Antepost: Stayers Hurdle Preview

I can't say I have a superb record in the Stayers Hurdle over the years, and it's a head scratcher again this year. It's shaping up to be a decent renewal especially if 3 of the main protagonists run (Theleme, Teahupoo, Irish Point) and there is also a decent supporting cast to go alongside those. As I say my record in the Stayers Hurdle hasn't been great, with my long term fancies often being turned over. Teahupoo (2023), Supasundae (2018), Unowhatimeanharry (2017) are 3 horses I was heavy into leading up to their races and all 3 were beat. Thyme Hill being beaten in 2022 was another bad defeat, whilst his injury in the 2021 event was a huge blow too. It's not a great start to the blog by saying I have an atrocious record in this race from a long term betting view, but hopefully this year there might be a change in fortunes.

Stayers Hurdle - 3m - Thursday 14th March 2024

Teahupoo - 4/1

The rightful favourite in my book, and I would say it's a positive that he will go to this race as a fresh horse. Last seen winning his 2nd Hattons Grace at Fairyhouse beating Impaire Et Passe comfortably, he was an unlucky 3rd last season in this race. It probably wasn't Davy Russell's finest moment, and the jockey admitted that himself, and he showed he gets the trip well staying into the line all the way. He was just touched off by a dour stayer in Sire Du Berlais after a solid pace was dictated by Flooring Porter throughout and met slight interference on the run in, that didn't help his cause. He will run to his mark of 160+, and long term readers will remember he was a long term fancy in October where he was put up at 12/1 on this site for this said race. At 4/1 now he's a little short from an antepost punt given the October blog, but is the rightful favourite and has a cracking chance of going 2 places better this year.

Theleme - 4/1

I'm not going to proclaim that I know anything about this gelding, who is trained in France. He has Grade 1 winning form in France so must be a fairly high level animal, and has beaten the impressive Kauto Star Novice Chase winner Il Est Francais in a Grade 3 hurdle last March. Admittedly that gelding probably didn't run his race that day, but Theleme's French form means you have to sit up and take notice. However just because you are a graded horse in France doesn't mean you are a true graded performer when you cross the channel into the UK, and taking 4/1 for a horse who will encounter likely better ground, and Prestbury Park itself with its undulations, is suicidal right now. I think he's one to assess on the day to see whether he is strong in the betting. I'll pass on him at his price of 4/1, and let the experts serve him up in the next few weeks - but no doubt he can win it.

Irish Point - 6/1

I'm hopeful they make the decision to run Irish Point here, and swerve the Aintree Hurdle as his main target given connections have Bob OLinger for that race too. A winner of the 3 mile Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas, admittedly that was off a crawl of a pace. However stamina doesn't hugely concern me here unless it's a blistering pace where the whole race falls apart, and having form over 2 miles is a huge positive here. The nagging doubt would be whether connections decide to run here given they have Teahupoo. Head scratcher. If he runs, he has a huge chance and has the right profile for this race.

Impaire Et Passe - 8/1

One of the most impressive winners of a novice hurdle at the Festival last year, but he's completely underwhelmed everyone this year after being beaten twice comfortably. It's probably harsh to say he's underwhelming given he's run 2 consistent 2nd places in Grade 1's behind 2 established high class performers in Teahupoo and State Man, but the way he destroyed Gaelic Warrior, Good Land and Champ Kiely suggested he was a little bit special. Gaelic Warrior definitely is at his best right handed however, so maybe he was slightly flattered by his Ballymore win looking at the overall picture. He does still look a high class animal, however he's been keen and buzzy throughout his races this season and doesn't look like he wants 3 miles on the new course at Cheltenham at this stage of his career. Not for me right now and will probably run in the Champion Hurdle before embarking on a novice chasing campaign next season.

Crambo - 9/1

A blog favourite and he's not without a chance here given his current trajectory of improvement this season. 20/1 before his win in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December, he's now priced at 9/1 and that's a little short given his trainer hasn't trained a winner at the Festival, and his form is a little suspect at present if you go through it with a fine tooth comb. A short head verdict over the 11 year old Paisley Park at Ascot, whilst his previous runs this season was a fast finishing 3rd in the lucrative Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock off 139 where he was clearly given too much to do, and a win in a fairly average handicap hurdle at Aintree to start the season off. Clearly open to more improvement, if he was a bigger price he'd be the each way selection however 9/1 is a little skinny and I'd be looking for 14s+ if the 3 main protagonists ran. I'm not sure I trust his trainer at the top level either and whether his trainer can prepare him without a prep run is up for debate.

Sir Gerhard - 14/1

Coming out of the racecourse on the Wednesday of the 2022 Festival, you'd be hard pressed to find someone who didn't think Sir Gerhard was a Champion Hurdle, or Arkle/Turners horse in the upcoming season after his impressive Ballymore win. Last season didn't go to plan for the Jeremy bred gelding, where he was only seen once over fences before his run in the RSA. He didn't look a natural over fences and further disappointed at other spring festivals. Falling on his first outing of the season at Naas over 2 miles over fences in November, he was switched back to hurdles winning a conditions hurdle at Punchestown on New Years Day. There has to be a massive question mark over his stamina especially if he doesn't settle (keen and free in the past), and strikes me as another horse who probably doesn't want this test right now either. He looks a middle distance horse to my eye and his breeding would suggest 3 miles is hopeful rather than certain despite his 3 mile point to point win.

Sire Du Berlais - 20/1

Last years winner, who hasn't been seen since his 3rd at the Punchestown Festival where went down valiantly in his attempt to plunge all 3 of the 3 mile staying hurdles at the spring festivals (Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown). A non-runner when confirmed to run in the Lismullen Hurdle in November, he hasn't been entered since anywhere and given he improves with racing - I can't see him winning this again at the age of 12. He could have a shout of finishing in the first 4, if there is a strong pace - assuming he's fit and firing - but he wouldn't be on my mind at all despite his legendary status at the Festival.

Flooring Porter - 20/1

A dual winner of this race, he's been running over fences this season and although connections probably hoped for more 1s by his name, he's done well given his advancing years. A winner of a beginners chase at Cheltenham in October, he's ran creditably twice since despite his obvious flaws (hung badly left at Punchestown). I hope connections persevere over fences as he would suit the test of the Brown Advisory on the old course, but he may be rerouted here. His participation would be music to the ears of connections such as Noble Yeats, Home By The Lee and Paisley Park, as he would ensure a solid gallop. Probably has a place chance at best, but older horses returning to this race have a good record in recent years.

Paisley Park - 25/1

Looking better than ever, he's run 2 incredible races in defeat this season. The fact that he's 12 years old and still running to an incredibly high level is brilliant to see, but it does suggest that the British staying division over hurdles is average enough. He is another one who will want a strong pace, however unless the race falls apart and the main protagonists don't run their race, he is well up against it.

Blazing Khal - 25/1

Disappointed last season when one of the favourites in this race, he's another one who's not been seen this season either. Whether that's by design I'm not sure, however he might follow the same path as last season where he won the Boyne Hurdle before a tilt at the Stayers. Last season he suffered a couple of setbacks in the run up to his Boyne Hurdle win, and if everything has gone smoothly and the Boyne/Stayers path is by design, he could be a dark horse at a big price especially as he ran a decent race in 6th given his preparation. The vibes will be important for him, however he's not in my thinking right now.

Noble Yeats - 33/1

He's been some horse for connections in recent years winning the Grand National as a novice, and then running some creditable races last year including a 4th place in the Gold Cup and a fine 4th in his attempt to win the Grand National back to back. Not entered over fences at the Cheltenham Festival, it genuinely wouldn't surprise me if he runs well in the Stayers if there is a strong pace and could be a dark horse for the places at 33/1. It would rely on something making the race a stamina test and there are question marks over that right now however. Soft ground would help him too.

Ahoy Senor - 40/1

I hope they persevere with fences for Ahoy Senor, but he looks in no man's land after 2 non events this year over fences, pulling up twice. He might be suited better to hurdles given his jumping deficiencies, but he will need to show some spark in his next outing.

Dashel Drasher - 40/1

Last years 2nd, he ran a cracker behind Sire Du Berlais with Teahupoo back in 3rd (Stewards reversed placings). He's already won the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury beating Paisley Park, before finishing a fine 3rd at Ascot in the Long Walk. He's better left handed, and isn't a 40/1 shot given he's still shown a good level of form. I can't see him winning however.

Home By The Lee - 40/1

Another big price, he is another one who needs a strong pace and will be suited to Flooring Porter running here. It was horrible to watch Home By The Lee make the running in the 3 mile Christmas Hurdle as he doesn't do anything Infront and will be more suited by this test. I think he's probably overpriced here, and I'll be looking to see if you can get the same price with more places on the day. He ran a decent race last year, where he a made a shuddering error and came home well enough. On the each way shortlist.

Asterion Forlonge - 50/1

Everyone's favourite horse. I actually find him slightly interesting for a place only bet on the day, especially if there isn't any pace. Well beaten by Irish Point at Christmas, he still ran ok without staying after switching back to hurdles from fences and if he's a double digit price on the day to place with 5 places on offer I'll snap it up in the hope he is rode to pick up the pieces. He isn't a 3 mile dour stayer by any means but he has a little bit of class and can run creditably without threatening.

Conclusion

The race revolves around the 3 runners at the top of the market in Teahupoo, Theleme and Irish Point. However it also revolves around the conditions of the race with ground and pace a huge factor here. If Flooring Porter isn't rerouted from fences back to hurdles, to partake in this race, then I can't see what will make the running providing a true test of stamina which plenty will need. Dashel Drasher isn't normally a pacesetter despite his front running tendencies, and it might rely on something taking the race by the scruff.

There isn't much value in the top of the market with all 3 priced at around 7/2 to 4/1 with the NRNB concession. Teahupoo was better priced at the 12/1 on offer in the October blog, however that doesn't help anyone now. He holds a favourites chance in my book.

I can't back the French raider Theleme at 4/1, given I know nothing about his profile bar the form on paper which looks strong in France, but he looks skinny with question marks about any French raider at the Cheltenham Festival.

Although he isn't a confirmed runner, and connections have mentioned the Aintree Hurdle as his spring target, my preference would be for IRISH POINT at this stage. There may be question marks over his stamina, unlike his stablemate Teahupoo, however I believe he is probably the best of these 3 in terms of class and is worth taking a punt on at 6/1. The fact that he can prove his class over a shorter trip like 2 miles this season at Down Royal also is a huge positive. Jack Kennedy will have a big decision to make it both run, however I expect him to side with Teahupoo who has confirmed his stamina over this trip at Prestbury Park.

There are a number of each way plays in this race for any punters who like taking a swing on a big price especially if Flooring Porter is rerouted, and don't discount Home By The Lee, Noble Yeats or Dashel Drasher staying on strongly if that is the case. Don't discount Flooring Porter himself after an in-out season last year in the run up to the Festival. Crambo is another horse who is capable of being in the mix of things at the end given he's got an obvious blend of speed and stamina, however his trainer needs to prove he can train a Grade 1 winner at the Festival, and the lack of a prep run may be a negative for a horse who has only ran once at the top level. However I believe all of the aforementioned runners will struggle to win against the front 3 in the market.

If you are looking for a potential dark horse, Blazing Khal could be a springer in the pack. If he's been fit and firing, and suffered no setbacks through the summer onwards, then perhaps connections might use the Boyne Hurdle as a good preparation again for the Stayers. He ran a credible race in 6th off an awful preparation last year. Keep an ear out for any information about this gelding.

Bets:

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365)

Already Advised:

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)