Antepost: County Handicap Hurdle

One of my favourite handicaps of the year. I have an ok record in this race at big prices rather than the shorties. I backed Belfast Banter 33/1, don't ask me why. Mohayeed was another. I wasn't on Saint Roi, State Man or Superb Story however. It looks a decent race again this year and the likelihood is that it will be softish ground with bits and pieces of rain around.

2:10 Cheltenham - 2m1f - County Handicap Hurdle

Pied Piper - OR156 - 14/1

Last years 2nd. He's got a huge amount of class but tends to shirk in a battle. I backed him in the Cesarewitch and he was probably delivered a little too late in that. Maybe that's what needs to happen here rather than get into an intense duel up the hill like in this race last year. Has an each way chance.

Zenta - OR145 - 16/1

Ran a cracker at the Dublin Racing Festival after an aborted novice chase campaign. She ran in the 2 mile handicap hurdle and finished a creditable 3rd given she's come off an interrupted and unorthodox prep. Holds solid each way claims.

Magical Zoe - OR144 - 14/1

2nd just Infront of Zenta by a nose at the DRF. She holds excellent claims of hitting the frame at the minimum, and with a bit of luck she can win this. Her and Zenta are probably 150+ mares for next season, so both have solid claims here to improve and take this after their runs at Leopardstown.

Encanto Bruno - OR143 - 25/1

To be seen at his best it would need to be good ground and that will be unlikely even come the Friday. I think he's probably a little better over further too.

Lisnagar Fortune - OR142 - 14/1

I'm assuming his target may be the Martin Pipe but I like this horse. He's bred to be a 3 miler but he pulls and drags his jockey too much to get that trip at the moment. He's definitely got ability but wouldn't be top of my list this season.

Hansard - OR142 - 20/1

Assuming the top of the weights stay in, Hansard might get a favourable racing weight this time. He was pulled from the Betfair Hurdle due to being top weight and heavy ground, but he might get ideal conditions here. He's progressive and 142 might not be the top of his ceiling.

King of Kingsfield - OR140 - 13/2

Well backed in the last couple of weeks and I can see why. He screams like a horse who wants a big field and plenty of pace in the race. He's clearly a bit of a monkey and things need to fall his way but he has an excellent chance off 140. Really soft ground would be a worry however and he's not the most trustworthy.

Bialystok - OR139 - 14/1

Travelling well at the DRF being being brought down, it's probably likely he'd of been there or thereabouts in the finish. I'm not sure on this lads resolution in the battle and he'd of had to really put his head down and battle against 3 tough horses at the DRF to win. I think he'll certainly travel into the race, but whether he'll go through with it entirely is a question he needs to answer especially against really classy types.

Under Control - OR138 - 12/1

I think this mare is definitely well handicapped and was supposed to run at Kelso in the Morebattle last weekend. She was pulled out on the day due to travel issues and that's a slight worry for her here as it's not been confirmed what the issue was. If she gets real drying ground, she'll go close.

Favour and Fortune - OR138 - 25/1

2nd at Aintree in a Grade 1 to Jango Baie, that form looks a little shaky now despite Jango Baie running well in 2 starts since (without winning). Im not sure if Alan King's lad is a little soft at the moment and needs to grow up a little before winning a race like this. He is hugely talented however.

Absurde - OR138 - 10/1

If they get decent ground on the day, then he should run well given he's already battle hardened from the flat to handle big fields - which would be a worry for Favour and Fortune and King of Kingsfield for example who might find this a real eye opener. Whether he jumps well enough for a big field is a question he has to answer. The ground seems important for him too, if it's very soft, that's a negative to his chances.

Risk Belle - OR137 - 16/1

An eye catching run at the DRF finishing 5th. She was well beaten but had to carry a big weight that day and that should set her up well for this. A close 3rd in the Fred Winter last year, I can see her coming home strong and I think she has a little wiggle room off a mark of 137. Her owner JP McManus has a strong hand in this race and she's a strong contender for him.

Guard Your Dreams - OR137 - 33/1

I think he's well handicapped but he might head for the Coral Cup where he'd also be on the each way shortlist. Definitely an interesting runner with some backclass.

Favior - OR136 - 20/1

Dan Skelton is a dangerous man in this race and he will likely throw last years winner Favior at the race again off a 2lb higher mark. He is set to run in the Imperial Cup this weekend, which would be a worry as that is usually a brutal affair on grim enough ground.

L'Eau Du Sud - OR135 - 10/1

Travelled into the Betfair Hurdle well before being nailed late on by Iberico Lord. He got a little lonely and perhaps was sent on too early by Harry Skelton. He's talented, wants soft ground but will need everything to fall right.

Impose Toi - OR134 - 16/1

Another McManus runner who holds a chance. 3rd in the Lanzarote at Kempton, he will probably enjoy the drop back in trip and holds each way claims.

So Scottish - OR133 - 16/1

Another McManus runner with a chance too! He was probably Infront too early at the DRF over 2 miles, I assume they thought off a mark of 128 he would keep going but he seems like a tricky ride and might need to be waited with before being delivered late. Another one with each way claims off a fair mark.

Ocastle Des Mottes - OR133 - 20/1

An interesting runner as he might come on a fair bit after his run in the Betfair Hurdle. 8th that day, he had to be reshod before the race which took around 10 minutes which didn't help his cause (and others). With a bit of luck he might run well in one of the handicaps at the festival off 133.

Ascending - OR132 - 40/1

Probably doesn't like winning, but he is a horse who seems to run on late and go into many punters trackers for the next time. You can't trust him but he might run well at a big price given his run in the Triumph last year on a course he seemed to enjoy.

Altobelli - OR131 - 33/1

A favourite of the blog, he hasn't got his head Infront this year although he threatens to win a big one especially off a mark of 131. He probably wasn't helped by the 10 minute delay to the Betfair Hurdle as he finished tamely in the finish and gave no sort of running. Might struggle to get in as he needs plenty to come out.

Conclusion:

JP McManus holds a strong hand here with Zenta, Risk Belle, Impose Toi, Under Control and So Scottish all holding chances. Whilst Gordon Elliott also holds a couple of nice chances too including last years 2nd Pied Piper and the current favourite King of Kingsfield who should run well off a mark of 140.

I do like King of Kingsfield but I'll be on weather watch for him as he needs decent ground to be at his best. My preference would be for one of the mares in the field with Zenta, Magical Zoe and Risk Belle on my shortlist, and I'll split my stakes on all 3 and cross my fingers that one of them gets their head Infront.

ZENTA ran a cracker at the DRF after only having one run that season, and that was in a novice chase. With natural improvement for her first proper outing of the season, she must hold strong chances and has form tied in with the superstar Lossiemouth from last seasons Triumph. She ran a cracker that day on only her 3rd run over hurdles and 2nd run for connections too. I'm hoping Pied Piper stays in the race and she won't have to carry top weight. She should come on a great deal from Leopardstown.

MAGICAL ZOE was a neck behind Zenta that day getting 1lb off her and looks another one who's set up well for a tilt that this race which should suit her. She's been in great form this season having given the top class Irish Point a race at Down Royal despite getting lumps of weight. That looks top class form for a mare who can mix it with a true Grade 1 animal. Although she's entered for the Mares Hurdle, with the rain around, she'd be more suited to the 2 mile test and also holds excellent claims off a mark of 144. She looks a 150+ rated mare in the future and is in really good heart which is a plus this season.

RISK BELLE finishes off the 3 strong shortlist and has festival form herself having finished 3rd in the Fred Winter last year. A real consistent mare, she's disappointed twice but the step back in trip to 2 miles should suit her and she strikes me as a horse who's been set up for this race after disappointing on deep ground over a distance too far at Leopardstown at Christmas. Off a mark of 137, she has a few pounds in hand and I expect a big run in a race that should suit her.

Although we have 3 selections I'm hopeful one will win this although I do fear King of Kingsfield or Absurd if the ground dries out sufficiently. Another mare to strongly consider is Under Control too, but I'm a little worried about her given she was a non-runner at Kelso and it's not been confirmed what the issue was.

Bets:

Zenta - 1pt ew @ 14/1 NRNB - Betfair/Paddy Power

Magical Zoe - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Skybet

Risk Belle - 1pt ew @ 16/1 - Skybet

Bets:

Kargese - 1.5pts ew @ 8/1 NRNB - Triumph Hurdle (Advised 07/03/2024)

Brighterdaysahead - 2pts win @ 13/8 NRNB - Mares Novice Hurdle (07/03/2024)

Cool Survivor - 2pts ew @ 12/1 NRNB - Kim Muir (Advised 05/03/2024)

Apple Away - 1.5pts ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Kim Muir (Advised 05/03/2024)

Theatre Man - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB - TrustATrader Plate (Advised 04/03/2024)

Saint Felicien - 1.25pts ew @ 14/1 NRNB - TrustATrader Plate (Advised 04/03/2024)

Saint Roi - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Grand Annual (Advised 04/03/2024)

Solness - 0.75pts ew @ 16/1 NRNB - Grand Annual (Advised 04/03/2024)

In Excelsis Deo - 0.75pts ew @ 16/1 NRNB - Grand Annual (Advised 04/03/2024)

Ballyadam - 1.25pts ew @ 25/1 NRNB - Coral Cup (Advised 01/03/2024)

Brazil - 1.25pts ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Coral Cup (Advised 01/03/2024)

Milan Tino - 1.5pts ew @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Fred Winter (Advised 29/02/2024)

Ose Partir - 0.75pts ew @ 25/1 (NRNB) - Fred Winter (Advised 29/02/2024)

Chianti Classico - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)

Meetingofthewaters - 0.75pts win @ 8/1 (NRNB) - Ultima Handicap Chase (Advised 29/02/2024)

Bold Endeavour - 0.75pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024)

Gowel Road - 1.5pts ew @ 33/1 - Pertemps Final (Advised 28/02/2024

State Man - 2pts @ 8/11 (NRNB) - Champion Hurdle (Advised 28/02/2024)

Dancing City - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Albert Bartlett (Advised 26/02/2024)

Firefox - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Supreme Novices Hurdle (Advised 23/02/2024)

Embassy Gardens - 1pt win @ 5/2 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Broadway Boy - 1.5pts ew @ 10/1 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB - Turners Novice Chase (Advised 18/02/2024)

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)