In Depth: Festival Novices Chase (Formerly the RSA)

Welcome to Part 3. The next instalment of our 4 part series looking at the novice chases at the Cheltenham Festival in March. We've taken a look at the Arkle and the Marsh, with 2 outstanding candidates already at the top of the market in each. However when I take a good look at the RSA (will always be the RSA to me!) there is a good amount of depth to it despite having a couple of solid candidates at the top of the market already.

As mentioned in previous blogs the Willie Mullins bingo will be rampant this season. Not just in the novice chase sphere but certainly in the novice hurdle division as well. His depth of novice hurdlers this season is absolutely frightening, and I don't want to be picking which one goes where at this stage of the season. Currently the favourite for the RSA is the impressive Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. A winner in France over hurdles back in May 2020, he was highly rated by connections going into the season but suffered a stop-start campaign in the first half of the season, pulling up with a heart issue at Limerick at Christmas. Next time out he was seen finishing an eye catching 6th in the 2 mile novice hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind Appreciate It, before sluicing up in the Martin Pipe off 142 in March. Last seen at Punchestown delivering another superb victory winning the Grade 1 3 mile novice hurdle by 12 lengths. Willie Mullins has mentioned a crack at the Stayers Hurdle, but given he likes to get embryonic chasers over fences straight after their novice hurdle campaign - it's expected the Timos gelding will go chasing this season. A horse who could be anything, he is priced at 8/1 but with a little more depth to the RSA compared to the other Grade 1 novice chases, I'll let that price go.

The horse who I am really interested in for this race is MY DROGO, however I know connections will keep their options open through the year given that he can compete over 2 miles based on his novice hurdle form. He is bred to be a Gold Cup horse and that's the way I think his career will go but priced at 10/1 I'm keeping an open mind as already mentioned in recent blogs. Once I see how he jumps and travels in his first couple of outings then I can make a proper assessment. He is the one in the pack (within the RSA contenders) who I believe will be absolutely top class, although it's hardly a revelation given he'll be on plenty of other judges minds this season.

Having already spoken about BRAVEMANSGAME in the Marsh instalment, the vibes coming from Nicholls that he doesn't see him as a dour 3 mile chaser in the mould of Denman, so I'll have to ignore him for now. I still think he will be a Gold Cup horse as he stuck on well at Aintree when he was clearly over the top. Keep an open mind, as always in this game.

Next up is the Albert Bartlett winner VANILLIER. Trained by a genius in Gavin Cromwell, who I hope is given more horses to work with by top owners, he is a dour stayer who was likely over the top by Punchestown (as a few were I think) when being defeated by Galopin Des Champs. However I'm not keen on the strength of the form in the Albert Bartlett, and view it as the weakest novice hurdle at Cheltenham last March in terms of form and depth. As always, a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Cheltenham will deliver a good level of form, but I think most (or all) will be good level handicappers going forwards rather than top class Grade 1 winners in open company. Despite being trained by Cromwell and being a Grade 1 winner, I'm not sure he possesses true Grade 1 ability and I'll pass on the quotes of 16/1 for him.

MINELLA DRAMA is another fair horse, and a horse who can be part of a number of horses who will propel Donald McCain back into the limelight after a quiet few years - It's good to see him getting back on his feet again with some proper horses in the past year or so. Minella Drama is certainly bred for the RSA trip, whilst GAILLARD DU MESNIL is a fair price at 25/1 but I expect him to want to compete in the middle distance races this season rather then proper staying trips. The same can be said for BEAR GHYLLS, who will likely be a top class performer based on his Ballymore run, however looking at his breeding he will likely be a horse who wants 2m4-2m6. I have a serious opinion that Arcadio progeny (his sire) lack that extra gauge of stamina for 3 miles and are horses with a high cruising speed but don't stay the distance beyond the intermediate trips. He might be an exception given his dam is bred out of Oscar but I would more be more hopeful than certain. Breeding isn't everything, but It's something I like to keep in mind in the National Hunt game.

The 2 that could be horses to follow at decent prices however are GENTLEMANSGAME and AHOY SENOR. Both have been put up as long term bets to get involved with for the Cheltenham Festival in 2 separate blogs. The former Gentlemansgame is expected to take high rank in his novice chasing campaign this season. A relatively inexperienced horse who only started his season under rules in January 2021, he is a big strapping son of Gentlewave who will be tenderly handled again by his trainer in the early season before a tilt at the big Spring festivals including the Cheltenham Festival. Robcour, his owners, have spent a huge amount of money on new stock and they will of been in the game for Cheltenham Festival winners - so be sure he will be there in March assuming all goes well. I have big hopes for the grey gelding, who was able to compete in graded hurdles without experience in bumpers and only 1 run in a novice hurdle. Priced at 25/1, it's a temping price to get involved with at this early stage.

Another inexperienced horse mentioned is the latter, Ahoy Senor, who was mentioned at a huge 40/1 by Ruby_Tuesday59 in his bets to follow for the Cheltenham Festival on this site. With Pricewise tipping it up at the same price in the Racing Post supplement today, the price has crashed to 25/1 generally. Expected to take in a novice chase in the Northern circuit in October, he will likely be seen at Haydock in the winter on soft ground. A horse who is no doubt talented, he was first seen under rules in a bumper at Ayr in January '21 finishing 2nd after racing keenly throughout. Upped in distance in March in a novice hurdle over 2m4 at Ayr, he comfortably saw off his rivals before having a crack at the Grade 1 Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree in April. Starting at 66/1, he beat the aforementioned Bravemansgame by 7 lengths. Despite many horses seemingly looking over the top, it was a high level performance nonetheless, making all under a fine ride by Derek Fox. A former P2P winner, he will have no trouble over fences this season and looks a horse to follow for his shrewd trainer Lucinda Russell.

Other horses who will likely to be aimed at the RSA or the National Hunt Chase (more on that later) are horses who performed in graded level over hurdles including OSCAR ELITE, BARBADOS BUCKS, THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE and impressive Chepstow winner DOES HE KNOW. All 4 will be competing in the staying novice chases in the UK this season, but all 4 are unlikely to be nothing but solid handicappers in the future.

2 more lurkers in the pack however are the lightly raced geldings MR INCREDIBLE and GALLYHILL. Both are ex point-to-pointers from Ireland, and I expect both to be surprise packages over fences this season. Both are well regarded by their connections and will improve with racing through the season too.

Summary

With the RSA looking like it has a little bit more depth to the race than the Arkle or Marsh novice chases, there are a talented bunch of horses around who can make their name at staying trips this season. Galopin Des Champs will have his fans and being trained by Willie Mullins is obviously a huge positive for any horse plus being a horse who 'could be anything', whilst MY DROGO would be my choice as the winner at this early stage of the season. However I expect his connections to keep their options open given he's a horse who can compete well over 2 miles based on his exertions last season. Expect Dan Skelton to go round in circles in interviews throughout the year, giving nothing away.

Those 2 look cherry ripe for stardom, however I will plump for the Mouse Morris trained GENTLEMANSGAME as a potential Gold Cup horse going forwards. A horse who needs the 3 miles, but given his inexperience and age, I'd expect connections to not even contemplate the gruelling National Hunt Chase under amateur jockeys as an option. With all this to bear in mind, his only option looks the RSA and 25/1 as an each way bet appeals.

A strong mention has to go to Ahoy Senor, whilst I think 2 potential high class lurkers for this race and given their age and experience similar to Gentlemansgame, MR INCREDIBLE and GALLYHILL look like candidates who will have the option of the RSA or nothing, possibly looking for easier assignments elsewhere in the Spring.