Antepost: Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

We're flying through the handicaps with 3 done already. We now move onto the Fred Winter/Boodles Handicap Hurdle which is for juveniles and it's always a bit of a minefield. Hopefully I can shine some light on it in this preview, and give some answers to the questions. Hopefully.

4:50 Cheltenham - 2m1/2f - Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4YO)

Kala Conti - OR135 - 20/1

With Nurburgring set to go to the Triumph, Kala Conti would be top weight. However she's set to go to Fairyhouse and France according to the owners son. She's a very good horse in her own right and one of the best jumpers of a hurdle in training, it's a shame to see her swerve Cheltenham.

Ndaawi - OR134 - 10/1

Set to be top weight with the defection of Nurburgring and Kala Conti. He's been clobbered by the handicapper with a mark of 134 and might struggle. The fact that he's a battle hardened horse on the flat, where he shown fair ability, will help his cause. Skinny enough at 10/1 right now.

Liari - OR134 - 12/1

Another one who'll have to shoulder top weight, he might be rerouted to the Triumph according to a preview night I watched. He's probably rated about right given he's won 3 out of 3 this season including 2 impressive wins at Aintree and Musselburgh. Looks the type that Nicholls will rev up for the festival and he has a good record in this race. Probably find one better handicapped however, but he does look a really resolute galloper.

Batman Girac - OR133 - 7/1

Hugely talented but there must be serious concerns that he won't handle the preliminaries and atmosphere. Even jockey Michael O'Sullivan, who rode him in his run at Leopardstown over Christmas when he finished 4th, said he's a lunatic. They must be happy with his mark of 133 as he hasn't run since it was allotted, but is one to watch before race to see how he handles it the prelims. Talented.

Wodhooh- OR130 - 10/1

A serial winner this season winning 5 out of 5. Rated 130, I'd say that's about fair given she's got a decent bit of form. Needs better ground ideally to be at her best, I wouldn't discount her and she's on par with a couple of the other fillies in the race who have their chance too.

Cossack Chach - OR130 - 20/1

On par with Wadhooh given the neck between them with this lad giving a couple of pounds in the race conditions. Off levels here and he's a good front runner who'll probably run his race. He won't get an easy lead here though but 20/1 isn't the worst price in the world given he'll keep improving as a lightly raced juvenile.

Miss Manzor - OR130 - 16/1

I think she's got the right profile for this race having had some racing on the flat and over jumps, and looks a nice little filly to go to war with for connections. 130 is probably about right but has she done as much as Wadhooh? No. However she had a decent run in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown over Christmas and probably has her stablemate Karla Des Blaises number having finished Infront of her a couple of times despite getting the run of the race at Fairyhouse. Good each way chance.

Givemefive - OR129 - 20/1

2nd to the talking horse in the Adonis at Kempton last weekend. Although he's qualified, he had a hard race and I expect they'll aim him at Aintree.

Eagle Fang - OR127 - 14/1

He has a good profile for this race, especially having won the 4yo hurdle at Naas which has been a reliable indicator for winners of this race in the past. He would need soft ground to be at his best, so is one to keep in mind if they get any rain in the days leading up to the festival.

Karia Des Blaises - OR127 - 25/1

Held by Miss Manzor but she will improve for that run. Not had the same racing experience as her stablemate as she only had one run on the flat before her 3 hurdle runs. She's also National Hunt bred too, so will go on to improve in the next season or two. 25/1 is definitely overpriced if you think Miss Manzor has a squeak, although she might be a little inexperienced.

An Bradan Feasa - OR126 - 33/1

I'd be willing to forgive his run at Musselburgh which was likely a prep for this race. A winner at Cheltenham already in December, he finished 2nd to Burdett Road at Cheltenham in a Grade 2. Likely to go from the front, he's probably not as well handicapped as another horse who's on a mark of 126. See below.

Milan Tino - OR126 - 8/1

I was interested in Milan Tino for this race through the winter and was hoping he may be dropped 4 or 5lbs from his original mark of 136. He's been dropped 10lb! I think he's superbly handicapped and I wouldn't be surprised to see Mark Walsh or Jonjo O'Neill on him, go from the front and it'll be catch me if you can time. Although he's not the quickest horse (NH bred), he looks a proper galloper and will be ridden prominent which I like in this race. A serious each way proposition at 8/1.

Nara- OR126 - 20/1

She's seen a little bit of support recently despite not really offering much of a gallop since arriving at Henry De Bromhead's. A winner in France over hurdles by 8L, she clearly has ability but I think she'll lack the experience and mentality for this race. She hasn't really been in much of a race unlike Milan Tino (same owner) and this might come as a bit of a shock.

Ose Partir - OR126 - 25/1

Ose Partir caught my eye back in October when he finished 2nd to Kaleosun, and has been on my radar for this since then. He's since ran in 3 graded hurdles finishing nowhere but has some how been given a rating of 126 by the handicapper? It does look a plot to me by his shrewd trainer Martin Brassil but he's finished a best place 8th out of those 3 graded races. He's very keen, so will likely be held up (a negative for me in this race) and I think he wants good ground to be at his best. At 25/1 you can take your chance as an each way bet but would need things to fall right - it's not out of the realms of possibility given his trainer is a bit of a genius.

Lark In The Mornin - OR122 - 5/1

He hasn't been missed in the market and probably is a handicap blot but I don't see the fuss with this horse. Yes he's been eye catching in 3 maiden hurdles but there are plenty of others who have been too. Probably has his chance off a low weight and has been well plotted up, but he doesn't strike me as a potential graded performer in the future that is running off 30lbs well in (Gaelic Warrior anyone?). Terrible price despite his obvious low mark. I'll let him win and have egg on my face.

Palamon- OR121 - 40/1

Eye catching in a couple of maiden hurdles. He's the type of juvenile Paul Nolan will get off the flat and rev up for this race after 3 runs over hurdles - see Metamorpheus and HMS Seahorse for a couple of examples. Not for me however.

Kaleosun - OR119 - 40/1

If you're looking for a horse at 40/1 or bigger who might give you a spin for your money, I'd go with Kaleosun. It's probably looking unlikely that he'll get in but if he did slip in at the bottom of the weights - I'd give him a chance. He beat Ose Partir (rated 126) at Galway back in a October before being stuffed in graded hurdles since. I think he's the type of horse who Gordon Elliott lets show their hand early on before being plotted up for this type of race and could outrun his odds. Would need 8 to come out, which is unlikely.

Conclusion:

MILAN TINO is comfortably my main selection for this race having been allotted a mark of 126 by the handicapper earlier in the week. For a horse who was rated 136 before his run at Cheltenham in January behind Sir Gino, I'm scratching my head as to what the handicapper is thinking here. Hes probably right, and I'm wrong, but I think he's been given a fantastic chance especially when I see horses like Ndaawi, Cossack Chach and Liari being given figures well above 126. I can see Milan Tino being allowed to stride on and use his stamina and outmuscle some of these in a likely brutal affair. The fact he's shown a good level of ability finishing in and around Burdett Road which is good form, plus having a sighter of the track is a huge positive. He might suit the new course better, but is a better horse than a mark of 126 and he's the main selection here. A little bit of rain might help him blunt the speed of some ex flat horses too. He's a very strong each way selection although we missed some bigger prices last week before his new rating come out.

Other horses on my shortlist were Ndaawi, however he's likely to be top weight and would need a good conditional on board to aid his chances. Whilst Batman Girac is a talented animal but might blow his chances due to his temperament. Paul Nicholls' runner Liari might also end up in the Triumph Hurdle. He looks a nice prospect whatever he does.

There are also 2 fillies that are likely to run well, both trained by Willie Mullins and have similar form lines having faced each other in the same race. Miss Manzor came out on top that and will be running off a mark of 130. With the weights set to rise, she will likely be carrying 11st8lb and that could be a tricky task for this filly to give to the rest of the field who are mostly all open to improvement. Karla Des Blaises, the other filly, was 2nd to her at Fairyhouse and Miss Manzor got the run of the race too. With natural improvement to come, she is weighted a little lower and might also be one to keep an eye on. I think both will run well in this race, but i won't be adding either as a selection.

My other selection is next and seeing as I've had OSE PARTIR on my shortlist for this race since his 2nd at Galway back in October, I'll also put him up as an each way shout at a tasty enough price. Whilst I think he's been harshly treated by the handicapper with a mark of 126, he's been plotted up for this race by Martin Brassil - a shrewd man to follow at Cheltenham - and if things fall his way he has the ability to outrun his odds. His temperament is questionable as he's a free goer and any significant rain would be a negative, but he definitely has the ability and will be ridden cold before coming through with a run. With a bit of luck he could nick a place. 25/1 is worth taking as I think he may be punted in, in the coming days. it's always worth keeping Kaleosun in mind at an even bigger price, if you fancy a punt on something at the bottom of the weights.

Bets:

Milan Tino - 1.5pts ew @ 8/1 NRNB (Skybet)

Ose Partir - 0.75pts ew @ 25/1 NRNB (Bet365)

Already Advised:

Chianti Classico - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)

Meetingofthewaters - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)

Bold Endeavour - 0.75pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024)

Gowel Road - 1.5pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024

State Man - 2pts @ 8/11 (NRNB) - Champion Hurdle (Advised 28/02/2024)

Dancing City - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Albert Bartlett (Advised 26/02/2024)

Firefox - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Supreme Novices Hurdle (Advised 23/02/2024)

Embassy Gardens - 1pt win @ 5/2 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Broadway Boy - 1.5pts ew @ 10/1 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB - Turners Novice Chase (Advised 18/02/2024)

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)