Ebor Festival - Day 4 Thoughts

The last day of the Ebor Festival, and it looks a decent day to sit on the sofa all afternoon watching York and all the football on offer on the television. A wee warning for punters however with a fair bit of rain forecast from the morning onwards at York, which could provide a puzzle for many in the fact that you aren't sure what the ground will be like mid afternoon and what horses will be able to deal with the change in conditions. We are in profit so far with the daily blog, although we have only managed to hit the crossbar with a few places. Hopefully the next 2 days provides a winner although the prices we tend to put up don't always deliver a high strike rate.

York 2:25 - 1m6f (1m5f188y) Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

A tricky 3 year olds only handicap to start the day for us. You have to decide what horses will appreciate the step up in distance to 1m6. There is plenty of 1m4 form on offer, but you can't always be sure that all the horses will appreciate this, especially if the ground opens up in the afternoon due to the rain. The Aidan O'Brien horse looks solid enough at the top of the handicap, a full brother to Derby winner Serpentine, he will stay the trip and handle any rain based on breeding and looks a solid enough each way bet for punters. I will avoid him at the price he's up at and go with a couple of tentative each way selections, although I do expect King Of The Castle to go very close.

First up is the Ed Walker trained Parachute, who comes off the back of a disappointing run at Newmarket. Went off a short price favourite that day, he was well beaten and I'm always happy to forgive a horse one poor run. It was a head scratcher after such a good run at Royal Ascot where he perhaps was in front too early that day and got swallowed up finishing 3rd. That King George V form has a little substance to it with some winners coming out from further down the pack. I'm positive about him staying on breeding, without being confident, and 14/1 with 6 places on offer looks fair. His form does suggest he has a few pounds in hand from the handicapper too.

The other one at a fancy price is Golden Flame. Mark Johnston's runners have been a little disappointing given it's a 'home tournament' for him with only 1 winner, however his horses have still been hitting the line strong enough so it's not a huge worry. Golden Flame doesn't have a great deal to offer off 91 based on his runs this season, however with a little rain around and when the going gets tough he could be the one who's going to guarantee to come home strong, and if you can get 25/1 or bigger I'd hope he can be a typical Johnston tough stayer who can finish strong.

Selections:

Parachute -1.5pts e/w @ 14/1 or bigger (William Hill - paying 6 places)

Golden Flame - 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 or bigger (Wait until the morning for extra places)

York 3:35 - 1m6f (1m5f188y) Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

When I look at the Ebor, you could make a case for plenty of runners. The forecast suggests that around 5mm of rain will be coming down from lunchtime onwards which may change the ground but perhaps not enough to make any extravagant changes to the ground. Perhaps we could be looking at good to soft by race time. With that in mind, I want to avoid any genuine fast ground horses. Originally I had fancied Saldier to run a big price and had backed him a couple of weeks ago at 14/1. Unfortunately after Willie had said he's going to run earlier in the week, he pulled him out for some reason and his only entry is Mt Leinster who hasn't been seen since last October. I'm not overly keen on his chances but the magical Mullins runs - you have to respect.

My 2 against the tricky field are Global Storm and Away He Goes. Both have shown they are capable of handling different varieties of ground and have some classy back form to go with it. For a horse of 5 years old, Away He Goes isn't as exposed as some of the other runners in this field and was last seen finishing 2nd to Trueshan on sticky soft ground at Goodwood in a group 1. He's actually 2lb well in in the Ebor (Won't really make much of a difference) and will stay the trip comfortably. I think he's a very solid each way bet at 14/1 with William Hill paying 6 places. I'm not convinced he will get much bigger than that, so I'd advise to take that now.

Global Storm is currently a 16/1 chance and I'm not sure why there's a huge discrepancy in price between him and the reserve Live Your Dream (Won't get in) who was 7/1f. Although the winner at Newmarket last month when they faced each other won cosily enough, Global Storm had to give 6lb to the winner and would of given 3lb. Little details can make a huge difference. Global Storm can handle soft ground, has solid form this season and last, and is a big price at around the 14/1-16/1 on offer.

Those are my 2 against the field in what looks a decent renewal without a potential superstar on show.

Selections:

Away He Goes - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 or bigger (Firms paying 7 or 8 places)

Global Storm - 1.5pts e/w @ 14/1 or bigger (Firms paying 7 or 8 places)

York 5:20 - 5f Sky Bet Apprentice Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)

Another tricky handicap to finish the Ebor Festival and after watching Winter Power storm away with the Nunthorpe, I'm hoping her trainer Tim Easterby can pick up the lucky last tomorrow to finish off a quality week for the trainer in the shape of Showalong. Part owned by an official at York racecourse, it wouldn't surprise me if this was the plan after disappointing at Ascot after a fine 3rd in a decent 3 year old sprint handicap at York back in June. Shown to handle soft ground, and dropped 3lb since that fine effort at York, this looks an able opportunity to get his head in front. This could be of been the plan for this fella and I'll take a chance on him at the 11/1 and bigger available with 4 places.

Selection:

Showalong - 1pt e/w @ 11/1 or bigger (Bookies paying 4 places including Skybet)