Antepost: Grand Annual Handicap Chase

With first glance the Grand Annual looks quite an open race this year. It's been an open contest in the last 3 seasons with winners at 14/1, 28/1, and Maskada winning last season at 22/1 on her favoured soft ground. She comes back to try and regain her crown and with the rain around festival week (could change) she has a chance of doing just that. Let's take a look at some of the other contenders in the field.

4:50 Cheltenham - 2m - Grand Annual Handicap Chase

Dancing On My Own - OR156 - 16/1

Winner off a mark of 151 at this course in October which is decent form when you see the runners who finished behind him at the Showcase meeting. He's been clobbered with 156 and will have to give weight to fellow classy 2 mile handicappers but he definitely has place claims given his obvious class. To be at his best it would need to be decent ground.

Saint Roi - OR152 - 8/1

I think Saint Roi has been given a chance here off a mark of 152 and dropping back into handicap company will help him get his head Infront. I think he has a good chance albeit he's on the short side and will need things to go right in race given he's a hold up horse. They'll go the pace he needs.

My Mate Mozzie - OR150 - 7/1

Another one who'll get the pace he needs, but will need things to go right. He's a good horse but he doesn't find a whole lot off the bridle and generally finds another horse who's a little bit tougher in the finish. He's so consistent you can see him travelling into the race and being in the money. Probably wants better ground to be at his best.

Master Chewy - OR150 - 16/1

Not much room off his current handicap mark of 150, which is probably the ceiling of his ability. He probably has a better chance here than in the Arkle however and if JPR One/Matata etc run well in the Arkle it would give a form boost to his chances in this, if he ran. Might prefer a flat track and I believe is target is the Arkle anyway. Solid horse.

Maskada - OR150 - 14/1

Winner of this race last season, she returns on a 8lb higher mark. Her trainer Henry De Bromhead has ran her in black type races without threatening, so the drop back to handicaps will help. The 8lb rise is a negative, but she might be able to replicate last seasons run if she gets proper soft ground. If she gets that, she will run a cracker.

Solness - OR149 - 20/1

Clobbered for a 6 length win at Fairyhouse in a handicap, I'd say that's pretty harsh even if he is a young and improving second season chaser. He's an interesting runner as there might be some more improvement there given he's still only a 6 year old and alongside his Fairyhouse win this season, he has a fine 3rd in the big 2 mile handicap chase at the DRF off top weight. If he does run, I wouldn't rule him out although he's been given a stiff task off 149. Really solid each way claims.

Enniskerry - OR148 - 20/1

Lightly raced for a 10 year old, he needs good ground to be at his best and won't run if the ground is soft by all accounts. If it's good ground, he's one for the shortlist as he should win a handicap in the future when he gets his ideal conditions. Chance if he gets his ideal conditions.

Saint Felicien - OR146 - 12/1

Took him 4 attempts to win over fences and I don't think he's the cleanest of jumpers to compete over 2 miles in this big field handicap. He had an engine but his jumping would concern me greatly.

Sa Fureur - OR145 - 12/1

Sa Fureur interests me. He reeks of a Gordon Elliott plot, it's just whether he can jump around safely and be there in contention at the last. It's not an easy race for novices with only Chosen Mate being a first season novice who took this race in the last 10 years, he also had 4 runs over fences compared to Sa Fureur's 3. Difficult to assess this fella but he's got a sporting chance given he's trained by Gordon Elliott.

Fils D'oudaries- OR144 - 33/1

If he can translate his hurdles form to fences, he is fairly well handicapped here. The problem is he's never really took to fences and it would be a big ask.

Madara- OR143 - 12/1

Winner at DRF over 2 miles in a handicap, he's also won at course and distance this year too. Running off 143, he's probably got some juice there in his handicap mark to run well and it's an open enough race this year. Soft ground would definitely help him, and he should run well given his consistent form this year. Solid chance.

Calico - OR143 - 20/1

Another horse who's been fairly consistent. His chances depend on the ground, if it's anyway soft then you can cross him off. If it's decent ground, he holds each way claims. I liked the way he battled back at Doncaster giving the winner lumps of weight. Might be a sitting duck from the front however.

Path D'oroux - OR142 - 12/1

He's been threatening to win a good handicap both over hurdles and fences but often finds one too good like his stablemate My Mate Mozzie. He's also got his jumping difficulties too, but he ran incredibly well finishing 2nd to Madara at the DRF. If his jumping lasts the rest which is no easy feat in this race on a tighter track than Leopardstown, he has his chance as he's fairly well handicapped on bits and pieces of form. Might be one to back with faller insurance if you fancied him.

Harpers Brook - OR140 - 12/1

He's not everyone's cup of tea given he's an absolute rogue, but rogues do win this race. A horse who does all his travelling on the bridle but finds zilch off it generally, my ears pricked when Ben Pauling mentioned he will be running in blinkers. I think that could eek a little more improvement out of him and I think he'll run well. He is a rogue, so he could easily blow out but you take your chances with these types. His odds have contracted in the past few days so he's skinny enough now.

Libberty Hunter - OR139 - 12/1

An interesting novice chaser who looks like he's attractively handicapped off 137. Evan Williams is debating whether to run him here given his lack of experience. He looks a 2 mile chaser to follow next year whatever happens especially on soft ground.

Unexpected Party - OR138 - 20/1

Probably been plotted up for this race once he came 5th in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He's a little tripless and hard to fancy given he's been given so many chances from punters over fences. Frustrating type.

Triple Trade - OR138 - 33/1

He has some decent form this year but I think he needs better ground. If he gets that, he's worth keeping onside at a big price.

Pinkerton - OR138 - 20/1

This lad will win a handicap, be it over hurdles or fences, one day but I'm not sure if I want to back him here. Keep him in mind for another day probably in Ireland. One for the tracker going forwards.

In Excelsis Deo - OR137 - 16/1

Interesting runner who might be suited to the fast pace of the Grand Annual given he's a strong finisher, the only issue is his jumping lets him down at times. Unseated at Sandown, he made 2 errors on the run in and I wonder if they may reach for a little bit of headgear to sharpen him up in this race. He's attractively handicapped off 137 and will be towards the lower end of the weights assuming he gets in (needs 6 to come out). I think hes a very interesting runner. He also has the option of the Plate but this race would suit him. Once he gets his jumping right, he will be better than his current mark.

The Folkes Tiara - OR133 - 20/1

I'm hoping this lad sneaks in at the bottom of the weights but might struggle to get in. He's like most 2 mile handicap chasers, blowing hot and cold, but I think he wants fairly decent ground rather than proper soft ground like at the DRF to be at his best. Provided that he gets in, and provided the ground isn't overly testing, I think he's the type to deliver a big performance as long as it's a going day. He needs 11 to defect, which could happen but it's very unlikely.

Frere D'Armes - OR133 - 20/1

Another one who's unlikely to get in this race as he needs 14 to defect which is very unlikely given most have this as their target. If he happened to get in, hes the strong travelling type who can travel and jump his way into contention. Whether he's there at the bottom of the hill and goes through with it, is another matter.

Conclusion:

I've just wrote out a big list of contenders for this race and still don't have a huge preference for one horse in this race. It's likely to be a compressed enough handicap in weight as there won't be the full weight range separating the top and bottom weight although that depends on who runs of course. It's also a race that will hugely depend on the ground too. There are a number of horses who want better ground, and plenty who want soft ground.

One I'll side with but is short enough at the moment but will proably go in any ground is SAINT ROI, and he's the first selection. I think he's crying out for this type of race and the faster they go, the better. He ran a good race in the Arkle last season where he was ridden to pick up the pieces, and I'm assuming he'll be ridden cold here too. I thought he caught the eye running a great race in the Dan Moore at Fairyhouse where he finished a staying on 4th off a big weight. He's got festival form having been a winner at the course over hurdles back in 2020. He's not well handicapped by any means but this might be a compressed handicap where he won't be giving lumps of weight to horses with loads of hand. JP McManus nearly pulled the same feat off with Andy Dufresne two years ago too. I'll go with him as the strong each way bet at 7/1 with 5 places on offer. You probably will get bigger on the day with even more places too.

There are other each way selections to mull over and there are plenty of them. I think SOLNESS has been treated harshly by the handicapper for a 6 length victory at Fairyhouse but he's a young improving horse who caught the eye running well behind Madara at the DRF off a big weight. That has caught my eye considering he was giving Madara over a stone who has his chance here too. He handles different types of ground and has only ran 8 times over fences which suggest he can improve further. Any horse who can run well in a top level handicap off top weight in Ireland usually suggests they are a good horse with plenty of ability. Off 149 it might be tough but he rates an each way bet at 16s.

The other one I'll suggest is a bit of a rogue, will likely be JP McManus' 2nd string and will need to sharpen his jumping up but I think IN EXCELSIS DEO could be one to keep on side assuming he gets in. Harry Fry's gelding ran two good races at Cheltenham over the same distance this season but his issue is that he's a low jumper who tends to brush his way through fences and it does cost him at times. He also needs to come late with a run too, and a big field should help him as he doesn't like to hit the front too soon as shown when 2nd to Madara. He's worth chancing small as he's the type to run a big race if he gets round especially as he's fairly handicapped off 137. I will split stakes on him and Solness as 2 each way bets at bigger prices with the non runner no bet concession.

Other horses who are on my radar, and there's plenty of more to think of seeing as it's so open, are the novices Sa Fuerer and Libberty Hunter, however their inexperience is a worry and only one first season novice chaser has won this in the last 10 years. You do need to be battle hardened and tough. Park D'oroux is the same too. Harpers Brook might go well with the blinkers on but he's a rogue that isn't trustworthy at his current odds. One to really consider at 20/1, and if the ground is decent, is The Folkes Tiara. Henry De Bromhead's charge blows hot and cold and will need 11 to defect from this race to run, but assuming he gets good ground, he could be set for a big run here off his current mark. He definitely has another race in him despite already landing a big handicap at Leopardstown earlier in the season.

Bets:

Saint Roi - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB (Firms paying 5 places)

Solness - 0.75pts ew @ 16/1 NRNB (General)

In Excelsis Deo - 0.75pts ew @ 16/1 NRNB (General)

Already Advised:

Ballyadam - 1.25pts ew @ 25/1 NRNB - Coral Cup (Advised 01/03/2024)

Brazil - 1.25pts ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Coral Cup (Advised 01/03/2024)

Milan Tino - 1.5pts ew @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Fred Winter (Advised 29/02/2024)

Ose Partir - 0.75pts ew @ 25/1 (NRNB) - Fred Winter (Advised 29/02/2024)

Chianti Classico - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)

Meetingofthewaters - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)

Bold Endeavour - 0.75pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024)

Gowel Road - 1.5pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024

State Man - 2pts @ 8/11 (NRNB) - Champion Hurdle (Advised 28/02/2024)

Dancing City - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Albert Bartlett (Advised 26/02/2024)

Firefox - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Supreme Novices Hurdle (Advised 23/02/2024)

Embassy Gardens - 1pt win @ 5/2 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Broadway Boy - 1.5pts ew @ 10/1 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB - Turners Novice Chase (Advised 18/02/2024)

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)