Antepost: Arkle Novices Chase

The Arkle is one of my favourite races of the year and the roll honour is top class. Sprinter Sacre obviously stands out in recent times, and I doubt I'll see a better 2 mile chaser in my time. We might, but I'll always side with Sprinter Sacre over anything! Douvan and Altior are also 2 of my favourite horses who have got themselves on the honours board, and what a shame it was to see Douvan never fulfill his potential due to injury.

This years race doesn't have a winner in waiting that are on par with the aforementioned winners, but it's an interesting race nonetheless, although if Marine Nationale came back to form he could still be a top class chaser in the making. There's question marks over that, which we'll look at now.

2:10 Cheltenham - 2m - Arkle Novices Chase

Marine Nationale - 5/2

Going into the Dublin Racing Festival, you would probably be thinking Marine Nationale could be an Arkle winner in waiting that could cement himself as a top class chaser in the mould of the aforementioned Altior or Douvan. Heavily beaten in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown where he ran disappointingly on soft ground, it was a shock to see him finish so tamely given how much was expected from him at 4/7f. The winner of the Supreme Novices last year, it's hoped better ground and Prestbury Park may spark him back to life. It may of been just an off day which many horses suffer from too. Personally I think he's a horse who isn't robust enough for proper winter ground, and is definitely ground dependent. Hopefully the ground dries out enough, and the fact that the Arkle will take place on fresh unused ground, this will help him massively. Has questions to answer however despite his obvious ability.

Il Etait Temps - 5/1

Winner of the Irish Arkle, he's always been severely underrated by both his connections and the market in graded events. He looks a genuine 2 mile chaser at the moment who travels and jumps, and should be bang there in March. He wore a first time tongue tie at Leopardstown, which seemed to help and he's 5/1 on merit. Arguably he should be favourite given his consistent running this year over fences. Good chance.

Found A Fifty - 6/1

I originally thought Found A Fifty was a middle distance horse for the Turners this season, but he's rejuvenated himself as a 2 miler this season winning a Grade 1 at Christmas making all. That might of been a soft Grade 1 beating 3 other rivals, but he backed up that run when going down by a neck to Il Etait Temps at the DRF. A solid jumper despite his obvious tendency to jump right (not as extreme at the DRF), he has the the pace to be a 2 miler at the moment and should run a cracking race at Cheltenham. I'm unsure whether the track will suit him entirely but he has enough going for him to give him a good chance here.

Hunters Yarn - 8/1

A horse who's shown a decent amount of ability as a chaser already despite only completing once. An unlucky faller first time out over fences when trouncing the field, he then trounced the field and completed the race in his next outing beating the decent Path D'oroux by 10L. Given his breeding he looks a 2 mile horse for the future over fences but I think he may be suited to competing in Ireland in Grade 2 events this spring.

Facile Vega - 10/1

This horse is a real head scratcher and it must be time to step him up in distance. He's still a horse with a high level of ability but hasn't reached the heights that his trainer or punters have predicted. 2nd in the Supreme last year, as well as a Champion Bumper winner, we know that he has an aptitude for the course and the tempo the festival provides. 3rd in the Irish Arkle, he still ran well and jumped adequately, however he probably doesn't jump clean enough for 2 miles. Given his massive frame and size, he isn't able to adjust himself as quickly as his jockey would like and probably isn't nimble enough for 2 miles over fences where jumping counts for so much. His breeding screams stamina, and the slightly slower tempo of the Turners woukd eek more improvement come March. Would have an each way shout if he runs here at best. Bottomless ground would help too, if he runs over 2 miles.

Gaelic Warrior - 10/1

Self combusted at Leopardstown over 2m5f, it's highly unlikely he runs here. He definitely wants to go right handed too.

JPR One - 12/1

The leading British challenger, he's made a smooth transition from hurdles to fences and should give a good account of himself in March. He should of won at this course back in November, but made a mistake and un-shipped his jockey on the run in. He's probably a few pounds off the Irish challengers but if he jumps well enough throughout, he could hit the frame. Definitely a better horse on decent ground.

Quilixios - 12/1

Winner of the Triumph Hurdle in 2021, he missed over 600 days with an injury and returned over fences this season which has seen him win twice and make a decent impression too. Winner at Naas last month, he jumped well and put the race to bed against a couple of decent horses including. I think he'll probably struggle to win but could run well given he's a graded performer (form is strong from his juvenile days? and I wonder if he'll try to give Found A Fifty a run for his money from the front. Has an each way chance.

Blood Destiny - 20/1

A good jumper, he probably would be better in this race as he was outstayed at Punchestown over 2m3f by Spillanes Tower last month and doesn't look ready for the middle distance trip at this stage of his career. He's still shown a keen aptitude for chasing however, and will improve away into the spring. I'm not sure whether he'll be on the boat across the Irish Sea for the festival, however he would have a squeak at filling the frame if things fall right on the day.

My Mate Mozzie - 20/1

Likely to target the Grand Annual, he's already a course and distance winner over fences at Cheltenham this season. He also finished a decent 2nd to Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 at Christmas too. A bit of a rogue, he needs to be ridden conservatively and come with a late run. If he does run here, he probably has a good chance of being placed as he'll be ridden to pick up the pieces especially as the front few in the betting will go hard to try and win their race. From a win point of view, I would discount his chances however.

Master Chewy - 33/1

Had an excellent season for his connnections given he was only rated 122 over hurdles and has enjoyed a productive novice chase campaign. He's now a 150 rated chaser and has performed consistently in his 5 runs over fences this year. A good run here would be finishing in the top 5 and might be better suited to a flat track like Aintree or Ayr.

Matata - 33/1

As above.

Djelo - 40/1

He ran a good enough race at Sandown last time out to head to Cheltenham if connections wanted to go, but might be better suited to the Turners where the field is likely to cut up even more than the Arkle.

Sharjah - 50/1

For a horse who only started his novice chasing campaign at the age of 10, he's had a remarkable campaign running several consistent races including in a couple of Grade 1s. Again, if he finished in the top 5, it would be a successful run. He could be one for the place markets on the day, and I'd be tempted to get involved if I got a decent enough price for him to finish in the top 4 given his love for the course and tempo that the festival gives.

Conclusion:

Marine Nationale would be the clear pick of these on ability given his impressive win in the Supreme last year but clearly has some issues with his breathing given his wind operation and tongue tie in situ this season, and he seems terribly ground dependent. If he runs up to his best, he wins. However he's not the most robust horse to my eye, and it's not a given that he will show his true ability after his very disappointing performance at Leopardstown. The one saving grace would be that the Arkle is ran on fresh, unused ground.

With the questions hanging over Marine Nationale playing on my mind, I'll look elsewhere. Il Etait Temps should probably be favourite and looks set to be bang there. However he's not my selection either despite his obvious chance on paper. Instead I'll side with FOUND A FIFTY who looks set to run a cracker himself. The track is a slight worry for me with his tendency to jump right a concern especially on the old course which is the tighter course and you don't want to give away ground too much there. However that wasn't as extreme at the DRF, and he jumped well throughout. He's shown he has the pace for 2 miles, stays well over the trip and will be prominent throughout which I like on this course. The added bonus of Jack Kennedy on board is also a plus too. The 6/1 each way with William Hill looks a tasty bet with 3 places on offer. I'm assuming this race will have more than 8 runners but you can never be sure these days, so the each way terms are favourable and Found A Fifty is a solid each way bet as things stand.

Bets:

Found A Fifty - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB (William Hill)

Already Advised:

Galvin - 1.5pts ew @ 9/2 NRNB - Cross Country (Advised 13/02/2024)

You Oughta Know - 1.5pts ew @ 11/1 NRNB - Champion Bumper (Advised 11/02/2024)

Fastorslow - 2pts ew @ 6/1 NRNB - Gold Cup (Advised 05/02/2024)

El Fabiolo - 2pts win @ Evens - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Captain Guinness - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Champion Chase (Advised 25/01/2024)

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (NRNB) - Brown Advisory (Advised 22/01/2024)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 - Brown Advisory (22/01/2024)

Irish Point - 1pt win @ 6/1 - Stayers Hurdle (Advised 15/01/2024)

Ashroe Diamond - 1.25pts ew @ 7/1 - Mares Hurdle (Advised 10/01/2024)

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 - Ryanair Chase (Advised 04/01/24)