Welcome back to another blog post on the Ebor Festival. At the time of writing on the Tuesday before the Ebor, I'm hoping we haven't done the lot on our day 1 selections. I've never really punted much at York or on the Ebor Festival traditionally as I'm not much of flat racing fan compared to the proper stuff over timber, however I have followed the flat season this time on the whole and I hope that will reap rewards. All I can say is roll on October......
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2:25 York - 6f Goffs UK Premier Yearling Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo)
The main memory I have from this race is Mums Tipple slamming the field by 12 lengths a couple of years ago. It was some performance but unfortunately that said horse has never really hit the heights that you'd think he would after that scintillating performance - saying that the field wasn't really up to much. Looking at previous winners, this race doesn't tend to throw up a superstar, however it does tend to throw up a Richard Hannon winner and I won't be looking further than him in this. It's not with the horse you'd think though in System. I'm going to take a chance on the Hannon runner rode by Moore in Oh Herberts Reign. Improving with racing, he looked green again last time out only a few days ago at Newbury in a maiden that had runners from some top yards. Finishing a strong staying 2nd that day, he hung right throughout but rallied to finish a 1/2 2nd behind the winner. Priced at 50/1, it's worth having a small each way on this fella to see if that race at Newbury has improved him again and the Hannon/Moore partnership is always worth noting. He is improving with every run and as long as the rain stays away, he can outrun his odds of 50/1 which is a very fair price.
Update 18/08/2021 19:48
I'd like to add 2 more selections in this race with the value around. Firstly Mojomaker, a horse who finished 2nd to the really smart Asymmetric, winner of the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. Priced at 10/1, on the bare face of the form with the smart King runner - I'll take it paying 5 places with Coral.
Another one to add is the Richard Fahey trained Adeb at 40/1. Rated by his trainer, they expected a big run at Goodwood however he seemed to struggle with the conditions there and a shorter journey from his trainers stable in Yorkshire plus better ground, it would be no surprise to see him run a lot better and 40/1 is a shade big.
Selections:
Oh Hurberts Reign - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power) or 35/1 (4 places Betfair).
Mojomaker - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 or bigger (Coral and William Hill paying 5 places)
Adeb - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Paddy, Betfair)
3:00 York - 1m (7f192y) Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
Another trappy handicap but with Skybet paying 7 places, it would be rude not to get involved with a couple of these. Astro King was my main fancy looking at the race at the 6 day entries and I would put him up having backed him at the 12/1 on offer in the antepost market, however he is only 8/1 in the opening prices. I don't expect him to drift out to a backable price so I will leave him. Whilst he looks like he's going to win a big one soon given his runs at Thirsk and Ascot - I'm not sure he's well treated off 102 and needs to be near group level to win this, and I'm not sure he is at that level.
Looking at the rest of the field, the new David O'Meara recruit Tammani looks interesting. A horse with a bit of back class looking at his form as a 2 year old. Obviously struggled with setbacks since as he's not been seen much, he looks like he prefers cut in the ground and it may be too fast for him tomorrow if it continues to dry. He's one to watch and may be worth investing in if he's strong in the market.
There are 2 I like at the current prices however, the improving Ametist (14/1) and Fox Champion (25/1). Ametist has improved through the season winning his first 3 races before disappointing in the Bunbury Cup over 7f at Newmarket last month. It was his first run in one of those rough heritage handicaps which are traditionally competitive, and the experience won't of been lost on him. Stepping up a furlong in distance, I'm happy to write off his last run and view the step up in trip as a positive one although on breeding you'd have more hope than expectation. 14/1 is fair to take a chance on an improving gelding with Betfair paying 5 places. The other one is Fantastic Fox who enjoys better ground and looks like he may be running into some good form having dropped a considerable amount in the handicap ratings, running off 94 here. He stayed on well enough on sticky ground at Goodwood and a mile on decent ground against a few other exposed horses may be just the ticket for him. 25/1 is fair and I think you'll get bigger on the day with extra places.
Selections:
Ametist - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Betfair)
Fox Champion 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Betfair)
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