Ebor Festival - Day 1 Thoughts

After having a little bit of a rest from racing through July, we are currently counting down the days until the jumps finally comes back proper at Chepstow in October. In the meantime, I am looking forward to punting at the Ebor Festival at York this week. I will share my thoughts on some of the days this week starting below with Day 1...

1:50 York - Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap - 5f

Generally as a rule of thumb I don't tend to punt in sprints but as long as York don't receive a huge deluge of rain then I fully expect Twilight Calls to cement his class on the field here. Priced up at 15/2 - paying 6 places with William Hill - I can't see him out of the frame and I expect him to win here. Disappointed many punters at 5/2f at Goodwood, he wasn't seen to his best on the sticky and tiring conditions, which blunted his finishing kick - however it's worth noting he still ran well. As long as York avoid heavy rain, the bits and bobs of rain currently forecast shouldn't make a huge difference and I expect it to be a lot better ground then Goodwood was back in July. I fully expect him to be better than his mark of 95, and possibly competing in decent group races next season. With the odds of 15/2 paying a small profit on the place with the extra places, I think he's a stonking each way bet and fully expect him to command this race as he will improve once more with further racing.

Selection - Twilight Calls - 2pts e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill 6 places) or 7/1 (Skybet 7 places)

3:00 York - Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) = 1m4f

A no bet race for me with the dead 8 declared and I was hoping for a little more juice in the price, however I would be interested in Third Realm here as an each way punt if priced a little further than the 6/1 currently on offer. Last seen at Goodwood, he ran a credible race at Goodwood staying on in 3rd. It's worth noting that was off a break of 54 days after a decent 5th in the Derby. I would expect him to improve for the run after that break and I think the flat galloping track of York will suit him better than Goodwood or Epsom. He did beat the Derby winner at Lingfield back in May however it's likely the Derby winner improved for racing rather than taking it literally. If priced at around 8/1 or further, I would be backing him each way, the likelihood is that he will not be priced at that so I will leave it. Looking at the other runners, the Queens Vase form looks shaky for the current favourite Kemari, whilst High Definition has done nothing to get his current rating 113 and too many O'Brien horses are priced this season on reputation of the yard rather than ability, and I would prefer the chances of his stablemate Sir Lucan to him. Youth Spirit is another one to consider at the prices with the form of the Gordon Stakes which included both Third Realm and Sir Lucan.

Selection: No Bet - (Unless 8/1+ for Third Realm)

4:10 York - Sky Bet Handicap - 2m1/2f

A tricky race to get a handle on, as is always the case with staying races on the flat. It's no surprise to see some bookmakers open up with Irish raider Arcadian Sunrise as favourite coming off the back of a 3rd in a 2m handicap at the Curragh and his latest run - winning a competitive handicap hurdle at Galway off 136. Priced at 9/2, he won't be seeing my money. Elysian Flame has ran well this season and will no doubt do so again, however he has gone up a few pounds since his win at Newbury in April and might not be well treated off a mark of 100. He looks likely to leave behind a mark of 118 over hurdles behind him though, though he will be a short price over those no doubt.

Looking at the rest of the field, 1 interests me in particular with Platform Nineteen, who came swinging in the 2m4 handicap at Goodwood, looks like a horse who might appreciate the drop back to 2m. Although fairly disappointing in his finishing effort at Goodwood after eyecatching headway, he still stuck at his guns to the line and the track may suit him better after already winning here before. Looking a different animal after a 600+ day break from racing due to an injury, there is still juice in his mark of 89. He looks a solid each way bet at 8/1 already with Skybet paying 6 places, although it may be worth waiting until the morning of the race before delving in.

In the rest of the field you have Scaramanga who won well at Newbury and that form looks very good with the 2nd Rodrigo Diaz finishing 2nd in a Group 3 behind Hukum at the weekend whilst Withold ran superbly at Goodwood in a previously mentioned race. Bodyline ran a fine race on comeback the other week and had to make his own running which didn't suit him at all, whilst Island Brave and Who Dares Wins are 2 exposed stayers who will outrun their odds. The other one for me though is last years 2nd in this race, Rajinsky. He has run to a consistent standard this season and has bits of form that would give him a squeak to run a big race again here. Firstly his 2nd behind Frankenstella at Haydock back in May on heavy ground looks alright enough with some winners and credible runs from various runners involved. 3rd in the Northumberland Plate, it's worth forgetting his last run at Goodwood as it wouldn't surprise me to see connections use that race as a stepping stone for another tilt at York. 1lb lower than his run in the same race last year, he looks more than capable of running another huge race and is an each way bet at 16/1 and bigger with Skybet paying 6 places.

Selections:

Platform Nineteen - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 or bigger (Skybet - paying 6 places)

Rajinsky - 1.5pts e/w @ 16/1 or bigger (Skybet - paying 6 places)

Profit and Loss:

(1 bet) +4.5pts