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Plenty of deadwood in this race as well but there are plenty of old heroes too. This will be a compressed handicap as I can see plenty of the horses at the top of the weights running, so there won't be much chance of us getting a big weight range thus meaning horses at the top of the weights won't be giving too much away to the bottom weighted runners.
5:30 Cheltenham - 3m2f - Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)
Inothewayurthinkin - OR145 - 9/2
The McManus team must of been made up with his rating of 145 as he gets in. Whether they are happy with top weight is another matter, but he shouldn't giving lumps of weight away with it likely to be a compressed handicap. He's been catching the eye since his first run of the season over 2 miles in his novice chases, and although he was well beat in a handicap at the DRF, the experience will of done him the world of good. He's also trained by the master Gavin Cromwell who's a dangerous man in handicaps.
Trelawne - OR144 - 25/1
Kim Bailey had originally confirmed Trelawne will head for the Ultima but has mentioned that isn't set in stone now. I wonder if he might be rerouted here as he has Chianti Classico for the Ultima albeit different owners. He would be a decent each way shout for this at his current odds of 25/1, but he needs soft ground. I also wonder if they'll win him at Uttoxeter on Midlands National day in the novice handicap where you're generally guaranteed soft ground.
Perceval Legallois - OR144 - 6/1
Whilst JP McManus must of been made up to sneak the current favourite Inothewayurthinkin in at the top of the weights, he's probably a little miffed that Perceval Legallois has been hit with a 9lb rise on his Irish mark for this race. He was running a big race in the 2m5f handicap chase at the DRF before falling off a mark of 130 (with conditional claim) however it's not guaranteed he would of won given he's a bit of a weak finisher and Heart Wood was so good. I feel this lad is talented but needs things to go his way and he is probably better beating horses on the bridle rather than getting into a battle. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Irish National after the UK handicapper smashed him with 144.
Fakir D'alene - OR144 - 33/1
Not the worst price in the world especially as you'd give him a chance on his Troytown run this season where he was 3rd to Coko Beach. 4th in this race in 2022, he was off for 500 days and returns off the same mark. At a big price he could run well but he blows hot and cold like many in the field.
Good Time Jonny - OR142 - 8/1
A talking horse as he was a long time favourite for this race. Winner of the Pertemps last year he has his difficulties over fences, and he's been clobbered with a 10lb rise on his Irish mark over fences. However Tony Martin is or was a dangerous man at this festival and you wouldn't be half surprised if those difficulties was put behind him at the festival. He's a dangerous lurker, and I wouldn't be shocked if he won.
Cloudy Glen - OR142 - 33/1
I mentioned him in the Ultima as a horse who's had an uninterrupted season this time around and might be a big price lurker for the places if he gets genuine good ground.
Angels Dawn - OR142 - 10/1
Last years winner beating Stumptown by a neck, which is decent form, she's now 11lb higher. I'm not sure that will stop her given her run in the Thyestes at Gowran finishing 3rd. She is set to come back and she has her chance of regaining her crown.
Amirite - OR142 - 18/1
I read this lads target was the Ultima but he slots into this race nicely and the ground could have a big say. If it's going to dry out sufficiently I could see him coming into this race especially if it's a dry week and the ground will be at its softest on the Tuesday. Not the strongest of finishers, and needs headgear to my eye.
Life In The Park - OR139 - 20/1
As mentioned in the Plate preview I think this lad has a handicap in him but like his stablemate above he has to have decent ground. If he gets it, he comes into consideration.
Rapper - OR138 - 20/1
He's a bit of a monkey and blows hot and cold, but Rapper ran a decent race last time out albeit the form is shaky enough. Went off 14/1 in this last year and he pulled up, but comes into this 4lb lower. Has form at the course but is inconsistent enough to trust.
City Chief - OR138 - 33/1
I'm only guessing that City Chief's main target will be the Scottish Grand National but he could take this in as a prep race for that as long as the ground is fairly decent. He's been disappointing this year given he's been single digits for every race, but he hasn't got his ground. If he gets better ground he could figure at a big price.
Cool Survivor - OR137 - 12/1
I'm hoping Gordon elects to send Cool Survivor to the Kim Muir as he's the sort of horse who is ready for this test now. He was an eye catching staying on 4th in the big 2m5f handicap chase at the DRF where he ran to the line and will come on further from that experience. He's had 4 runs over fences and was unlucky not to get his head Infront in one when 2nd to Quilixios which looks fair form. Solid chance.
Apple Away - OR137 - 25/1
Apple Away's participation in the Ultima looks in doubt as she may struggle to get in, so I wonder whether connections might opt to move her to this race off a mark of 137 which would see her slot into the race nicely. If they do decide to run her here, she'd be a decent each way bet at 25/1 especially as I feel this race would suit her better.
Weveallbeencaught - OR134 - 16/1
I think this is the race for Nigel Twiston-Davies horse as he looks like he needs extreme distances. He's unlikely to get in the Ultima off 134 but may sneak in this race. If he does he's got a squeak although he hasn't set the world alight over fences this season and has been a disappointing horse since he bombed out at the DRF last year in the Nathaniel Lacey. Intriguing runner.
Bowtogreatness - OR133 - 14/1
Another one who may sneak in, he is only intriguing runner who has an each way chance. He's unlikely to get into the Ultima like Weveallbeencaught so this is likely to be his main target assuming he runs. 3rd at Kempton last month in the Coral Trophy, he's a tough and improving sort who should give his running. One to consider.
Whacker Clan - OR131 - 14/1
Will need plenty to come out in this race for him to get a run, if he does strike lucky then I expect him to run well given he already has course and distance (ish) form. He's quite a young horse so is open to further improvement and is a tough sort on a nice enough mark of 131. The only caveat is whether he gets in the race which looks touch and go.
Conclusion:
COOL SURVIVOR stands out as my main selection in this race at 12/1, and he has the right sort of profile that Gordon Elliott excels with. A horse who was able to mix it in graded hurdles, has shown a fair level of form over fences having finished a neck 2nd to Arkle hope Quilixios in a beginners chase. Alongside that he finished an eye catching 4th on his latest start in a big field handicap which will stand him in good stead for this test at the festival. Off a mark of 137, that looks an attractive mark to exploit for connections. He's a strong each way selection.
Inothewayurthinkin heads the market and holds a favourites chance, at 9/2 he doesn't hold much juice in the price there. City Chief would be interesting at a big price on decent ground too but might be heading for Ayr, whilst Whacker Clan, Bowtogreatness and Weveallbeencaught both look attractively handicapped - however all 3 can blow hot and cold.
For my other selection I'll side with APPLE AWAY at a tasty price just incase she turns up here. She strikes me as though this race would suit her better rather than the Ultima and I'll take the 20/1 NRNB as it's been confirmed the Ultima would be her target providing she gets in. That looks touch and go, and she might end up being rerouted here. She's a decent jumper who's crying out for an extreme trip and looks a robust enough horse to handle a big field like this. The new course would also suit her better too. She's an alternative each way selection to the Irish horses at the top of the market just incase she runs here.
Bets:
Cool Survivor - 2pts ew @ 12/1 NRNB (Bet365)
Apple Away - 1.5pts ew @ 20/1 NRNB (Betfair)
Already Advised:
Theatre Man - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB - TrustATrader Plate (Advised 04/03/2024)
Saint Felicien - 1.25pts ew @ 14/1 NRNB - TrustATrader Plate (Advised 04/03/2024)
Saint Roi - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Grand Annual (Advised 04/03/2024)
Solness - 0.75pts ew @ 16/1 NRNB - Grand Annual (Advised 04/03/2024)
In Excelsis Deo - 0.75pts ew @ 16/1 NRNB - Grand Annual (Advised 04/03/2024)
Ballyadam - 1.25pts ew @ 25/1 NRNB - Coral Cup (Advised 01/03/2024)
Brazil - 1.25pts ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Coral Cup (Advised 01/03/2024)
Milan Tino - 1.5pts ew @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Fred Winter (Advised 29/02/2024)
Ose Partir - 0.75pts ew @ 25/1 (NRNB) - Fred Winter (Advised 29/02/2024)
Chianti Classico - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)
Meetingofthewaters - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)
Bold Endeavour - 0.75pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024)
Gowel Road - 1.5pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024
State Man - 2pts @ 8/11 (NRNB) - Champion Hurdle (Advised 28/02/2024)
Dancing City - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Albert Bartlett (Advised 26/02/2024)
Firefox - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Supreme Novices Hurdle (Advised 23/02/2024)
Embassy Gardens - 1pt win @ 5/2 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)
Broadway Boy - 1.5pts ew @ 10/1 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)
Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB - Turners Novice Chase (Advised 18/02/2024)
Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)
Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)
Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)
Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)
You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)
Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)
El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)
Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)
Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)
Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)
Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)
Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)
Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)
Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)
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