Antepost: Cheltenham Festival Longshots

With the weather wrecking havoc with the racing here in the United Kingdom and across the Irish Sea, there's been a depressing lull hanging over the sport since the festive period. We have to hang in there though as plenty of good racing from next Saturday flows onto the next few weekends with the Dublin Racing Festival on the horizon too. The midweek racing starts to dry up after Christmas as well, so the focus will now turn to the big spring festivals through the week here at TRM HQ. I'll be trying to do as much as possible through the midweek lulls for Cheltenham including previewing as many races as possible, and the Path to the Festival blog with all my selections leading up to those 4 days in March.

The weekly Longshots blog has proved fruitful this year with over 18pts profit to advised stakes. Unfortunately our selection Honneur D'Ajonc at Wincanton didn't run his race at all and probably looks one to avoid as he doesn't seem to be too happy over fences, so maybe a switch back to hurdles for a few spins would be beneficial. With Longshots in mind, this is a Cheltenham antepost special that you're very welcome to read. Hopefully some big priced selections below can be of interest come March, and there is a little bit of value in the markets if you go looking although plenty of races have questions to be answered in the next few weeks as horses get set for their prep runs.

Captain Guinness - Queen Mother Champion Chase - 33/1

CAPTAIN GUINNESS ran a mighty race in the Champion Chase last yesr despite being beaten 10 lengths by Energumene, and looked as good as ever in the Fortria Chase in November slamming Riviere D'etel by 7 lengths. She has franked the form since winning a Grade 3 by 33L since. Disappointing in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas, it's well documented that Captain Guinness probably doesn't enjoy that place much - having hardly ran a race at the South Dublin course.

Although he's well up against it facing 2 high class 2 milers in El Fabiolo and Jonbon, he can happily travel behind the front 2 in the market and if the race falls apart come with a late run and pick up the pieces. 2 milers tend to get better with age, and I think that's the case with Captain Guinness if you can ignore his last run at Leopardstown. A strong traveller who's matured since his younger days where he didn't find much off the bridle in these graded events, 33/1 is a tasty each way price given the likelihood of a small field and there have been many shocks in this race before - so don't discount him.

Monty's Star - Brown Advisory Novices Chase - 20/1

The Brown Advisory or the old RSA is shaping up to be a good race this year with 3 runners at the top of the market holding solid claims. Grangeclare West, Stay Away Fay and Fact to File are all 6/1 and under, and all 3 look to hold serious chances. There are also others you cannot ignore in the market too which gives the race even more depth. Corbetts Cross is a talented animal but needs to work on his jumping, whilst Broadway Boy and Hermes Allen are also horses that can have a big shout if they run to the peak of their ability. One horse who may just fall short in the class department possibly, but will make up for it in attitude and jumping is MONTY'S STAR.

This lad could be a potential Gold Cup horse given his trainers record with 3 mile chasers, so maybe I'm being a little bit harsh on doubting his class, however he still needs to prove he can reach that level, given he bombed out in the Albert Bartlett last season where he pulled up. Perhaps that race came a little soon after his win at Clonmel in a Grade 3 beating the well regarded stablemate HiddenValley Lake over 3 miles in heavy ground. Tried over fences this year, he ran in a hot beginners chase finishing a eye catching 3rd behind Corbetts Cross and Three Card Brag. Next seen at Punchestown over 3 miles, he turned the form around with Three Card Brag on heavy ground jumping well to outclass his opponent on the run in. He could possibly go for the National Hunt Chase but I expect connections will want Rachael Blackmore on, and he probably will prefer the test of the Brown Advisory at this stage of his career. 20/1 rates a decent small each way bet for this decent novice chaser in a hot race.

Appreciate It - Ryanair Chase - 14/1

I did toy with sticking Banbridge up at 25/1 but the fact that he is so ground dependent tempers my enthusiasm, so I'll stick with my long term fancy APPRECIATE IT. I probably didn't give him enough credit for his run in the Savills Chase at Christmas, where he jumped and travelled well into the race before blatantly not staying. The Jeremy gelding looks a different animal this year compared to last year. Perhaps 3 runs in less then 3 months took the edge off him when going into the Turners at the Festival, where he lugged and hanged in the home straight to finish 4th.

His first run over the season, as discussed before, in the John Durkan is a cracking piece of form where he separated Fastorslow and Galopin Des Champs, and that gives him solid claims to be involved in the finish here. That rates as a run that you could mark up to a horse who could achieve a rating of 160+, so that puts him in the mix of things here. Prominent tactics suit him well, and it's hoped they will be deployed in this race too, as he never seemed comfortable being held up in the Turners and other races last season. Unsure whether he will be given a prep in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival or elsewhere, perhaps he can come into this fresh and then go on to compete in the middle distance Grade 1's such as the Ryanair and the Melling Chase at Aintree. He looks the standout each way bet at the moment.

Down Memory Lane - Supreme Novice Hurdle - 33/1

I was quick to write off horses such as Daddy Long Legs and DOWN MEMORY LANE when they ran no sort of race in the Future Champions Novice at Leopardstown over Christmas, but I think I may have been too harsh on the latter looking back at it. Heavily backed into 5/4 in the days leading up to the 2 mile event at Christmas, he was a well beaten 3rd in absolutely atrocious conditions. Without a doubt he wants better ground, and it was to his credit he carried on finishing off the race when he clearly couldn't handle it. He was tenderly handled by Derek O'Connor after his chance had gone, and perhaps his next race will be in the 2 mile Grade 1 event at the DRF.

Supposed to be working well before his race at Christmas, he looks like a horse his team will want to keep to 2 miles for now especially if he bounces back to form in his next race. Whilst he isn't a guaranteed runner at Cheltenham, his price of 20/1 is fair enough with a non-runner no-bet concession via William Hill in an open looking Supreme but I'll chance the 33s around. As mentioned the Supreme market looks so open, so it could be worth taking a chance on a horse like Down Memory Lane to bounce back to form after his race at Christmas where he had genuine excuses. Other shouts could of gone to Farren Glory (16/1) and Leopardstown maiden hurdle winner No Flies On Him.

Bold Endeavour - Pertemps Final - 40/1

It's probably a silly shout to put up a selection in a handicap at this stage of the season, but BOLD ENDEAVOUR will give you a good run for your money at 40/1. He's not well handicapped by any means, but this lad is so tough and genuine, there won't be many horses tougher then him in the finish and he rates a decent each way bet given this is his Cheltenham target.

Rated 144, he has already run 3 consistent races over hurdles this season including having to give the progressive White Rhino over a stone in a 3 mile handicap at Cheltenham last month. As long as he lines up, expect him to go close although he will likely be passed by a more progressive runner with a few pounds in hand on ratings. There might be a chance of a decent claimer riding him to take off a few pounds to improve his chances too.