Antepost: Gold Cup Preview

I've been scratching my head as to what race to next unpick at the Cheltenham Festival in the 28 part series, so I decided to wait until after the Dublin Racing Festival to start making my decisions. I've unpicked 5 races so far, and mainly all the bets I've put up are in a good position.

Race preview number 6 is the big one, and the pinnacle for all jumps horses. The Gold Cup. Galopin Des Champs heads the market, and he looks set to have a big chance to win his second Gold Cup. The question is, do you stick with him at odds on or look for some value? Lets take a look.

3:30 Cheltenham - 3m2 1/2f - Cheltenham Gold Cup - Friday 15th March 2024

Galopin Des Champs - 10/11

An impressive winner of the Gold Cup last year, prevailing by over 7 lengths from Bravemansgame. There were plenty of people ready to knock his form and ability after his loss in the Punchestown Gold Cup last season, and the John Durkan in November to his old nemesis Fastorslow. I always maintained the faith in him however, and still maintain he was the best winner of a Gold Cup since the Kauto Star days. He's gone on to disprove the doubters and win both the Savills Chase and Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown this season, and is now a strong 10/11 favourite. I hope he wins the Gold Cup, and cements himself as one of the true greats of modern times. Do I want to back him at 10/11 currently? Probably not, I'll let him win and cheer him home.

Fastorslow - 6/1

An unlucky 2nd at 2 Cheltenham Festival's now finishing a short head behind Commander of Fleet in the Coral Cup (2022) and a neck behind Corach Rambler in the Ultima last year. That form was franked as we know, when Corach Rambler went on to win the Grand National. Winning the Punchestown Gold Cup last year after his Ultima run, it looked like a bit of a Punchestown fluke at the time however he backed it up by winning the John Durkan snugly back in November. I thought he ran an excellent trial for the Gold Cup on Saturday at the DRF finishing only 4 lengths behind Galopin. Nicer ground will help him in March, and he will come on a fair bit from that run given his trainer Martin Brassil is an excellent target trainer. He's the bet as it stands at 6/1.

Gerri Colombe - 9/1

Gerri Colombe is a proper stayer, and was made to look 2nd rate by Galopin Des Champs over Christmas finishing a well beaten 2nd by over 20 lengths. I think he lacks the tactical pace for the Gold Cup in the crucial part of the race, and I think he'll be the type who will pick up the pieces when some of the main protagonists shirk in the battle.

L'Homme Presse - 10/1

A winner of the Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield last month, you get the feeling he missed a big opportunity in last seasons Gold Cup when he got injured after the King George. A hugely talented animal, he ran well enough at Lingfield to suggest he retains all his ability and will come on plenty from that run. However he's set to run in the Ascot Chase in a couple of weeks which tempers my enthusiasm for him, as that meeting has a strong record of bottoming horses who go on to run at the Festival. The Ascot Chase will be just under 4 weeks until the Gold Cup, which is a worry. I wonder if he might be the type to win at Aintree as I still think he has the ability to pick up a Grade 1 this season.

Shishkin - 10/1

The fly in the ointment for many punters as he has the ability to win a Gold Cup but I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him currently. A horse of immense ability, he looked like he was set to win the King George in December before unshipping Nico on the run in. He was terribly unlucky however given he seemed to slip on landing, and you can't really blame the horse for it. However he does seem to be a horse where little things go wrong, such as refusing to start at Ascot or never travelling in the Ryanair last season when everything looked in his favour, and you don't know what horse will turn up. Set to run in the Denman Chase this weekend, he will likely win this en-route to the Gold Cup and isn't one to write off - however I couldn't trust the horse from an antepost position. If he turns up fit and firing, it would be great to see him put it all together from a racing fan point of view.

Hewick - 16/1

Winner of the King George in December when he looked like pulling up in the back straight, he would need genuine good ground and the main protagonists running below par to win. His trainer Shark O'Hanlon is a genuine character and it would be good to see him run well for the stable. A faller in this race last year when he looked beat at the time; I wonder if he will be ridden more conservatively (prominent last year) and come with a run like he did in the King George. Perhaps that might aid his chances of hitting the frame.

Bravemansgame - 20/1

2nd in the King George, he's been a busted flush this season getting beat 3 times. He doesn't get the trip based on last seasons run, and would likely be playing for place money at best. It's a shame to see what's happened to him this season given how good he was in the 22/23 season. He still has the ability to mix it at the highest level but might be better aimed to win at Punchestown, after his excellent 2nd there last season.

Corach Rambler - 20/1

Last seasons Grand National winner, he hasn't really performed this season being beaten twice. He ran a credible race in the Betfair Chase however, and he's the type who will be coming home strongly at his favoured track. If he can hit the top 5, that would be a successful run before another tilt at the Grand National in April.

Gentlemansgame - 20/1

Winner of the Charlie Hall in October, he's a second season chaser who's only ran 3 times over fences due to niggly injuries and setbacks that have been a theme throughout his racing career. A huge horse, it's probably his size that hasn't helped him and caused him those injuries over the years. He's got the ability to run well, but a big field and strong pace might find him out given his lack of experience.

Monkfish - 33/1

Another huge horse who's had his fair share of injuries, it's been a massive disappointment to not see him fulfil his potential over fences given he was such an impressive novice chaser back in 2021. Winner of the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park a couple of weeks ago, he's likely to take his chance in the Stayers Hurdle. I wonder if we'll ever see him over fences again.

Nassalam- 40/1

Impressive winner of the Welsh National in December by 30+ lengths, he doesn't have the class to compete in this race and probably needs a bog.

The Real Whacker - 40/1

Last years RSA winner has had a stop-start campaign. Bombing out in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase in November, he ran a likeable race in the King George finishing 4th. 2nd last time out in the Cotswolds Chase on trials day, that was more like it and could outrun his odds of 40/1 here if things fall his way. However he's not good enough to beat the first few in the market and will be playing for place cash at best.

Ahoy Senor - 100/1

One of my favourite horses, and a real enigma. He is a really talented horse when he puts it all together. Sadly that isn't all the time, but to be fair to him he's a quite unlucky horse where things tend to go wrong for him often. He was running a good race in the Cotswold Chase before the stirrup broke and his jockey had to ease his way home. If connections decide to run in the Gold Cup, he could turn up and run a cracker and a good run would be in the first 5. He has options of the Ryanair and Stayers Hurdle however.

Conclusion:

It looks Galopin Des Champs race assuming he jumps round and there are no issues with him. From a racing fan point of view, I'd like to see him win another Gold Cup and cement himself as one of the true greats. He's also ran 3 times this year winning both 3 mile Grade 1 chases in Ireland convincingly and deserves to win in March. If you were keen to back him, you'll probably be able to get even money on the day if the bookmakers are having a good festival and I wouldn't put anyone off.

From a price point of view however, I'm going to side with FASTORSLOW at 6/1 as a solid each way bet incase the favourite underperforms. He ran an excellent trial for the Gold Cup at the DRF finishing just 4 lengths behind Galopin, and slightly better ground will give him a better chance of turning the tables. Galopin Des Champs has had a hard season, and if there are any chinks in his armour, I expect Martin Brassil to have Fastorslow in tip-top condition to take advantage at Prestbury Park.

Shishkin and L'Homme Presse cannot be discounted, and Shishkin remains a fly in the ointment for most punters if he wins the Denman Chase impressively on Saturday. I can't trust Shishkin, and although I hope he runs a cracker, he won't be carrying my money. L'Homme Presse is another horse you can't discount, and if he does turn up at Ascot on soft ground in a couple of weeks, that would be a real negative to his chances in my mind.

Further down the field, The Real Whacker could outrun his odds at 40/1 given he's improved steadily since his lacklustre display in November. If Ahoy Senor does turn up, I hope the Dylan Thomas enigma shows some sort of spark and fills the top 5 before a tilt at the Bowl at Aintree in April.

Bets:

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB (Coral)

Bets:

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)