Antepost: Turners Novices Chase

The novice chases at Cheltenham look set to cut up massively especially in this race. There are currently 24 runners entered for the 2m4f Grade 1, but a number of the entries have other options and it would look a miracle if we had double digit confirmations. I'm probably a little late to the party on this race as the bookmakers have cottoned on to the fact that there will be a seriously small amount of runners and have defensively priced up all each way runners. You can't really blame them, but it's another reason why jumps racing is becoming so uncompetitive both on the turf and off it.

1:30 Cheltenham - 2m4f- Turners Novices Chase - Thursday 14th March 2024

Il Est Francais - 7/4

Still entered despite connections having the opportunity to scratch him from the confirmation stage the other week, however it's been confirmed several times that he won't be running here. I don't really understand why they have kept him in, so will they be tempted to run despite their suggestions he won't be. I'm writing this on the provision that he won't be running.

Ginny's Destiny - 11/4

Probably a solid enough favourite at the moment given the question marks that remain about many of the other runners in terms of suitability for this race or holding other targets. He's been a revelation over fences after moving from Tom Lacey to Paul Nicholls. He's improved 20lb over fences from a mark of 135 to 155, and given he has done all his running at Cheltenham over the same distance as the Turners, he holds a solid chance if a little unspectacular in profile. He is simple enough given he travels and jumps at a good pace and it's a catch me if you can ride. That's not to say he isn't a good horse but Cobden and Nicholls do the simple things to such a high standard, he will be hard to pass. There's no juice in his price however.

Fact to File - 5/1

The general conensus seems to be that Fact to File but will be going to the Brown Advisory based on vibes from connections recently. If he does turn up in the Turners, he would hold a very good chance given the lack of true Grade 1 animals. A Gold Cup horse in the making, the nagging doubt over him would be that he's not been in a true baptism of fire over fences which you often need in the novice chases at Cheltenham. He does have a fine chance wherever he goes, however it's likely to be the Brown Advisory at the moment.

Facile Vega - 6/1

As discussed in the Arkle preview, I think Facile Vega definitely needs to come up in trip and I'm very hopeful that Willie Mullins will finally relent and allow the Walk in the Park gelding to do it in the Turners. As mentioned before, given his frame and general size, Facile Vega finds it hard to jump at speed over 2 miles cleanly as he isn't nimble enough with his feet both before taking off and on landing, and speeds a wee bit longer in the air than others. His general form is top class despite being a disappointment to many over the last year or so given his numerous Grade 1 wins. Assuming he does go up in trip, I expect Paul Townend to ride and he would have an excellent chance barring any jumping errors.

Gaelic Warrior - 6/1

He went out like a busted flush at Leopardstown and it must be questionable whether he runs at Cheltenham. He also looks like he definitely wants to go right handed. The best thing to do would be to wait until Fairyhouse for the Ryanair Gold Cup. If he did run, you'd have to respect his ability but surely the race conditions wouldn't suit him. It's up to connections to make a decision.

Grey Dawning - 6/1

I think when connections take a look at this race with Ginny's Destiny as clear favourite, they may consider a tilt at this race rather than the Brown Advisory. Given he was unlucky to finish 2nd to the aforementioned horse in December, making a rather shuddering mistake at the 2nd last conceding ground to the eventual winner, I wouldn't be surprised to see Dan Skelton choose to try and reverse the defeat in March. It may come down to ground too, especially if the ground is soft enough on the Thursday. If it's good ground, then I would say they'll be forced to go to the 3 mile race. On the whole he's a good jumper, who travels well and has shown an aptitude for the Cheltenham hill. He may just lack a little bit of tactical speed on better ground.

Iroko - 6/1

A real springer in the market lately. It was confirmed pre-Christmas that he had suffered a season ending injury, however his trainers recently have confirmed a quicker than thought recovery to be able to come back this season and it's likely he will run here. Impressive in his only outing over fences this season, I would expect his inexperience to be shown up against more experienced rivals come March especially at championship pace, but he should give a good enough showing given his obvious class. If I were connections I would target him at the Pendil next week at Kempton and then onto Aintree. The likelihood is that he doesn't need such a tough test given his injury ravaged season but there is only one Cheltenham Festival.

American Mike - 20/1

Surprised winner of the Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan last week, he should probably head to the Brown Advistory as he seemed to enjoy the 3 miles despite being a little idle on the run in. If he did run, he'd probably run a decent race as he looks a more stronger and mature horse this season. Despite bombing out at Limerick on deep ground in December, he will pay his way in decent chases this spring. Has an each way squeak.

Djelo - 33/1

Improved considerably this season as a novice chaser given he finished last season as a 128 rated hurdler. He's now rated 148 over fences and has improved through the year culminating in finishing 2nd in a Grade 1 earlier this month. He won't have the class of some of the main protagonists but if he finished in the top 4 that would be a good run for Venetia Williams' gelding.

Zanahiyr - 33/1

One of the classiest horses in the field having finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle twice. Not the most natural of chasers, I hope they don't overface him at Cheltenham as I think for him to have longevity in his chasing career, he needs to keep building his confidence in small field Grade 2 chases for instance rather than in the heat of the battle at Cheltenham.

Imagine - 40/1

Moved from Gordon Elliott to Harry Derham recently when fetching over 300k at the Brown dispersal sale the other week. He probably needs to acclimatise given his move across the Irish Sea, but is likely to run if he's A1. He'll be a decent horse to follow in the UK over the next couple of years as there are more opportunities for him in big field handicaps and graded races where he isn't competing against top class Willie Mullins horses. Finishing in the frame would be an excellent run, and that's not out the realms of possibility especially if it cuts up drastically as I think he has a little more speed and class compared to other bigger priced horses.

Colonel Harry - 50/1

A real trier, he probably needs to go left handed and have heavy ground to be at his best. He will likely be tapped for speed throughout the race but may come home strong and pick up some pieces especially if there is a small field and the race falls apart. A top 4 finish can make his connections proud.

Le Patron - 50/1

Grade winner albeit it in name only. If you forgive his latest run in the Scilly Isles, he could be a big price at 50/1 given the race is going to cut up drastically. However you can say that for a number of runners in the field, so where do you draw the line? I'm not sure his target but if he does go, he'll be vying with Djelo, Imagine, Colonel Harry et al for the best of the rest.

Sharjah - 50/1

Probably doesn't get the trip, however as mentioned in the Arkle preview he has performed really admirably over fences given his age. If he gets good ground then he should run his race and pick up some prize money.

Conclusion:

Fact To File is likely to head to the Brown Advisory at the current time of writing, however you can never be sure on that given he's trained by Willie Mullins. If he does run, he has a fantastic chance to take this Grade 1 prize and then should go on to progress away through the year and beyond to be a Gold Cup horse next season. That's the dream for connections anyway. The one nagging doubt with Fact To File is that he hasn't had a proper race over fences where he's been amongst a handful of runners going at a good pace which tests his mentality and jumping to the fullest. This usually hardens a novice chaser going to Cheltenham. See El Fabiolo and Stage Star last year for example. However this mignt not be a question he has to answer given the likely small field.

It doesn't matter who does run however, there's no doubting that Ginny's Destiny will make it a test and try to expose any jumping deficiencies amongst the other runners in the field. He will go from the front, and try to gallop and jump these into submission. He could easily do that given the race is looking notably weak if Fact To File runs in the Brown Advisory, however at 11/4 the value is gone. He will probably be the same price on the day at the minimum.

It's a theme that the value has gone from the market in every runner from a non-runner-no-bet point of view, and I'm annoyed I didn't do this blog a little earlier as I would of got 10/1 about FACILE VEGA (Hindsight is a wonderful thing) only a few days ago and is now only as big as 5/1. As mentioned, I believe now is the time for Facile Vega to step up in trip as he will never be a 2 miler over fences due to his size. He's not agile or nimble enough given his monstrous size to jump quickly against some of the more compact horses in the Arkle, and would appreciate a step up in trip sooner rather than later on the big stage. As discussed, despite him disappointing both connections and punters since bombing out in the Dublin Racing Festival last year, he still holds top class form having finished 2nd in the Supreme and has competed well enough over fences in the Grade 1s. It's now time for Willie Mullins to step him up in trip, and he's my selection as I expect him to improve further with that step up in distance. It's a shame we can't get bigger than 5/1, however it's not certain he will run in the Turners just yet and Willie could easily plump for the Arkle still. It makes sense to take the NRNB concession to be safe at this stage.

If Dan Skelton decides to revert Grey Dawning back to the Turners, he will also hold a big chance given his unlucky run behind Ginny's Destiny over fences back in December at this course. If he gets soft ground, that will only help his cause and he's a massive danger to Ginny's Destiny and Facile Vega if he runs. I think it all hinges on the ground with him. Further down the list it may be worth taking a couple of darts on each way places as this race could cut up to 6 or 7 runners, so the 3 places on offer currently with firms represents value. My choice would be Imagine if pushed, assuming he acclimatises well for his move to Harry Derham at 40/1.

Bets:

Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB (Bet365)

Already Advised:

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)