Antepost: Ultima Handicap Chase

With the weights released for all handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival; punters will be going through every puzzle and trying to piece everything together. Whilst it's one of my favourite things to do, it's a long process and I'll probably change my mind many times before the race off. First we'll start with the opening handicap, the Ultima. I'll go through some of the contenders and hopefully pick out a winner. Unfortunately I may miss out horses who will run, but at this stage I'll mainly pick horses who I think will run or are confirmed to run.

2:50 Cheltenham - 3m1f - Ultima Handicap Chase

Eldorado Allen - OR153 - 20/1

I'm assuming this lad will be top weight so they could put Freddie Gingell on board to take off a few pounds. He's a horse who can run with credit and if Gingell takes off 5lb he could be a horse who can fill the top 5 given he runs consistently and will suit the old course as he travels well enough.

Stumptown - OR148 - 10/1

I think the blinkers will do the trick with this fella and he's set for a big run. There's no juice in his price at this stage however. A winner at Cheltenham on New Years Day, he was a bit of an awkward horse to ride in the Kim Muir and the blinkers will definitely help him. Whether he's quick enough for this race is an issue but he looks to hold a good chance with the blinkers on sharpening him up.

The Goffer - OR147 - 8/1

4th in this last year, he's been dropped 2lb since last years attempt where he hit the front 2 out and faded into 4th. Perhaps he can be ridden with a little more restraint and delivered later this year. This years race looks a little weaker than last years, so he holds very strong claims. Better ground seems his cup of tea.

Monbeg Genius - OR147 - 10/1

Likely to run at Kelso this weekend in the Premier Chase as a prep for the Grand National. 3rd in this race last year which is really strong form, and ran well in the Hennessy Gold Cup bsck in December finishing 3rd. If he ran here, he'd clearly hold serious claims.

Meetingofthewaters - OR147 - 8/1

Easy winner of the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over the festive period. I think this would be an excellent race for him en-route to the Grand National where connections feel he has a cracking chance according to a few interviews recently. He was brought down early on at the DRF when not fancied, but needs one more run to qualify for the National and I think he'll run well here.

Glengouly - OR146 - 20/1

A fine 2nd in the Thyestes last month, he's probably going to run in the Munster National or wait for Aintree.

Giovinco - OR146 - 14/1

Giovinco has the option of the Ultima or the Brown Advisory. My view is that he's probably a little soft for the Ultima and would be suited by the Brown Advisory at this stage in a likely small field. Lucinda Russell has had the winner of the Ultima the last 2 years in Corach Rambler but despite being a novice he had ran in 5 chases including having experience in a big field Classic Chase handicap at Warwick plus he had 5 runs in point to points too. Giovinco has experience in 5 chases (and 3 point to points) but those were small field novice chases (maximum field of 7) but to my eye he looks a little babyish and soft for the helter-skelter of the Ultima and would suit the Brown Advisory at this stage of his career.

Eklat De Rire - OR146 - 25/1

Never fuifilled his potential after looking like a smart novice chaser but that's mainly been due to injuries. Despite being 10 now, he probably hasn't done enough racing to be totally exposed and should win a handicap at some stage if he can stay sound. He's often overbet being lightly raced, so after disappointing so many times you might get a price about him when he does bag a decent race. I think he needs very soft ground to be at his best. Had a decent pipe opener at Fairyhouse last time out but isn't given much room off a mark of 146.

Victtorino - OR145 - 25/1

Has suffered with jumping errors since his 2 victories at Ascot earlier in the season. I'm assuming he will run, but he will have to jump better. Was eye catching at Ascot last time out despite making several errors which shows he has some manoeuvre off his current mark.

Inothewayurthinkin - OR145 - 14/1

I'm unsure whether he will run here or the Kim Muir as he slips into the Kim Muir off top weight. He's a punters horse as he's been eye catching all year over fences and went off 11/2 at the DRF where he ran no race. Saying that, the big field handicap experience that day will of done him well for a big handicap at Cheltenham, so don't write him off.

Trelawne - OR144 - 16/1

An interesting runner despite his obvious quirks. He is probably most well known for drifting markedly right at Wetherby in the Towton before finishing 2nd to Colonel Harry. He's already ran at Cheltenham and ran well behind Ginny's Destiny. He ran well enough over 2m3 at Exeter in first time cheekpieces and needs to go up in trip. If he runs here, he is very interesting along with his stablemate Chianti Classico. I'm not sure they will both run.

Twig - OR143 - 18/1

2nd on course and distance in October to Whacker Clan, he probably doesn't have much wiggle room in his handicap rating. Saying that he's a tough horse who could run his race if the ground is decent. Probably not well handicapped.

Shan Blue - OR143 - 25/1

A horse who's always threatened but never delivered at the big festivals. Since falling when well clear in the Charlie Hall, he's had a few P's by his name but came back to form this season at Ascot in December. That followed on with another decent run at Ascot a couple of weeks ago, however that form is questionable with Threeunderthrufive and Rapper Infront. Place claims as he's coming back into some sort of form.

Chianti Classico - OR143 - 10/1

Has obvious claims and I think he'll go well. Should of probably won at Kempton in a handicap in January, but it's obvious Kim Bailey advised Harry Cobden to go wide and allow his lad to find a rhythm and get him jumping cleanly. It was also a confidence builder and there's nothing better than a positive experience for a novice chaser to build on. He's well handicapped but will need things to fall his way even more as an inexperienced chaser.

Cloudy Glen - OR142 - 33/1

He's a horse who has some classy backform and is a better horse than last year where he didn't start his campaign until late February after over a year off. He's had an uninterrupted season so far and has ran a couple of decent races. If he gets good ground (unlikely) he could outrun his odds.

Amirite - OR142 - 16/1

Another one who needs good ground, and isn't a strong finisher. I've always maintained that he needs headgear and I hope they try it here as it might allow him to go through with his race a bit better.

Life In The Park - OR139 - 33/1

Like the two above, he needs good ground. When he gets that and things fall his way, he should win a decent handicap at some point.

City Chief - OR138 - 25/1

He's a decent little horse who probably prefers better ground too, I'm assuming his long term aim will be the Scottish Grand National but if he gets better ground he could run well here first. Has the option of the Kim Muir too.

Theatre Man - OR137 - 16/1

He has the option of the Plate on the Thursday, but I think he might suit this course and judging by his last effort he wants 3 miles. You could say he's probably a little tripless as he's inbetween the middle distance 2m4 to 3m, but he settled a little better last time out and might be worth a go here if the ground dries up.

Apple Away - OR137 - 25/1

This is supposedly her target but might struggle to get in. There is plenty of deadwood in this race who won't run, so she may get lucky. If she gets in, she has a small chance off 137. She isn't the biggest mare in the world but she's robust enough for a handicap to my eye. She doesn't have any big field experience over fences which is helpful here however, but would have an each way squeak off a low weight if she were to get in.

Weveallbeencaught - OR134 - 16/1

Another one who might struggle to get in. Found to have a fibrillating heart when well beat at Cheltenham in December. He was a chaser I was looking forward to but has tailed off since being well beat in a novice hurdle at the DRF last season. Probably needs a confidence building run, I can't see him winning despite his potential featherweight mark.

Bowtogreatness - OR133 - 20/1

He is potentially interesting but unlikely to get in the race unless 30+ runners come out. He's improving over fences and recently ran a cracker at Kempton in the lucrative Coral Trophy at the weekend. If he gets in, he has a chance but it's likely he will try to win the handicap chase at Aintree in April that he was 2nd in last season.

Conclusion:

Like all handicaps it's hard to provide a definitive answer to the question until we know the confirmed ground description. I'll go on the basis it will be beautiful soft ground which should be suitable for 90% of the runners. There's four runners at the top of the market which catch my eye as horses who look set to run well. Stumptown, The Goffer, Meetingofthewaters and Chianti Classico. The first 2 aren't exceptionally well handicapped and The Goffer would prefer better ground which he may get. He hit the front early enough last season and a more patient ride might help. Stumptown looks like blinkers will help him eek more improvement out, but is he quick enough for this race on the sharp and turning old course?

That leaves me with MEETINGOFTHEWATERS and CHIANTI CLASSICO. Chianti Classico will enjoy a bit of cut in the ground if there is any rain around the first day of the festival, but has shown he is able to handle decent ground too. I'd say it was by design that Harry Cobden took such a wide route in his staying on 2nd at Kempton in January. The job was to build his confidence for this type of race and he will be going into it on a positive experience. He looks exactly the type of horse you want for this race and assuming things fall right for him, he has a good chance of hitting the frame at the minimum off a mark of 143. The Willie Mullins charge won the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas and is likely to run well here before a tilt at the Grand National. He has risen over a stone in the handicap, but I think he'll run well here en-route to the Grand National for his shrewd connections. I'll split stakes on both.

Further down the list there are two interesting novices in Theatre Man and Trelawne. The latter has a kink but is talented and needs 3 miles but might be a bit of a monkey for this field after his antics at Wetherby. Whilst the former could end up in the Plate. 2 to keep in mind. An Irish novice Inothewayurthinkin is likely to go elsewhere too. Lucinda Russell has a couple to keep in mind but I think Giovinco isn't ready for this race at this stage of his career and Apple Away probably won't get in.

Bigger prices to consider and these are likely to be part of the rags of the field. Eldorado Allen might have a claimer on board and would be a place proposition on the day, and keep an eye on 2 inconsistent horses like Cloudy Glen and Shan Blue if they get good ground. The same could be said for Amirite. 3 monkeys who could run big races if things fall right. Having a little bit of backclass does help in this race - see Vintage Clouds and Beware The Bear for example.

Bets:

Chianti Classico - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 NRNB (General)

Meetingofthewaters - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 NRNB (Skybet)

Already Advised:

Bold Endeavour - 0.75pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024)

Gowel Road - 1.5pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024

State Man - 2pts @ 8/11 (NRNB) - Champion Hurdle (Advised 28/02/2024)

Dancing City - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Albert Bartlett (Advised 26/02/2024)

Firefox - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Supreme Novices Hurdle (Advised 23/02/2024)

Embassy Gardens - 1pt win @ 5/2 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Broadway Boy - 1.5pts ew @ 10/1 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB - Turners Novice Chase (Advised 18/02/2024)

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)