Antepost: Supreme Novices Hurdle

This website has been on the quiet side since last season, but I am determined to preview all 28 races at Cheltenham just like last season. It was a tricky enough Cheltenham in 2024 with plenty of horses having different targets to what was expected at the time - as always - and races changed dramatically in shape by the start of the festival. See Gaelic Warrior for a prime example, whilst Fact or File and Grey Dawning were set to contest different races a few weeks out. Slade Steel was supposed to be running in the Gallaghers before Ballyburn was confirmed for that race a few days before. It can wreck your head if you’re an antepost punter at the festival.

As per last seasons previews, I will try and identify all the main candidates for each race and provide a conclusion, and hopefully a winner for you. Things do, and will change, in the run up to the greatest show on turf, but I will do my best to supply likely runners (and winners) for all 28 races. The festival opens with the Supreme Novices Hurdle on day 1, and it’s that race which provides me with my first attempt at finding the winner before trying to piece together the puzzle for the following 27 races. I hope you enjoy the series.

Supreme Novices Hurdle - 2m1/2f - Old Course 

Salvator Mundi - Willie Mullins - Age: 5

Currently the 10/3 favourite (9/2 on the exchange) and has been pretty much favourite for this race through the season so far. Freely available at 25/1 and bigger in the summer at one point, he slowly eroded in price after he demolished rivals in a maiden hurdle at Tipperary in the early summer. Previously expected to be a top juvenile last season, he only made it to the track once in the Triumph finishing a fair 6th in a hot race. He was supposed to be out much earlier this season but with meeting a setback early in the season, we saw him last week at Punchestown for the first time in the Moscow Flyer where he was keen throughout and jumped appalling at times having been heavily restrained by his jockey throughout. It was more of his jockey trying to get him from A to B without trying to overrace rather than a poor jumping technique, so it’s hoped a more prominent ride might help him in the Supreme with his jumping without setting him alight. He’s going to be the talk of the town in the preview shows leading up to the festival but this lad clearly has top class ability based on his run at Punchestown given the difficulties he encountered and his run behind the superstar Sir Gino in France in his 3 year old days. The big issue with me is that he had a setback early in the season and that’s never a positive for any horse, and has only had one run in the jumps season proper going into Cheltenham - although that didn’t stop Mystical Power going close.

Romeo Coolio - Gordon Elliott - Age: 6

2nd in the Champion Bumper last season, Romeo Coolio has always been highly thought of by his trainer Gordon Elliott (bought for over 400k after his point to point win) and goes into the Supreme with a leading chance despite a blip in the Royal Bond back in early December. Seen 3 times over hurdles this season, he won his opening maiden hurdle well at Down Royal before the aforementioned blip at Fairyhouse where he finished 2nd to the 138 rated Tounsivator. Perhaps he didn’t get the run of the race that day, whilst the winner knew how to race and win, and is better horse ridden much more prominently. A comfortable winner in his next race at Leopardstown in the grade 1 novice hurdle over 2 miles. Although it was hard to see what happened due to the fog that day, he beat his stablemate Bleu De Vassy by 9 lengths who is a solid yardstick rated 139. He ticks all the boxes as a solid type for this race given he holds the best timefigure currently for a novice hurdler, jumps well and is trained by the right man. The only worry would be that he might possess a soft centre when in the heat of a battle as he’s been worried out of a couple of races including in the Champion Bumper last season. Very solid claims.

Kaid D’Authie - Willie Mullins - Age: 5

Winner of a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas beating a smart type in Koktail Divin after a monumental drift, this lad went into plenty of people’s notebooks for both this race and the Turners after that impressive all the way victory. His owner JP McManus holds other chances in both races so it will be interesting to see where Kaid D’Authie turns up. The DRF next month is likely to tell us more about the claims of this lad and a couple other contenders below. Looks a real galloping type who could spring a surprise in either race assuming he improves as expected in his next run. An exciting type for fences whatever happens.

Kopek Des Bordes - Willie Mullins - Age: 5

Another horse similar to Kaid D’Authie who will compete in the 2 mile novice hurdle at the DRF, which will tell us where he is in the pecking order at Closutton. An impressive Fairyhouse bumper winner last season - although nothing else has really come out from that bumper - he won his maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas where he looked a work in progress being keen throughout and after a couple of early mistakes, his jumping kind of fell to pieces. He clearly has a huge engine and looks a proper galloping type who will excel over fences in the future. I’d argue that Paul Townend will want to split this lad and Salvator Mundi up so he can ride both, and that would suggest Kopek Des Bordes would head to the Turners whatever his performance at the DRF.

Workahead - Henry De Bromhead - Age: 7

Another winner of a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, he is seemingly being sent straight to the Supreme after just 2 runs this season. 2nd to Jasmin De Vaux at Navan in early December in his opening maiden hurdle, he looks a horse with plenty of stamina and would be an interesting runner given connections. I think he’ll possibly be suited to much further in the future (half brother to Bronn) but I expect him to run a solid race especially as he beat the talented William Munny by 7 lengths with Redemption Day and Jacob’s Ladder in behind at Leopardstown which suggests he is an above average novice. He is also a 7 year old which would be a negative against younger, speedier types. Expect him to be coming home strong and an each way alternative for many Irish punters.

Kiss Will - Willie Mullins - Age: 5

One race. One win. Trained by Willie Mullins. It’s hard to knock these types out of contention at the moment until you see the vibes coming from the yard. A 13 length winner at Fairyhouse last week making all to destroy his other rivals, I’d expect to see him in the listed novice hurdle at Punchestown next month (won by Tullyhill last season) as he holds no entries for the DRF next month. You can also say the same for another couple of contenders in Funiculi Funicula and Kappa Jy Pyke- both are in consideration currently although I would be surprised if either were to win and are more long term projects. The same goes for Kiss Will.

The New Lion - Dan Skelton - Age: 6

Likely to be running in the Turners come March, however connections have mentioned they may strongly consider the Supreme if the ground is bottomless. Hugely talented, but I would think they will stick to the long term plan of the Turners over 2m5f.

Kel Histoire - Willie Mullins - Age: 5

Beaten by Salvator Mundi in the Moscow Flyer, and connections might feel the need to step him up in trip given the way he stayed on at Punchestown. However Mark Walsh and JP will want to split him up with Kaid D’Authie between this race and the Turners so expect him to turn up and run his race in either given he ran a very creditable race in the Moscow Flyer and looks like he has a nice blend of speed and stamina that might be suited to the Supreme on a more galloping track at Cheltenham than the inner track at Punchestown. Place claims.

William Munny - Barry Connell - Age: 7

Well touted for the Supreme since last spring after an impressive win in a bumper at Naas back in February, he ran a solid enough race in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown a few weeks after finishing 3rd. Not seen until Leopardstown at Christmas where he was duly stuffed by the previously mentioned Workahead by 7 lengths, he is likely to take in another maiden hurdle (entered Saturday) before an attempt at the Supreme (his only entry). I imagined his trainer Barry Connell, no stranger to hyperbole when it comes to his horses, wanted to get him out before Christmas and this wasn’t his original plan to go straight to Cheltenham on the back of 2 maiden hurdles. Talented horse with an each way shout.

You Oughta Know - Willie Mullins - Age: 7

Talented bumper performer who has won his maiden hurdle and is set to compete in the 2 mile grade 1 event at the DRF. If he runs well he could take in this race or the Turners, and could outrun his odds on the day.

Regents Stroll - Paul Nicholls - Age: 6

Currently priced at 50/1, I would suggest he is probably the biggest priced horse who might have a decent shout of filling the frame alongside William Munny - assuming he turns up in the opener for connections. A huge framed animal, he clearly possesses a great deal of ability based on his Newbury win back in November where he slammed through a hurdle and kept galloping. Most horses would of faded based on that error but he was still able to keep galloping without a bother on him. Bombed out when 5/4f in the Challow, he was desperately keen that day and connections probably got their tactics wrong holding him up. If he was able to get a confidence boosting win over hurdles and was aimed at this race, I think he has the ability to outrun his odds at 50/1 without winning. Hugely talented who should go on to become a graded chaser in the future.

Conclusion:

This race clearly revolves around Willie Mullins (what’s new?) and his gelding Salvator Mundi is expected to be the talk of the town at preview nights around the country in the UK and Ireland. Despite his obvious flaws in the Moscow Flyer where he was keen and jumped badly at times, that was through design rather than the horses jumping ability. Based on his finishing effort, he clearly possesses a huge amount of ability and his form with Sir Gino in France also suggests he’s a 150+ animal in time. If he’s ridden more positively, I think that will certainly help his jumping and Paul Townend will of learnt a great deal after Punchestown too. On ability he looks the obvious winner but 10/3 is about right and you might get 6/1 plus on the day as he will likely be heavily boosted by bookmakers looking to take him on (I think).

I respect Salvator Mundi hugely but I have had ROMEO COOLIO on my mind for the Supreme for the last few weeks and I think he is the most solid horse in the field at the time of writing. A solid jumper, he travels well and clearly possesses the cruising speed you need for this race, and is trained by Gordon Elliott. 3 ticks already, whilst he also has achieved the highest speed figure rating out of the novice hurdlers at present which also gives more credence. The only negative that nags away in my head is his defeat in both the Champion Bumper and the Royal Bond where he was worried out of the race late on and perhaps is a little bit soft in the finish. I’m able to give him the benefit of the doubt, and he looks to be full of class whilst also will be ridden prominently through the race which I like too. When the boiling point comes in the race we can see if he can really take a battle in his stride. Likely to sidestep the Dublin Racing Festival, he will go straight to Cheltenham and appeals as the most solid option at 6/1 right now.

Kopek Des Bordes and Kaid D’Authie could easily come out the pack at the DRF and cement themselves as strong contenders for the Supreme however, and the winner of the 2 mile grade 1 at Leopardstown cannot be ignored. Both horses could be anything and they look hugely talented. Ignore either at your peril.

Looking down the betting both William Munny and Regents Stroll are still huge prices and both are talented but it will take a huge leap of faith to think they can win this given their preparations. Whilst we haven’t even mentioned grade 1 bumper winner Redemption Day who bombed out badly at Leopardstown over Christmas on his first hurdling start and might be one for the flat in the summer if he can’t bounce back in the coming weeks.

The next 2 to 3 weeks could produce a big shake up in the Supreme market, however based on ability at the time of writing I’d be seeing Romeo Coolio as the most solid option with the dangerous Salvator Mundi lurking as a horse you just cannot write off despite the obvious flaws in his Punchestown win.

Bets:

Romeo Coolio - 1pt win @ 6/1