5 lengths in a 3 mile handicap at Gowran Park in October 2020. Not a race to take literally as the Flooring Porter looked a tricky ride, and gave a stone to the winner, but it's still form worth taking into account. Streets of Doyen already has crucial Festival experience to throw into the mix too, which a staying on 3rd in the Albert Bartlett last season, and he looks the exact type who would relish the 3m6f on Spring ground in March. It's hoped his trainer can get a couple more runs over fences before the winter ground kicks in, and he is entered in a 3 mile novice chase at Cheltenham this weekend for the Showcase Meeting. Disappointed in his last outing coming over the Irish sea in a trip to Worcester in August, I'm assuming there were problems after that run as he hasn't been seen for a couple of months since (well beaten 3rd). He could take in the Kim Muir (likely rated under 145 to get in) or the National Hunt Chase, and may be worth a few shillings for interest at 40/1.

Summary

As always a tricky race to predict at such an early stage but THE BOSSES OSCAR makes the most appeal for me. A 16/1 poke with Bet365 looks fair, and I expect his trainer to select this target for him in March. The Moran's (owners) are in the sport for Cheltenham winners, and we all know Gordon Elliott is a shrewd forward thinking trainer who selects early targets and has a proven track record in getting horses placed well throughout the season coming ripe for their chosen long term target in the Spring. It's expected he'll be seen in plenty of novice chases including those Grade 2/3 small field novice chases at Naas, Navan etc - on his way to the National Hunt Chase with Jamie Codd on board.

Other mentions go to RUN WILD FRED and ONTHEROPES, whilst STATTLER may be a horse earmarked by the Mullins camp as a horse who will target the race for the father/son partnership. Whilst DICKIE DIVER could be the McManus/O'Connor plot if staying in one piece throughout the season.

As mentioned, the other horse that may be worth following at a big price is the battle hardened STREETS OF DOYEN who is likely to compete in a 3 mile novice at Cheltenham this weekend (23/10/21) and that's often a pointer to a horse who will target either the Kim Muir or the National Hunt Chase, and he could give punters a fun bet through the season.