ANTEPOST: Take Phil to the Caribean in the Paddy Power

People who have no interest in horse racing will be hoping the dry weather continues, however every single National Hunt fan will be praying for the heavens to open soon enough. With the lack of rain, most of the top class horses won't be risked on firmer ground and the competitiveness will decline until we see some serious rain. With the upcoming 3 day Open Meeting at Cheltenham this weekend, there doesn't seem much rain around, certainly not to make a difference to the ground. This means that the Open will probably be on 'good' ground and this may dilute the fields. With the lack of competitive racing in the United Kingdom already, it's only going to get worse with the lack of rain too. Lets hope for a change soon, and lets hope for a bit of luck in the race below too!

Saturday 13th November - Cheltenham 2:15 - Paddy Power Gold Cup 2m4f

The Paddy Power looks set to be run on good ground this year and you'll be looking for horses who can keep their position and travel well, as well as having the toughness to handle a big field where space is at a premium. Soft horses who don't like being bullied around in the gallop won't enjoy this, and often a positive is finding a horse who's had big field experience in decent races at a spring festival. I'm not really sure the long term favourite Protektorat will enjoy the hustle and bustle as well as others at his stage of his chasing career, and his only big field experience in a decent race was in the Coral Cup where he was well beaten. I'm not saying he won't win, but I'd be hesitant over backing him in this big field at his current price. His win at Aintree in April in the Manifesto Novices Chase is very good form however, and he's no doubt a talented horse if a little quirky at times.

The other horses at the top of the betting include Lalor, who's a ridiculous price, purely a price based on his stable move and the fact that Paul Kealy tipped him. I couldn't trust a horse like Lalor, who has a hole in him, at his current odds despite having a huge amount of ability. Al Dancer is another horse at the top of the betting and would have a fair chance, given he's 5lb lower after his fine 3rd in this last season. The move to Sam Thomas is a positive, and he is another talented horse who has the speed to travel and jumps well. 8/1 looks fair enough right now and you may get bigger on the day.

Midnight Shadow, Coole Cody and Simply The Betts are all notable horses who will probably all run consistently in handicaps this season, whilst Galahad Quest caught the eye of many with his run at Wetherby but I think he needs a little more cut in the ground to sway things in his favour more. There are 2 horses at decent prices however who I will concentrate on, who will enjoy the conditions and also have experience in handicaps over fences which should prepare them well for this test. Firstly CARIBEAN BOY who should win a decent pot over fences this year off his current mark of 148. Coming from France, he was pigeon holed as a horse who wants soft ground, but his best performances have come on better ground including his 4 length defeat of Fiddlerontheroof at Newbury last November (Colin Parker winner last month), whilst he caught the eye staying on in the Paddy Power Plate at the Festival in March. He endured a rough passage in the Plate, a race which paid to be handy throughout. He actually found himself too far back that day and passed plenty of horses in the run-in to suggest he still has improvement in him. The experience that day won't of been lost on him either, and will set him up well for this tilt on Saturday on decent ground. Priced at 14/1 currently with 4 places on offer with Ladbrokes, he's my main bet of the race currently.

The other contender worth having a few quid on each way is the Hobbs trained DOSTAL PHIL. A horse who was last seen unseating whilst going okay at the Punchestown Festival. Went off 5/1 that day, the step up in trip was expected to suit this Coastal Path gelding and I believe he can show his true worth this weekend. Catching the eye at Aintree in the Red Rum Handicap Chase over 2 miles, he stayed on well that day - in a race that should prove decent form this season with Sully Doc AA winning next time out at Punchestown, whilst Editeur Du Gite was running well enough at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. Dostal Phil's last win over fences at Sandown is good form with the 2nd that day (Funambule Sivola) now rated 156 after a good run against Shishkin at Aintree, whilst Grey Diamond has run consistently since. At 20/1 with Skybet, I expect him to be well backed on the day and I believe that 20/1 is a cracking price each way.

There you have 2 horses who have the ability to travel well, enjoy better ground and looked can improve off their current marks. The only negative would be the lack of a recent run, however with the market revolving around 2 horses at the top of the betting, there is juice in both from an each way angle.

Selections:

Caribean Boy - 1.5pts e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

Dostal Phil - 1.5pts e/w @ 20/1 (Skybet)