Antepost: Champion Chase Preview

Preview number 5, and we'll go with the Queen Mother Champion Chase where it looks a 2 horse race this year with a few horses who've competed in this race over the years sprinkled around hoping to fill the places. The Champion Chase, without doubt, is one of my favourite races of the year - however it's not always the most straightforward of races. In the last decade you haven't seen any big priced winners with the biggest SP being 11/1 when Special Tiara won back in 2017. However you've had a few horses who have been heavy favourites who've been turned over in this race including in the said 2017 race when Douvan was beat (broke his pelvis however), and also 2020 when Defi Du Seuil was turned over at 2/5f. Another big shock was when Chacun Pour Soi was beaten at 8/13f.

Despite the Champion Chase being one of my favourite races, there has been, and still is, a lack of genuine top class 2 mile chasers in training and the race has been diluted slightly. Saying that for as long as I remember it's never been a big field. The race seems to revolve around the 2 market principals in El Fabiolo and Jonbon, and it should be a fascinating race to watch if they both turn up.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - 2m - Wednesday 13th March 2024

El Fabiolo - Evens

Last years Arkle winner, and the current heavy favourite for the Champion Chase. A horse with an immense amount of ability, he isn't the best jumper you've seen over 2 miles compared to some of the greats, however he gets from A to B sufficiently and is my idea of the winner. Although he suffered defeat to Jonbon over hurdles, I think he has improved massively since that run beyond Jonbon, and he holds sway over Jonbon due to his deadly finishing effort off a strong pace. Paul Townend has talked about him needed a pacemaker in the race, so I expect Dysart Dynamo to set a fierce pace for him although there are other front runners so perhaps he doesn't need his stablemate. The likely winner and one of my bankers of the Festival.

Jonbon - 5/2

The best of the British, I was hopeful that Jonbon might be upped in trip at the start of the season. However he's picked up 2 of the big races over 2 miles this season including the Tingle Creek on atrocious ground, so there hasn't been any need to change trip with the Walk in the Park gelding. Set to run in the rescheduled Clarence House this weekend, he should win that en-route to the big one in March. Maybe Jonbon would be better suited to making the running and dictating the race as his best chance of turning the tables on his old nemesis El Fabiolo, and Nico De Boinville being onboard would also bolster his chances. However there is plenty of pace already in the race as we speak and it's unlikely he'll be able to do that. Aiden Coleman has chased the pace in Jonbon's 2 losses at the Festival, and it's probably been to his detriment. Seven Barrows will need to think of different tactics to beat the favourite, but I still think El Fabiolo is just a better horse and Jonbon should fill 2nd place on the day regardless.

Dinoblue - 14/1

Likely to go to the Mares Chase which looks a penalty kick if she gets the trip. I'm open minded on her stamina worries right now, and don't want to nail my colours to the mast right now on that topic. If she does run in the Champion Chase, she has a good chance of filling the frame and would get 7lb from the geldings which certainly puts her in the mix. I think she'll definitely go the Mares Chase, so I will move on swiftly.

Edwardstone - 20/1

Energumene v Edwardstone. What was built to be a big clash in last years Champion Chase went down like a lead ballon when Edwardstone ran no race and finished stone last beaten a distance. After his impressive Tingle Creek win last season, he looked sure to run a huge race in the Champion Chase and give Energumene a proper race, however it was not to be. Seen over 2 miles twice this season, he's been beaten twice by Jonbon and it's hard to see him turning the form around with him, or El Fabiolo for that matter. Upped in distance at Kempton to 2m4f last week, he was keen throughout and offered little in the finish. Assuming he's back fit and firing he has place claims in March especially if he's ridden for a place by his astute jockey Tom Cannon, but there are serious question marks about Alan King's gelding right now. He's also 10 years old now, and isn't improving by any means.

Boothill - 25/1

Winner of 2 lucrative handicaps at Ascot over 2 miles, he fell on his last start at Kempton in the Desert Orchid. A strong traveller, I'm not sure Cheltenham will suit him and it's a question mark whether he even turns up. I would rather side with something else at a big price from a each way angle, regardless of his participation.

Captain Guinness - 25/1

Captain Guinness was advised as a bet at 33/1 on the Cheltenham Longshots special post a few weeks ago, and still holds valid claims at 25/1 from an each way point of view. If anything happens with the front 2 in the market, then I expect him to pick up the pieces. Ran a cracker in last years race despite being beaten by 10L, and a bit of nicer ground would benefit him (heavy in last years race). Set to run at Leopardstown next month, this horse seems to have a serious aversion to that course and his run might be better ignored. Has serious place claims and still has a little juice in his price.

Ferny Hollow - 25/1

A horse riddled with heaps of ability, he has had too many niggling injuries to fulfill his potential sadly. If he has a prep in the Dublin Chase and shows enough, he could run here. Best ignored for now, but it would be good to see him come back and run a good race.

Gentleman De Mee - 33/1

Talented front runner. I think he's at his best on flat tracks in small fields where he's allowed a soft lead. I think if Dysart Dynamo and Editeur Du Gite run in the race, he won't be allowed a soft lead therefore nullifying his chances. He has place claims if the race is run to suit him, but he wouldn't be for me.

Editeur Du Gite - 40/1

Another horse who wants to make the running and get a soft lead, like he did in the rescheduled Clarence House at Cheltenham last year where he won his first Grade 1. He is best suited by decent ground, but he falls short of Grade 1 standard when all the top class horses are fit and firing.

Fil Dor - 40/1

Having swerved the Horse and Jockey Chase at Thurles the other week, his next destination looks the 2 mile Dublin Chase at the DRF. Unless he goes very close against El Fabiolo, he is likely to be upped in trip for the Ryanair Chase. Although he's improving as a chaser and now is an ideal age having matured a little more since his juvenile days, he doesn't jump clean enough for 2 miles as shown this season. Nonetheless he is improving in that department and if he runs a solid race at the DRF, he has a decent chance of running a big race in the Ryanair.

Dysart Dynamo - 100/1

It would be remiss of me not to include Dysart Dynamo despite his 3 digit price. A horse who has a great deal of ability but Closutton havent been able to unlock it since his novice hurdle days. I suppose he's never been the same since his fall in the Supreme, where he was joint favourite with Constitution Hill. He clearly isn't up to the standard of Nicky Henderson's gelding, but I wonder if they'll try something new with him such as a tongue tie or headgear here. I'm assuming they probably have tried something at home, and they changed tactics where he was held up in mid division last time at Leopardstown where he took another tiring fall. Until he learns to relax, the likelihood is that he won't ever be a graded horse and might be one for handicaps when his mark drops.

Conclusion

One of my bankers of the Festival, and I'm not telling anybody anything they don't know but EL FABIOLO should confirm his well-being once again at the Dublin Racing Festival in the 2 mile Dublin Chase en-route to confirming his superiority as the 2 mile champion at Prestbury Park in March. He looks set to give Willie Mullins his 3rd Champion Chase on the bounce, and take the crown from the classy Energumene.

Jonbon may be able to reduce the deficit of his 5 and a half length defeat in last years Arkle by a change of tactics and with the excellent Nico De Boinville on board, but it won't be enough to turn the winning position around. If you are looking for an each way bet, my selection would be CAPTAIN GUINNESS who will run his race and pick up the pieces if anything goes wrong with the front 2. At 25/1 there is still a little juice in his price from an each way angle.

I'm hoping they may change something with Dysart Dynamo and 100/1 isn't the worst price in the world to chance on the day with a number of places on offer. Something to keep in mind although the likelihood is that he's just not as good as once thought.

Bets:

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens (Bet365)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 (Bet365)

Already Advised:

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)