Antepost: Supreme Novices Hurdle

Everyone wants to start the festival with a winner, and there's no better feeling than banging in a long term antepost winner of the Supreme. This years race looks a real head scratcher at the moment as I was fully expecting the strong favourite Ballyburn to end up in this race as mentioned in the Baring Bingham preview a couple of weeks ago. A winner at Punchestown has confused things now for many punters, so let's take a look.

1:30 Cheltenham - 2m1/2f - Supreme Novices Hurdle

Ballyburn - 5/4

It looked set that Ballyburn would be a Supreme winner in waiting before Tullyhill spanked his rivals in a listed hurdle at Punchestown a few days ago. Perhaps we were all jumping to conclusions too early, as reading between the lines, the Mullins camp won't make up their mind until 9:30am on the Sunday before Cheltenham. Reading interviews with the trainer and his associates, they talk about Ballyburn being 'more of a stayer' and having a 'sixth gear', and also he will be a horse going up in trip in the future. I'm not so confident he will run in this now. If he does; he should win. Simple.

Tullyhill - 4/1

Impressive winner at Punchestown over the weekend, he has shaken up the Supreme market in the last few days. He's definitely a big player based on his bumper form, however despite being one of Willie Mullins leading hopes for novice hurdles this season, he disappointed getting beat at 1/8 in his opening maiden hurdle. Watching his win at Punchestown, it's clear he's improved on his jumping and looks set to run a big race in the Supreme no matter who turns up. He won't get a freebie out in front like he did at Punchestown however, and looks a little short in the betting at the moment. Good chance nonetheless.

Mystical Power - 6/1

Winner of the Moscow Flyer, and called 'very sharp' by his trainer Willie Mullins, I can only assume he runs here. I think he's clearly got a huge engine but as mentioned in the Baring Bingham preview, I don't think he's a Cheltenham horse as we currently speak. He's clearly still a work in progress, and is quite a keen horse who might get left behind in the jumping department going at the fast pace which the Supreme usually provides. Although he warmed to the task jumping wise in the Moscow Flyer, Mark Walsh (jockey) won't be able to sit off his opponents here and come late with an easy run like in January. I think he might be one for Aintree/Punchestown at the end of the season as his best hope of landing a Grade 1.

Firefox - 7/1

Firefox already has the scalp of the strong favourite Ballyburn this season, having beaten him in a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse. I think it's safe to say that Ballyburn has improved considerably since then, and whilst Firefox hasn't regressed - he's disappointed. Going back to Fairyhouse, Firefox was able to dictate from the front and skipped away from Ballyburn. I wouldn't take that literally as 90% of Willie Mullins horses have come on from their first run considerably, but Firefox still was able to show a high level of ability there. His disappointment came in the Lawlors of Naas where he jumped noticeably well but never landed a blow on the run in. There seemed to be excuses that day given the form of the trainer, and the trainer has confirmed he came back lame. Assuming he's 100%, and is fit and firing come the day, I think he'll run a big race in the opener. The only issue is whether he is readily primed, as if he's missed any major work in the run up to the festival, that would be a huge negative. Each way chance.

Jeriko Du Reponet - 9/1

The one time Supreme favourite is probably now the forgotten horse having disappointed many punters in his win at Doncaster a few weeks ago. He was the outright 4/1 favourite at one point after 2 wins in below average novice hurdles at Newbury where he barely came off the bridle. He was made to work at Doncaster in a Grade 2 against Lump Sum and Fiercely Proud and prevailed by just under 2 lengths going away. It was the first time he was made to battle off the bridle and that form will be put to the test in the Dovecote at Kempton this weekend when both of those horses above run. Rated 132 by the handicapper, that puts him some way off the other main protagonists in the Supreme. He's a work in progress and is learning all the time, and a run where he hits the money will be a great run for connections. Next year he looks a chaser to follow.

Slade Steel - 14/1

His participation probably relies on Ballyburn in which his race he participates in, but I hope he goes the Baring Bingham regardless. 2nd in the 2 mile novice hurdle behind Ballyburn at the DRF, he didn't possess the tactical speed needed when the taps were turned on by the favourite. However he stayed onto the line well that day and would suit the Ballymore. If he does run here, I expect him to be a solid place bet as he'll enjoy the fast tempo of the race and come home strong.

Tellherthename - 16/1

Has shortened in the betting in the last couple of weeks but probably lacks the class of the horses above. Good ground seems to be a requirement for him, and he won't get an uncontested lead either. Short enough price but each way backers have clearly had him in their sights recently.

Asian Master / Mistergif - 33/1

I'm assuming both horses will be running and I expect Willie Mullins to get one of these to run above their odds without winning. Asian Master will have an amateur on board who is unable to claim the 7lb allowance he gets which tempers enthusiasm but he has a decent level of form without being Grade 1. Whilst Mistergif was impressive in his maiden hurdle and is battled hardened from running on the flat. I think one of them will run well as Willie tends to get an unknown horse to run above themselves.

King of Kingsfield - 25/1

I assume King of Kingsfield is likely to head to the County Hurdle but despite his price, he's no mug. It might rest on the weather forecast with regard to his participation in either race as he needs genuine good ground to be at his best.

Conclusion:

As the Baring Bingham, Ballyburn holds the aces here. He's a short price favourite in either race and should win either barring falls. I really like Tullyhill and his performance at Punchestown caught the eye. He is likely to improve again in March, but won't get an uncontested lead this time. He is also terribly short right now at 4/1. Mystical Power also caught the eye at Punchestown in the Moscow Flyer and has tons of ability. He will also improve after his run in January for sure, but I think he'll be a horse for next year and might need to mature a little further before being a Grade 1 horse despite having the clear potential to be one.

One horse who won't lack maturity, and I would be willing to give another chance to after disappointing in the Lawlors of Naas is FIREFOX. Despite his crash in odds over the recent weeks, he still retains a little value in the each way market compared to Tullyhill and Mystical Power, and holds decent claims of filling the frame assuming he's A1 and hasn't missed any major work in his preparation for the Supreme.

Although the form cannot be taken too literally, his beating of Ballyburn at Fairyhouse shows he holds top class ability and should put the Naas run behind him. The fact that he'll have Jack Kennedy on board too is a major positive, and he'll likely be ridden handy. He looks robust enough for the Supreme compared to a couple who are probably horses for next year (Mystical Power, Jeriko Du Reponet and to an extent Tullyhill). He also seems an astute jumper of hurdles which he shown at Naas. The annoying thing is having to take 7/1, when he was a bigger price only a couple of weeks ago. Perhaps you'll get bigger on the day if Ballyburn turns up, but for now as every race has to be previewed the 7/1 will have to do.

Bets:

Firefox - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB (Coral)

Already Advised:

Embassy Gardens - 1pt win @ 5/2 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Broadway Boy - 1.5pts ew @ 10/1 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB - Turners Novice Chase (Advised 18/02/2024)

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)