In Depth: Marsh Novices Chase

After an in-depth look at the Arkle Novices Chase, the preview came out with no surprises as the lack of depth looks very worrying for fans of the sport as we all want racing to be much more competitive than it is currently. For punters, the lack of depth is a lovely proposition as the lack of options mean anyone who fancies Appreciate It at this early stage can get a fair price at 3/1 without many dangers. Bear in mind that it's only October however, and there could be a few lurkers in the pack. Anyway, let's move on to the Marsh Novices Chase and see if we can spot any value currently....

Let's get on with this and we'll start with the most obvious candidate BOB OLINGER, the impressive winner of the Ballymore Novices Hurdle. In a recent stable tour, his trainer Henry De Bromhead noted that he will likely stick at middle distances for the moment and will likely start in the middle of November in his novice chasing campaign. A horse who clearly has a huge amount of ability, and it's not often his trainer touts a horse as highly as De Bromhead touts Bob OLinger that's for sure. He has the speed, stamina and brain to be one of the finest talents in the last 10 years. I'd say he looks the most obvious winner of the race, however it's worth watching his jumping technique as he no doubt has the cruising speed to lay up with horses over 2 miles. It's also worth noting that his trainer has the ability to get horses to jump at the speed required for the minimum trip and the Arkle isn't off bounds for now. Priced at 4/1, this is one of the more generous prices if you're looking for an antepost bet on a horse who is at the top of the market in his chosen race.

Moving on, the other 2 have already been mentioned in the Arkle preview in the Willie Mullins contenders APPRECIATE IT and FERNY HOLLOW. I have a feeling that Ferny Hollow may be kept over hurdles in a late switch, but would be of huge interest in this race especially based on his beating of Bob OLinger over hurdles, whilst Appreciate It I expect to be a horse who will be comfortable over the minimum trip jumping soundly and using his high cruising speed over 2 miles. Probably won't go to plan as I say, but this is my theory currently. As always you have to stick your neck on the line in your betting, and this is no different. If Ferny Hollow does go over fences, then assuming he retains all his ability, he will be a force to fear for antepost punters who are sweet on the chances of Bob OLinger and Appreciate It.

MY DROGO will be a force to be reckoned with wherever he goes, and the 8/1 is a fair price for a horse who looked well above average at the end of last season. As mentioned in the Arkle preview, My Drogo is a horse who is bred for 3 miles, however he's not short of pace without a doubt and I expect him to take in the Marsh this season. With that said, connections may prefer to swerve Bob OLinger if he looks an absolute machine and he could go the RSA. Questions will need to be answered and I'd play a waiting game for the Milan gelding.

Other contenders could be the exciting BEAR GHLLYS who ran a cracker in the Ballymore, however I would err on the side of caution with him as he was a scrappy jumper over hurdles and will be a work in progress for me. Willie Mullins has a number of other interesting horses who might bridge the gap over fences to Bob OLinger including the exciting GAILLARD DU MESNIL. The Saint Des Saints gelding is still a little buzzy and I don't think he is a dour stayer who wants the RSA trip and could be priced fairly at the 16/1. Willie also has JAMES DU BERLAIS who looks set to go over fences and be a totally different preposition to the end of season form he shown over hurdles. I'd like to see him have a good start to the season before getting involved. Another one for Willie would be BLUE LORD who was running a cracker in the Supreme before coming down and might be a fair animal for chasing this year and fences might be the making of him, whilst the impressive Martin Pipe winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is likely to be a 3 miler but has the touch of class to compete against top class animals.

One that will definitely bridge the gap over fences and reduce those 10+ lengths from the Ballymore is BRAVEMANSGAME. I thought it was an exceptional performance first time over fences at Newton Abbot, despite the weight he received. It's not often you see a novice chaser on his first outing in a proper race over fences jump as straight and clean as he did. His trainer Paul Nicholls mentioned at Newton Abbot that he's not sure the horse wants to go 3 miles this season, and he may just stick at intermediate trips. The likelihood is that he won't turn around the 10+ lengths in his favour but he may bridge the gap and be a fair each way bet for this race. Personally I am fairly confident that Bob OLinger will stay at the middle distance trip that makes him worth betting at the 4/1, however I think the Marsh will have a little more depth to it than the Arkle.

Summary

It's hard to envisage BOB OLINGER not taking to fences, and assuming he can jump cleanly - he looks the one that will be the punters choice for the season. Similar to the Arkle, FERNY HOLLOW looks the potential fly in the ointment, if he goes over fences. That question is still yet to be answered as Willie will no doubt make a late decision.

Although BRAVEMANSGAME is priced as a horse who looks set to be a 3 miler this season and punters/bookmakers seem to think the RSA will be his destination of choice, however the noises from Paul Nicholls in the last couple of weeks suggest he doesn't view him as a 3 miler and he could once again face Bob OLinger. If pushed he would be my selection to bridge the gap and give Bob OLinger a race at 12/1, as I was really taken with his debut over fences at Newton Abbot.

My Drogo will be an outstanding horse but I remain fluid on his plans, whilst Gaillard Du Mesnil will be a decent horse to follow this season and may go up in trip to the RSA, but I wonder if the Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse might suit him better as a long term plan.

With my neck on the line, it's a shootout between Bob OLinger and Bravemansgame, a contest that will be eagerly awaited come March once again.