In Depth: Arkle Chase

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The Arkle is always a special race to start with for the novice chasers at the Festival in March. The roll of honour is unbelievable with Altior and Sprinter Sacre, 2 of our most favourite horses, winning in recent times. The 2020 version will go down in history as one that sticks in the memory of many fans of the sport for 2 reasons. One with the Arkle being run to an almost empty racecourse along with the other 27 races, and secondly, the winner Shishkin looks the new superstar on the block who could clean up the Tingle Creek, Clarence House and the Queen Mother Champion Chase if all goes well.

Looking at the market, I'm not sure if there's a horse who will go on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase the following year, as was or is expected of Altior, Sprinter Sacre and now Shishkin, but there are a handful of horses who will go on to big things in the coming years in other races no doubt.

Lets start with the exceptional Supreme Novices Hurdle winner APPRECIATE IT. The Jeremy bred gelding was a 22 length winner of the opener in March, and looks the most likely winner at this early stage of the Arkle. Going into the season last year Appreciate It was the early favourite for the Albert Bartlett over 3 miles and was thought as more needing the Ballymore trip at the least in his novice campaign. Mainly due to the fact that Ferny Hollow had too many gears for him in the Champion Bumper and punters put 2 and 2 together and came out with the idea that he will be a staying novice for the 20/21 campaign. Ferny Hollow sadly suffered a season ending injury and Willie elected to campaign Appreciate It as his Supreme horse. A horse with a high cruising speed and the ability to crank up the pace and get his opponents going within the middle part of the race, he looks to possess the tools to be a high class 2 miler over fences. He looks the right favourite at 3/1 right now and that isn't the worst price in the world especially if you were looking for something to add into a multiple.

Moving onto a horse already mentioned, FERNY HOLLOW, who has been mentioned by his trainer that he could be set to go over fences this season. A horse who must easily be a 160+ horse based on his beating of Bob O'Linger, the Westerner bred gelding had shown he had the blistering speed and gears in his bumper days. Looking at him visually in his starts under rules, he doesn't strike me as the type that wants further than 2 miles however it's worth noting that the vibes from the camp based on his breeding suggest that he may look at going a little further. One to watch when he makes his eagerly awaited reappearance in his chosen sphere.

The other 2 top class horses that are included in the market towards the top of the betting are BOB O'LINGER and MY DROGO. Starting with Bob O'Linger, he would be one to keep an eye on for the Arkle market right now. The most impressive horse I saw at Cheltenham in March winning the Ballymore Novice Hurdle, he is likely to be campaigned with the Marsh in mind, however he has the right blend of speed and stamina to be a solid Arkle proposition, and as long as he jumps well at pace, connections may decide to keep their options open if the Arkle looks weaker than the Marsh. He will be hard to beat wherever he goes this season and is a mouthwatering high class talent. The latter My Drogo looks the horse who will need the 2 and a half miles as a minimum, however he is unexposed over hurdles over 2 miles. A strong stayer, his breeding (Milan x Midnight Legend) suggests he wants a trip and his Aintree win over 2m4 was his most electric performance of the season. Likely to be aimed at the Marsh, he is another one to watch in his jumping technique to see how he will handle minimum trips. Both horses are down on the shortlist for the Arkle but expected to go to the Marsh, when all is said and done.

Looking further down the betting list, it's a head scratcher to say the least. JCB Triumph Hurdle winner Quilixios is being kept over hurdles this season, with the same for last seasons top juvenile hurdler Monmiral too. A lurker was Ballyadam for Henry De Bromhead - a horse who could of been the stables Arkle hope along with Bob O'Linger being the Marsh horse - however Ballyadam had a crushing fall at Punchestown today and with his tendency to take make silly errors in his hurdle days, he looks a work in progress right now.

Nicky Henderon's Dusart is bred by Flemensfirth who may want a trip and soft ground generally, whilst his Aintree comeback run after many months off suggested he wanted that too, however it's worth keeping an open mind as he may of needed the run rather than extra distance and given he's only had 2 races in his life - I wouldn't write him off as a horse who may want to be placed at the minimum for a little longer. His stablemate Mister Coffey was talked about as a possible Arkle contender by various pundits for this season, however he lacks true Grade 1 ability based on his hurdle runs but the experience over hurdles won't of been lost on him going forwards.

Willie Mullins always seems to get horses who can perform over 2 miles and Saint Roi and Blue Lord could be potential lurkers in the pack at 33/1+, whilst the highly rated James Du Berlais could be one to watch. The likelihood is he will need further based on his efforts at the end of the season.

Summary

An in-depth review hasn't produced any surprises. APPRECIATE IT looks the likely winner at this stage and will be campaigned as an Arkle horse given his high cruising speed. He will get further, no doubt, based on his running style and being bred by Jeremy x Saint Des Saints mare, however with the Jeremy progeny in the main not dour stayers for extreme trips, he could be the type who will be comfortable at the minimum to middle distance which backs up his Arkle claims.

FERNY HOLLOW is the potential fly in the ointment for Appreciate It given he had his beating over bumpers, although it's not certain he will undertake a chasing campaign. The stable will no doubt keep their options open until the last minute and I do wonder if Willie will have a crack at the Champion Hurdle given his lack of experience over flights.

BOB O'LINGER will take high rank in whatever distance he goes for this season and is worth taking a chance at the 10/1 on offer if you believe he could go over 2 miles (has the speed and stamina no doubt), but there's likely to be no commitment by connections for a long time.

With all this in mind, Appreciate It looks the ideal type for the Arkle with his speed, stamina and the ability to maintain a monstrous gallop, and will be likely campaigned by Willie similar to his other Arkle horses such as Un De Sceaux and Douvan. The Arkle does suit an out and out galloper if there isn't a class apart horse in there (such as Altior, Douvan, Shishkin) and horses such as Duc Des Genievres, Put The Kettle On and Footpad have all taken this race as horses who can do the basics such as gallop and jump well.

Appreciate It can take this however it's worth keeping an eye out for a horse who comes from left field - possibly unraced in Britain. No surprises in the review with plenty of questions to be answered and the race with the most depth looks to be the RSA...... more on that later.