Antepost: Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle

The novice hurdles are starting to become more clearer with just over 3 weeks left until the festival. The horse who holds the key to both the Supreme and the Baring Bingham is the exceptional Ballyburn. I'm writing this on the provision that Ballyburn goes to the Supreme. So let's take a look at the first novice hurdle that's being previewed in the 28 part series.

1:30 Cheltenham - 2m5f - Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle

Ballyburn - 7/2

The standout novice hurdler this year to my eye, I think he'll probably end up in the Supreme. However I wouldn't be 100% confident on that given Willie Mullins will reshuffle his pack at the very last minute. If he does run here, barring falls, he will win.

Slade Steel - 4/1

The likely favourite assuming Ballyburn doesn't run here, Henry De Bromhead's star looks a high class horse in the making. Bred by Telescope, a relatively new sire to the National Hunt ranks, he's already a winner over 2m4f in a Grade 2 at Navan. 2nd to Ballyburn at the DRF over 2 miles, he stayed on well to the line and he should suit this race as he jumps, travels and stays - all key qualities needed for the old course at Cheltenham.

Mystical Power - 5/1

Mystical Power is causing me headaches. Winner of the Moscow Flyer and trained by Willie Mullins generally (not always) mean they will run in the Supreme. However if Ballyburn runs in the Supreme, and Willie sees this as his other top tier novice hurdler, he will want to split them up. Whether he will is a question only Willie knows the answer to, however I still see a rawness and immature way to Mystical Power that suggests this years festival might not be what he wants right now. There's no doubting his potential ability with his turn of foot at Punchestown catching the eye, however he was still green throughout the race and didn't jump expertly by any means. He will need to be respected wherever he goes, but he's a horse I want to take on.

Ile Atlantique - 6/1

Another runner with bags of ability, although he has some genuine question marks regarding his ability in a battle. He's been worried out of it in a battle 3 times now since joining Willie Mullins, although that's been by small margins each time and with him maturing every race - I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. A strong traveller and good jumper, he will suit this course as well especially if he gets a bit of soft ground. Beaten in the Lawlors of Naas by Readin Tommy Wrong, I'd say Paul Townend will ride a different race and will of learnt plenty about him. He'll be an excellent chaser next year, no doubt about that. Good chance.

Readin Tommy Wrong - 7/1

Surprise winner of the Lawlors of Naas novice hurdle last month, he looks to have a good blend of speed and stamina. To my eye however, he looks an Albert Bartlett horse right now. However will connections want to potentially bottom this horse given he has winning efforts over 2 miles and a classy win against potential top notch middle distance horses? I'm not sure. He still looks a fairly green individual too and might not be suited to the 3 mile event despite his obvious stamina efficiencies. I think he might find the old course a bit sharp for him, but will be staying on at the end. Each way chance. I wonder if given he's out of Authorized (Mare is NH bred I know) who's progeny don't always enjoy chasing on the whole, that he might be a horse for the Stayers Hurdle next year?

Gidleigh Park - 11/1

Walk in the Park gelding who looks like he'll be a potentially top class chaser next season. He caught the eye in his opening 2 novice hurdles at Exeter and Newbury respectively but was underwhelming in his latest appearance on trials day at Cheltenham last month. I wouldn't judge him fully on that run, as he was keen and is still a big baby who's learning. If he does run here, he should give a good account of himself but will be a next year horse for chasing.

Billericay Dickie - 12/1

Once raced over hurdles, he was impressive enough against an average field. I think he may miss Cheltenham according to his trainer Willie Mullins. Another flat bred gelding, he might mix and match between hurdles and the flat like his stablemate and fellow Joe Donnelly owner Bring on the Night as an example off the top my head.

Handstands - 16/1

Another babyish horse who will likely be even better next year, he was very impressive winning the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon a couple of weeks ago. He travelled well throughout and beat a solid horse in Jango Baie despite getting 5lb from him. I'd say he's probably the best of the British as he has a nice blend of speed and stamina, whereas Gidleigh Park looks a 3 mile chaser in the making. He has a good each way chance as he jumps and travels. He might not have the finishing kick of one of the Irish horses at this stage of his career but he's improving all the time.

Captain Teague - 20/1

Winner of the Challow Hurdle, he might be better suited to the Albert Bartlett. However the owner and trainer have Welcom to Cartries for that race, so it's likely that he will run here. He probably needs a stamina test and soft ground, which he may not get here but could still run well and fill the frame. He probably lacks the speed to win it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Harry Cobden take it up early and try and make it a stamina test.

Predators Gold - 20/1

Despite being beaten twice in his last 2 starts, I think Predators Gold is being underrated by the market here. He started the season with an impressive win of a maiden hurdle at Punchestown, before running well in the 2 mile Grade 1 finishing 2nd to the classy Caldwell Potter in atrocious ground - making a bad mistake at the last hurdle too. That run screamed stamina to me, and he was upped to 2m6f at the DRF, where he ran a good race finishing 2nd to Dancing City. That race might not of been the deepest contest by any means, however he was keen throughout and that told in the finish. He still stayed on well enough to the line and the experience will bring him on even more for this race I feel. He might not have the acceleration of a couple of the other horses here such as Mystical Power but has enough going for him to be very competitive at the end of the race. Saying that he does possess enough speed to travel into the race, given he could lie up over 2 miles at Leopardstown. You can get 25/1 in an antepost market, and that's a nice enough price if you want to take a risk.

Staffordshire Knot - 25/1

Entered in the Michael Purcell at Thurles next week, he might be an interesting springer in the market if he wins that race well. Sold for over 500k at the Browns dispersal the other week, he clearly has a great deal of ability having finished 3rd behind Readin Tommy Wrong and Lisnagar Fortune in a maiden hurdle on his first ever run under rules. If he does win next week, and wins impressively, he could go to the Ballymore with a decent chance. One to watch.

Jango Baie - 33/1

Beaten by the aforementioned Handstands, I thought he might be a challenger for this race before that defeat. If he does run here then he might be one at a big price with 4 or 5 places on offer for example as I think he's better than his Huntingdon defeat where he wasn't given the greatest of rides. Nico De Boinville will be on board if he does run, which is a major positive. However the logical target looks the Mersey Novices Hurdle at Aintree, given he won the Grade 1 novice hurdle at that track on Boxing Day. I still think he's a good horse who could outrun his odds here especially as the tempo will suit him given he's so strong at the finish and should improve into the spring even further.

Lucky Place - 33/1

2nd to Gidleigh Park on trials day at Cheltenham, he will probably head to this race and connections will be happy if he can secure his place in the top 4 or 5. Been worried out of races twice, including getting beat by a potentially smart mare in Golden Ace at Taunton. His trainer has gone slowly with him this season, and he might be a decent horse in handicaps next season.

Conclusion:

Ballyburn holds the key to this race given he could easily take this or the Supreme at the festival. The general vibes seem to be that he will take his chance in the Supreme. In my mind that is likely to be his target too, but unless you're in the mind of Willie Mullins - then who knows? I'll go on the basis that Ballyburn will go to the Supreme and we can concentrate on others in the market.

Mystical Power looks another horse riddled with ability and with his finishing kick at Punchestown, you couldn't not be impressed. However I still think he's a work in progress and Cheltenham might be an eye opener for him with his jumping and travelling through the race. He won't be able to sit off at the back and come with a late run here like he did in an average Moscow Flyer. He also will need to brush up on his jumping too as it was very sticky throughout. I wonder if they'll go on the flat with him this summer too.

Moving on, there are a couple of other Willie Mullins runners who I like at the prices and the first one is ILE ATLANTIQUE. His mentality has been called into question, and probably rightly so, as he's been beaten in every battle he's faced at an Irish racecourse so far and does look like a horse who might not enjoy a battle. I'll give him the benefit of doubt in his latest battle against Readin Tommy Wrong, and I hope if Paul Townend is on board again, he will ride a different race as he was mugged late on by the Munir/Suede stayer. Daryl Jacob (on board of the winner) said that Ile Atlantique did stick his head down and battled all the way to line at Naas though, and the Tony Bloom gelding will come on even further in terms of experience for his run here. A good jumper, he will travel well on this old course and I hope he can get the better of his rivals. I think he's as good as Slade Steel, if not better, and I'll chance a win only bet @ 6/1 with the non-runner-no-bet concession.

The other horse who interests me from an each way point of view is PREDATORS GOLD. He's ran well in 2 Grade 1 evens this year, suggesting he will enjoy the tempo of the festival and should give a good account of himself. A bit of soft ground will help him in this race, and it's likely he will be staying on well to the line. There is talk of a hood going on to calm him down due to his keenness throughout the race and Willie Mullins has a good record with first time hoods for his runners. I'll take the 20/1 with the NRNB concession, and assuming Ballyburn doesn't run, he does have small claims of winning given he's shown he's well above average.

There is a little bit of depth to this race however and there are a number of horses who hold each way claims including Handstands, Jango Baie and Staffordshire Knot if they turn up too. Especially as they look horses who are genuine 2 and a half milers right now. It will be an interesting race on the day with firms going 4 or 5 places assuming the race gets filled by 10 or 12+ runners, especially if Ballyburn scares off plenty of the opposition in the Supreme.

Bets:

Ile Atlantique - 1pt win @ 6/1 NRNB (William Hill)

Predators Gold - 1pt ew @ 20/1 NRNB (Bet365)

Already Advised:

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Arkle Chase (Advised 16/02/2024)

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)