Antepost: TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase

Having just completed a preview of the Grand Annual where it was seemingly one of the most open handicaps of the festival; this race looks quite short on class and lacking real depth upon first glance. Let's have a look at the contenders and see what stands out.

4:10 Cheltenham - 2m41/2f - TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase

GA Law - OR156 - 14/1

There's talk that he will be supplemented for the Ryanair, where he'd hold each way claims again. If he ran here he'd have a decent chance although he isn't holding much off a mark of 156 now. He lost his way after a fall last season at Doncaster, so isn't worth writing off.

Letsbeclearaboutit - OR152 - 11/1

If GA Law diverts to the Ryanair, Gavin Cromwell's charge will probably be top weight given runners above him are also very unlikely to run. That gives him a tough task as a novice to give weight to the whole field. He's a good jumper generally, wants this sort of trip and does have experience as a novice having ran 5 times over fences this season. Forget his last run as it was a run to get him qualified for the Grand National. He has a good chance as it's an average enough renewal of the race this year but the fact he has to give weight to the rest of the field is a worry for a novice chaser.

James Du Berlais - OR152 - 16/1

His main target is the Topham, but he's been running well in handicaps this season. The problem is he's probably weighted too high as he has travelled into his races with zest but finds a few better handicapped judging by his 2 runs at Leopardstown this season. He's not the strongest of finishers either. Unlikely to turn up but he's an each way shout if he runs.

Seddon - OR149 - 16/1

Last years winner, he's coming off a long break after disappointing in the American Grand National. 6lb higher then last year, he's got to be respected but I'd be looking to take him on given his age.

Adamantly Chosen - OR148 - 20/1

If it's decent ground (good to soft at worst) he is definitely on my shortlist. He's a talented animal, albeit frustrating, but he definitely has ability and if he gets good ground he'll be bang there. One to keep in mind for the Galway Plate in the summer too. He doesn't particularly like winning but he hasn't had his conditions yet this season. He might need to creep a bit down the handicap before getting his head Infront however.

Saint Felicien - OR146 - 14/1

This is the race for him as he doesn't jump cleanly or quickly enough for 2 miles. He's clearly really talented and highly thought of, but his jumping will need to stand the test. He's jumped better in each race this season, and he could possibly be better than a mark of 146. One to consider and he stinks of an Elliott handicap chaser plot.

Il Ridoto - OR146 - 20/1

He's ran plenty of cracking races at Cheltenham, and might be one for the places. No idea if he runs here as he ran at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. Will run his race if he goes.

Sa Fureur - OR145 - 16/1

Gordon Elliott has confirmed he will head for the Grand Annual, so it looks like Saint Felicien is number 1 for this race which adds intrigue.

Shakem Up'Arry - OR143 - 14/1

3rd in this last season, he's always shaped like he can win a big one but isn't the strongest of finishers. He won at Cheltenham on NYD albeit it in a poor race where Stage Star pulled up and the race fell apart on heavy ground. He's always threatened to win a big race handicap but doesn't go through with it, and I think it'll be the same here.

Madara - OR143 - 12/1

Connections have mentioned they are favouring the Grand Annual over this. If he did run here, he'd have a very good chance given how weak it's looking.

Crebilly - OR140 - 9/2

He's been the plunge horse in recent weeks and you'd say he's probably fairly handicapped off 140. But to take 9/2 about a horse who's had 3 spins over fences and isn't a handicap blot by any means isn't for me. Yes he's got the right profile and mixed it with some decent horses this season, but he doesn't scream a high level horse. He'll be a decent handicapper in the future no doubt, but at the price I don't want to back him. It's a weak race and I can understand why he's favourite however.

Life In The Park - OR138 - 25/1

I think this lad will win a decent handicap as long as he gets decent ground. He's only 7 and I think he's maturing as he runs. He might pop up in the top 6 or 7 at a big price if it's decent ground.

Theatre Man - OR137 - 7/1

I was hoping this lad might go to the Ultima but assuming there's some dig in the ground I think this looks the right opportunity for him. The issue with him is that he probably wants 2m6f as he hasn't settled well enough for 3 miles, but judging by his run at Cheltenham in January he needs slightly further than a middle distance trip. He should get the pace he needs here for a good stamina test and he's likely got a few pounds in hand. The only issue is his lack of experience.

Arctic Bresil - OR135 - 25/1

I'm not sure if he runs here as he looks like a horse who may appreciate having his sights set lower this season as a novice chaser. Caught the eye at Punchestown last time out, but would probably do his confidence the world of good if he can find a small field beginners chase to win. Perhaps the end of season target will be the novice handicap at Punchestown. Unlikely to get in the race too.

Conclusion:

Having gone through the race runner for runner, it was surprising to see how weak this contest is. There is a fair bit of deadwood and there are only a handful of runners who you can give real chances too. Of course there could be a turn up and something at a big price will win, but it's lacking horses with genuine backclass too. I wonder if connections of the likes of James Du Berlais or Classic Getaway might run here even despite them shouldering a big weight.

Crebilly clearly has his chance based on the fact he's off a mark of 140 and has shown he can mix it with the current Turners favourite Ginny's Destiny and others who provide solid form. He obviously has a good chance here but I can't back him at 4/1 which he generally is. Letsbeclearaboutit has decent claims too but will have to shoulder a big weight, and give weight all round to horses like Crebilly and Theatre Man too. That's a big ask as a novice.

There are two I'll side with as alternatives to Crebilly. Assuming we get a little bit of rain in the run up to the festival, and he gets in the race of course, THEATRE MAN looks the type of horse who'll run well. He also has form with Ginny's Destiny having been a staying on 2nd to him on trials day. He will be a 3 miler in the future of course and the Hennessy looks an ideal future target but this race probably will suit him better than the Ultima just incase he doesn't settle. He will get a fast pace and be coming home strong in my mind. Although he's a novice, he will be ridden prominently which is a positive in this race and I'm hoping he can hold his position coming down the hill. I'll take a punt on him as an alternative to Crebilly at the prices. I'm crossing my fingers that he gets in the race, as he needs over a dozen horses to defect.

There are a handful of each way alternatives to the top two in the betting. Adamently Chosen would interest me as long as he gets good ground, however that looks a little unlikely at this stage. Shakem Up'Arry looks a very good place bet for the day as he's pretty much guaranteed to jump cleanly and travel through the race. He's not the strongest in the finish so I'd expect something to pick him up late on. Whilst Madara and GA Law are both solid chances but seemingly have their sights set on other targets.

I didn't think I'd say this a few weeks ago but having watched a number of his races recently SAINT FELICIEN has improved in each novice chase he's ran in this season and looks like he'll be Gordon Ellliott's number 1 for this race and can finally justify his potential off a mark of 146 in this. As mentioned in the Grand Annual preview, I didn't think the Saint Des Saints gelding was a clean or fast enough jumper for the 2 mile event but this test will help his jumping as they'll go a touch slower. He's been ridden prominent this season and that will be a positive here with Jack Kennedy being on board another clear positive too. He's been a disappointing buy for Elliott and Robcour since his big money purchase from France as a young hurdler. He went off 9/2f for the Coral Cup in 2022 but must of got injured as he wasn't seen for over 600 days until a beginners chase this season. He's finally had an interrupted season this year and that will benefit him hugely too. He might still be an inexperienced horse having only had 8 runs under rules, but given this is an average renewal he holds decent claims as an each way alternative to the top two in the betting.

Bets:

Theatre Man - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB (Bet365)

Saint Felicien - 1.25pts ew @ 14/1 (Betfair)

Already Advised:

Saint Roi - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Grand Annual (Advised 04/03/2024)

Solness - 0.75pts ew @ 16/1 NRNB - Grand Annual (Advised 04/03/2024)

In Excelsis Deo - 0.75pts ew @ 16/1 NRNB - Grand Annual (Advised 04/03/2024)

Ballyadam - 1.25pts ew @ 25/1 NRNB - Coral Cup (Advised 01/03/2024)

Brazil - 1.25pts ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Coral Cup (Advised 01/03/2024)

Milan Tino - 1.5pts ew @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Fred Winter (Advised 29/02/2024)

Ose Partir - 0.75pts ew @ 25/1 (NRNB) - Fred Winter (Advised 29/02/2024)

Chianti Classico - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)

Meetingofthewaters - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)

Bold Endeavour - 0.75pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024)

Gowel Road - 1.5pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024

State Man - 2pts @ 8/11 (NRNB) - Champion Hurdle (Advised 28/02/2024)

Dancing City - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Albert Bartlett (Advised 26/02/2024)

Firefox - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Supreme Novices Hurdle (Advised 23/02/2024)

Embassy Gardens - 1pt win @ 5/2 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Broadway Boy - 1.5pts ew @ 10/1 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB - Turners Novice Chase (Advised 18/02/2024)

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)