Antepost: National Hunt Chase

I have a feeling the National Hunt Chase might be on borrowed time even with the tradition and history it brings to the festival. The long distance novice chase has been running at the festival for over 110 years now, but year by year in the last decade or so it's only attracting a handful of runners with the race conditions changing after a bloodbath running a few years ago. The horses just aren't there anymore for this type of race, and stables don't want to bottom a lot of their top athletes over this trip. It has had a habit of being a hindrance to many horses career over the years, although there are a number of exceptions to that rule. I think it's on borrowed time and doesn't help the Brown Advisory's field size either. The purists won't be happy that such a traditional and historic race like this will be pulled, but it's only creating problems. Saying that, the whole festival needs looking at to create better competition amongst novice chasers.

5:30 Cheltenham - 3m6f - National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders Only)

Embassy Gardens - 5/2

Definitelt the rightful favourite after 2 impressive displays over fences this season. He's looked a natural chaser and looks a different horse to last year where he disappointed connections several times in his novice hurdle campaign. Pulled up in the Albert Bartlett when going off 8/1, he sort of became a forgotten horse going into this season but has surprised a few to be a strong favourite for the National Hunt Chase. He's looked a real natural and has jumped from fence to fence to easily win his 2 novice chases including a Grade 3 at Naas last month. He has a strong chance.

Corbetts Cross - 7/2

For all Embassy Gardens has looked a real natural, the same can't be said about Corbetts Cross. That's probably a little harsh on Emmet Mullins' gelding but he isn't the most natural of jumpers and that's been evident in all his novice chases this season. This horse is a little bit of an enigma given his orthodox background. Last season he beat the top class Found a Fifty over 2 miles, before running out in the Albert Bartlett when 9/4 favourite. This season he's been beaten over fences twice, before a strange fall in his last race at Fairyhouse where he jumped slightly left into the path of another horse and hit the deck. He's likely to run with Derek O'Connor on board, and given his ability he has a proper chance. It's whether things will fall right for him on the day, where he's likely to be hunted out the back and allowed daylight and space to jump fence to fence. I don't think he's particularly crying out for this trip, and if it did turn into a stamina test, I'm unsure whether he'll be the strongest in the finish. Has obvious top class ability but there are definitely a few question marks.

Salvador Ziggy - 5/1

Salvador Ziggy has been laid out for this race by his trainer Gordon Ellliott for many months now. Starting his novice chase campaign in the summer, he has 5 chase starts to his name including a disappointing run in the American Grand National where he pulled up. The talk on the street was that he didn't take to the lasix which was administered, and that is probably a good enough excuse. He looks a solid enough each way bet for punters at the moment given he's already shown the ability to jump in a big field long distance handicap chase when he finished 2nd in the Kerry National back in September. Solid each way chance although the price is gone now.

Broadway Boy - 10/1

Been a revelation of fences although he's won a few small field chases getting an easy enough lead. The handicap win at Cheltenham where he beat Threeunderthrufive and Protektorat reads fairly well however, given they've both been running well since. I think he'll probably run in the Brown Advisory with Sam Twiston-Davies on board, especially as there is a lack of good amateurs to sway the trainers mind for this race. If he does run in this race, I think he'd have a cracking chance as he jumps, gallops and stays so well.

Flooring Porter - 11/1

Given his age and the fact he's won two Stayers Hurdle, whilst competing in another, he's done well over fences this season. I always worry about horses who've spent too long over hurdles going chasing, but he's a clean enough jumper. Won at Cheltenham first time out this season and despite fluffing his lines at Punchestown (can't go right handed), he ran well enough on soft ground at Leopardstown over Christmas in a Grade 1 finishing a never threatening 3rd. I think he would suit this race, although his trainer seemingly has one eye on the Stayers Hurdle too (holds an entry). If he does run, I think he will run a huge race.

Three Card Brag - 11/1

Been very disappointing since going into the 22/23 season with a lot of promise. He disappointed over hurdles despite finishing 5th in the Albert Bartlett, after an impressive opening showing in a novice hurdle slamming Sandor Clegane by half a dozen lengths. He's only run twice over fences starting with a decent 2nd in a hot beginners chase which included Corbetts Cross and Monty's Star over 2m5. That was a decent start but he blotted his copybook being well beaten by Monty's Star at Punchestown on New Year's Eve. Gordon Elliott's horses were running well below par that day, so he has an excuse. He has the choice of running here, the Brown Advisory or going for a beginners chase en route to the Irish Grand National. No idea which race they'll go for and I don't particularly fancy him either.

Nick Rockett - 12/1

It looks like Nick Rockett is another one who'll avoid this race, and probably avoid Cheltenham altogether given Willie Mullins remarks on him last week. I had him on my mind for this race since his defeat to to Corbetts Cross at Fairyhouse. Beaten in the Ten Up at Navan last time out by American Mike, I thought he ran well enough to secure his place in this race as he's a safe jumper who relaxes and will get the trip well. It looks like Embassy Gardens is the number one choice for Closutton, but if Nick Rockett does run here I think he'll give the favourite a run for his money. Very unlikely to run.

Kilbeg King - 14/1

Likely to take his chance according to his trainer Anthony Honeyball after a solid run in the Reynoldstown at the weekend. He belted enough fences but still had the ability to finish 2nd, and is gradually improving in his novice chase campaign. He's probably a few pounds off the top 2 in the betting in ability so would need those to underperform. Each way chance.

Favori De Champdou - 20/1

He was a long term pick back in November for this race on this website but looks like he needs to go right handed given his atrocious form going the other way round. Well beaten in the Ten Up, he would be better suited to the Irish Grand National.

Henry's Friend - 20/1

Winner of the aforementioned Reynoldstown beating Kilbeg King, he looks a decent chaser who'd probably suit this race. Like Kilbeg King, he's probably a few pounds shy off the main protagonists but would run well if he took his chance.

Minella Cocooner - 20/1

Another one who fluffed his lines in the Ten Up at Navan, he might go to a handicap if given a favourable rating. Willie Mullins has mentioned him staying at home, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him chucked in this race or the Brown Advisory assuming he doesn't get that favourable handicap mark.

Apple Away - 33/1

Another one who ran in the Reynoldstown at Ascot over the weekend finishing 3rd. She's not the biggest chaser you'll ever see and she isn't the cleanest of jumpers. To my eye she would suit this race better than at handicap at this stage of his career, and should go here if they can attract a decent amateur to ride her. She's not got the ability of a few in this race but I think she'd outrun her odds of 33/1 if she did turn up. She's a tough mare who'll continue to pay her way whatever happens.

Conclusion:

The front 2 in the market probably have the best chance in this race and the preference would be for EMBASSY GARDENS right now at 5/2. This is the preferred choice as my other selection is unlikely to run. More on that in a minute. With regards to Embassy Gardens, he looks the pick based on his jumping this year which has been safe and slick. He has also shown the ability to travel well throughout his race and looks a much stronger and mature horse to the one who pulled up in the Albert Bartlett last season. He has a cracking chance although 5/2 would be skinny enough.

The likelihood is that BROADWAY BOY will turn up in the Brown Advisory as it looks an ample opportunity for him given the likely small field and with plenty of question marks around the favourites in the betting. However if he does turn up, I suggest a good each way bet on him especially as this race is likely to fall apart in terms of runners and he's a class above the other British contenders in this race. A solid lepper who will test the frailties of other rivals jumping, he will stay this distance well and could get a freebie out on the front end. The only question mark would be who would be booked to ride as good amateur riders are thin on the ground. If Nigel Twiston-Davies runner was to turn up, he must have a serious chance. However as mentioned the likelihood is that he will go to the Brown Advisory with the stable jockey on his back.

Other contenders include Corbetts Cross who is a shaky jumper and has his own way of getting from A to B. Derek O'Connor will be on board and will likely sit off the pace and try to warm his jumping up before being delivered late. If he gets round, he should go close. A proper stamina test would also be a worry for him mind. Salvador Ziggy would appreciate better ground, and will be coming off a long break. His value has contracted big time and looks skinny enough at 5/1 despite having plenty of positives to his profile. As for the other British contenders who all competed in the Reynoldstown at Ascot over the weekend, they all look 140ish rated horses who if getting round will likely be playing for the places.

The sensible bet at this stage is Embassy Gardens, with a big shout to Broadway Boy, who should only be back non-runner-no-bet due to his questionable participation.

Bets:

Embassy Gardens - 1pt win @ 5/2 NRNB (Boylesports)

Broadway Boy - 1.5pts ew @ 10/1 NRNB (Skybet)

Already Advised:

Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB - Turners Novice Chase (Advised 18/02/2024)

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)