Antepost: Champion Hurdle

The racing world was rocked yesterday when Constitution Hill trailed his stablemates in a gallop at Kempton and it was confirmed by his trainer that there was mucus in his trachea and he was under the weather. The bookmakers suspended betting on the Champion Hurdle, and when reopened, it was turned upside down. It's a market which doesn't have much value to my eye, so I'm going to have to be stingy. Let's take a look.

3:30 Cheltenham - 2m1/2f - Unibet Champion Hurdle

Constitution Hill - 4/6

As mentioned, the news that Consitution Hill was under the weather rocked the racing world yesterday. I'm absolutely gutted as I really want to see the Blue Bresil machine win 2 or 3 on the bounce. He looks one of the best horses we've ever seen, but it's clear something hasn't been right since Kempton and it will take something special to get him back to win this. Any setback in the run up to the festival is a big negative. I cannot stress enough how much I want him to win however, even without a penny on him - just as a racing fan.

State Man - 8/11

For all I want Constitution Hill to win, I wouldn't be averse to see State Man take it either. For all he's probably a few lengths off Constitution Hill at his best, he's still one of the best 2 mile hurdlers we've seen in recent times. If Constitution Hill is there to be beat, he's as vulnerable as he'll ever be right now and State Man will be there to take full advantage.

Lossiemouth - 10/3

Unlikely to head here unless something happens with State Man. Should go the Mares Hurdle before a possible tilt at this next season.

Irish Point - 6/1

I'm assuming Gordon Elliott will move Irish Point here even if Constitution Hill runs. I assume he will see it as a good opportunity to pick up good prize money and if it's only State Man to beat, anything could happen. You can probably agree with his decision now given there could only be State Man to beat and they have Teahupoo for the Stayers. Not good for my Stayers Hurdle pick though.

Not So Sleepy - 12/1

Grade 1 winner this year and a lover of soft ground. Will be trying to play for place cash.

Pied Piper - 16/1

Likely to head to the County Hurdle after his 2nd place in the same race last year. He's going to be top weight in that, and despite his ability, I can't see him giving weight to a few novices who look well treated. Instead I would prefer him to run here where he'll be allowed to travel off the pace and come through late to nab the places especially if the race falls apart. There are a few who'll be ridden that way mind. He is a bit of a monkey as we all know too.

Luccia - 16/1

Another one who'll be ridden cold and delivered late. She's got a lot of ability but would need good ground to run to her best.

Zarak The Brave - 16/1

I think he's got a fair amount of ability and could run well here especially if Constitution Hill doesn't turn up. Galway Hurdle winner in the summer, he's the type to improve in the next year or 2 even further.

Echoes in Rain - 20/1

Similar to Pied Piper, a bit of a monkey who needs to be ridden cold. Definitely should be at the top of the shortlist for a place only bet on the day.

Nemean Lion - 25/1

Had a cracking season but the aim seems to be the Aintree Hurdle.

Colonel Mustard - 33/1

Will be ridden off the pace and try to take as much prize money he can for his connections.

Conclusion:

I would love to see Constitution Hill win this and go into next years race hoping to emulate Istabraq and co by winning 3 Champion Hurdles. However seeing his gallop at Kempton yesterday raised some huge alarm bells, and even if they were able to solve his illness, you'd assume he won't be 100%. It's going to be difficult for him to get over his illness in time to be fit and firing with under 2 weeks until the big one, especially seeing he had been suffering with something in January when he missed his prep run on Trials Day. Maybe he's got a long term infection that they've struggled to get rid of, and might draw stumps.

Although the odds are stingy enough at 8/11 (NRNB) I'll side with STATE MAN. It will be a no bet race for me in terms of punting any of these from a win or each way point of view, but as I have gave myself the challenge of previewing all 28 races, my pick would be Willie Mullins runner due to Constitution Hill's current setback. State Man will turn up and run his race into the high 160s in terms of performance and that will do for me given Nicky Henderson's charge clearly being under the weather. Any horse which has a setback in the run up the festival damages their chances no matter what - see Kauto Star for example 2008

I'll be looking at Zarak The Brave or Echoes in Rain as potential place betting options on the day being my only angle here, but only if the price is right. Lets hope we do get a clash of the ages between the front 2 in the market and Constitution Hill turns up A1. I can't see it myself however, but I'm naturally pessimistic.

Bets:

State Man - 2pts @ 8/11 NRNB (Paddy Power)

Already Advised:

Dancing City - 1.5pts ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Albert Bartlett (Advised 26/02/2024)

Firefox - 1pt ew @ 7/1 NRNB - Supreme Novices Hurdle (Advised 23/02/2024)

Embassy Gardens - 1pt win @ 5/2 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Broadway Boy - 1.5pts ew @ 10/1 NRNB - National Hunt Chase (Advised 22/02/2024)

Facile Vega - 1pt win @ 5/1 NRNB - Turners Novice Chase (Advised 18/02/2024)

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Advised 16/02/2024)

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)