Antepost: Arkle Novices Chase

The Arkle looks nicely poised right now with a shootout between 2 juveniles from last season including the Triumph Hurdle winner. It’s rare to see two 5 year olds at the top of a novice chase market at Cheltenham, given that most 4 year olds going into their 5 year old campaign tend to struggle at the top level. This year looks different and it’s a refreshing change given that most juveniles going into their open year elect to stay over hurdles.

My Pension Expert Arkle Novices Chase - 2m - Old Course

Sir Gino - Nicky Henderson - Age: 5

Already a winner of the grade 1 Fighting Fifth hurdle at Newcastle this season, before switching to fences to destroy the top class Ballyburn at Kempton in a grade 2 over Christmas. The mere fact that Sir Gino could produce 2 exceptional performances in 2 different spheres inside 4 weeks of each other shows what an exceptional talent he is and is likely to be a 180+ rated chaser with a bit of luck. He looks like he has the pace to travel and a potwntturn of foot, whilst his sharp jumping put Ballyburn under pressure throughout at Kempton. Likely to be seen in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury next month, assuming that goes to plan, he should cement himself even further at the top of the Arkle betting. The obvious winner.

Majborough - Willie Mullins - Age: 5

Triumph Hurdle winner at the festival last year, we should of already seen the matchup between himself and Sir Gino in that race. Unfortunately we were robbed with Nicky Henderson’s stable form at the time. Last years pain in the Triumph is this years gain for the Arkle, and assuming everything goes right for both the 5 year olds in their prep runs next month, we should see a mouthwatering matchup. Majborough has already been tipped for big things by his trainer as soon as he stepped into the yard, and he is likely to be a top class chaser over different trips for years to come. An impressive winner in his beginners chase at Fairyhouse putting 2 smart horses in Tullyhill and Asian Master away with ease, he is set to contest the Arkle at the DRF and should further strengthen his claims.

Ile Atlantique - Willie Mullins - Age: 7

A disappointing novice hurdler last season, he has turned a corner over fences having been impressive on both his starts over the larger obstacles. Winner of the inaugural grade 2 Racing Post novice chase at Naas in early, he put away 2 smart novices in Firefox and Inthepocket on atrocious ground with ease. Whether he is a genuine 2 miler is up for debate, however he looks a different horse this year over fences. I still worry about his sires progeny, who are a little bit soft in a battle and need to control races or things need to fall their way - I believe this lad is the same. See Asterion Forlonge, Saint Roi et al.

L’Eau De Sud - Dan Skelton - Age: 8

In only 12 months, Dan Skelton’s gelding has improved from a rating of 129 over hurdles to a 152 rated grade 1 winning novice chaser at present. A winner of the Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown back in December, he’s caught the eye this season with solid jumping and the pace to travel well throughout his races. Although he has been facing slightly underwhelming opposition this season, he has impressed nonetheless and goes into the Arkle as a horse with place claims and could take advantage if any of the main protagonists don’t turn up or run their race.

Firefox - Gordon Elliott - Age: 7

At the start of the season I was fully expecting Firefox to be one of the main contenders for the Arkle, especially as I was expecting both Sir Gino and Majborough to stay over hurdles this season. Well I suppose he is still a contender, albeit a 25/1 shot but he would be my idea of a horse who can fill the frame if things go his way on the day. Beaten twice in the Drinmore (messy race) and by Ile Atlantique at Naas (bottomless ground), he’s still run credible races in both and with decent spring ground he can outperform his odds. Still entered in the Arkle at the DRF this weekend; I’m hoping he swerves this engagement and goes fresh to the Arkle where he should give a good account of himself despite the tough opposition.

Inthepocket - Henry De Bromhead - Age: 8

Another horse who was punted into shorter odds (as low as 8/1) and is now a 25/1 shot after being turned over by Ile Atlantique at Naas in early January. He looked a tricky ride that day for his jockey and pulled too hard throughout the race. Suffered with niggly injuries since his novice hurdle days of 2023 when he won a grade 1 at Aintree, he missed the rest of his novice chase campaign last season after only 1 run. At 8 years old he may have lost a bit of his speed shown in his younger and might end up going up in trip at Aintree or Punchestown.. A talented horse who looks set to go straight to the festival after being taken out of his DRF engagements - assuming he’s fit and firing after his disappointing Naas run.

Kalif Du Berlais - Paul Nicholls - Age: 5

Another 5 year old who’s impressed this season, he’s been one of Paul Nicholls shining lights in a disappointing season for the former champion trainer. A talented chaser who looks set to be a grade 1 winner at some point in the future, he is owned by the same firm as L’Eau De Sud and I fully expect his connections to aim for Aintree instead. If he did compete at Cheltenham, he wouldn’t be a horse you’d want to dismiss lightly.

Mistergif - Willie Mullins - Age; 6

5th in the Supreme last season, he won his opening beginners chase well at Fairyhouse in early January and looks a decent chaser for connections going forwards in the next season or 2. Beating Tullyhill and Asian Mastet is solid enough form and given he isn’t entered at the DRF, I’m not sure where his next run will be. Pricewise selection at 50/1 and isn’t a back number.

Conclusion:

Given the betting it looks like an open matchup between the two 5 year olds in Sir Gino and MAJBOROUGH. Preference is for the Willie Mullins gelding right now at the prices given we’re still over 6 weeks away from the Arkle and Sir Gino is trading at around 8/11.

Quite clearly Nicky Henderson’s charge Sir Gino looks the obvious winner, and the horse looks a potential 180+ rated chaser in the future. For a 4 year old to win the Fighting Fifth over hurdles and then come out and win the Wayward Lad over fences beating a top class Ballyburn in the process is practically unheard of and it’s going to take a supreme horse to beat him on the day. Majborough looks a grade 1 horse all over and if there are any chinks in Sir Gino’s armour on the day, the Triumph Hurdle winner will be able to exploit them. He is the bet at 3/1 despite his opposition.

Looking further down the list and the horse that stands out at the moment is Firefox who has solid each way claims at 25/1. A comfortable jumper, I don’t think his defeats at Fairyhouse and Naas tell the full picture and I expect him to jump soundly from the front on decent ground - unless something else wants to lead. He might lack the finishing kick of the front 2 in the market however and it’s hoped he doesn’t blow his race apart too early. A place only bet on the day would be interesting and it’s hoped he swerves his DRF entry and his trainer elects to go here fresh after his Naas run in atrocious conditions.

Bets:

Majborough - 1pt win @ 3/1 NRNB (William Hill)

Already advised:

Romeo Coolio - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Supreme Novices Hurdle .