5 long term bets for the Cheltenham Festival 2022

At the time of writing we are over 5 months away from the Cheltenham Festival and it's about time I put up a few selections in the hope of finding some value in the antepost market for Cheltenham. The likelihood of bagging a winner this far away from the Festival is slim given injuries, different targets and some horses not fulfilling the potential you thought they had. Still, we'll give it a go...

Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle - 2m1f

Probably my strongest fancy at the moment for the Festival outside of the obvious, Elle Est Belle trained by Dan Skelton first caught the eye when winning in a canter at Aintree back in October 2020. Despite it being a poor enough race, the way he travelled through with ease and class caught the attention of many. She then went onto win at Cheltenham in a dead heat in her next outing. Despite the form not being boosted, she looked a work in progress and a horse tenderly handled by Harry Skelton as one for the future.

Next seen in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, she went off 16/1 finishing a fine 3rd for a young unexposed mare against potentially 2 top notch horses in Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard. That race has already been spoken on this website as a strong enough race with depth and one of the horses I expect to come to the fore in her division for the Dawn Run is Skelton's mare. Last seen at Aintree finishing 2nd coming from the back of the pack, I think she will improve hugely for the summer and more racing over hurdles in the early to middle part of the season. One of my strongest fancies to follow for March, with some juice as an each way price at 10/1.

Selection: Elle Est Belle - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (Various)

Mares Hurdle - 2m4f

One of the most impressive novice hurdlers last season, Echoes In Rain looks a horse capable of going 2m4 (Staying further won't be a problem being out of Authorized) and has both the speed and the stamina to be an ideal candidate for this race. Last seen winning the Champion Novice Hurdle over 2 miles at Punchestown, although she looks to have the speed for the Champion Hurdle, connections will probably prefer to stay away from Honeysuckle and go for an easier option in the Mares. With her novice form stacking up with the beating of Belfast Banter (County Hurdle and Aintree Grade 1 winner), Blue Lord (Running a cracker in the Supreme) and beating fair yardsticks at the Easter meeting at Fairyhouse, she improved with racing and settled a lot better towards the latter end of the season.

With the Mares division still looking short of a superstar with Benie Des Dieux (Retired) and Honeysuckle (Champion Hurdle winner) elsewhere, Echoes In Rain can cement her class on a weakish looking division. Black Tears is a solid 150 horse alongside Concertista, whilst Telmesomethinggirl looks an obvious candidate without that Mares Novice form looking top class. This race is primed for something to come out of the pack and cement themselves at the top of the market by the middle part of the season.

Selection: Echoes In Rain - 1pt win @ 9/1 (William Hill)

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 3m2f

Sad news this week with the news that Monkfish will miss the entire season and a huge blow to the Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci team after what looked like a ripe opportunity for Ricci to win a Gold Cup with the Stowaway gelding. The obvious players look the 1-2 from last seasons race in Minella Indo and A Plus Tard but they are both priced accordingly and I'd rather look elsewhere.

Chantry House looks an obvious horse to look at and there is probably juice in his price at 14/1. He jumps, travels and stays well so there is no reason to suggest that he can't be a player and on breeding he will be fine. However the horse I will put up as a tentative selection at 40/1 is Latest Exhibition. Probably not likely to have the same ability as the 1-2 from last season, I still haven't given up with this horse as a graded winner at the top level though. Last seen finishing 4th in scrappy Irish Grand National (I don't take that form literally due to the nature of the race), to be a Gold Cup horse you'd think he would gone a lot closer off 153. Only beaten 5 lengths giving a stone to each runner in the 1-2-3, it was a good performance for a novice chaser who only run 4 times over fences before that. It's also worth noting that he prefers to go left handed as a rule of thumb.

It's also worth noting that his trainer Paul Nolan didn't send him to Cheltenham as he didn't feel he could turn over Monkfish, however Monkfish didn't turn up to his full ability on the day and I still am a little aggrieved that Nolan didn't send him to the RSA so he could show his true ability at a track he has performed to a high level at already (Superb run in the Albert Bartlett). Whilst Latest Exhibition likely doesn't possess the top class ability to win a Gold Cup, I fully expect with crowds back in abundance on both sides of the Irish Sea that connections may take a shot at the big one and 40/1 is a big price to have a little play at. I hope to see him in those small field graded chases early in the season before perhaps at shot at the Lexus at Christmas or the Irish Gold Cup in February. I fully expect him to be a solid 160 horse by the end of the season, performing consistently in each outing.

Selection: Latest Exhibition - 1.5pts e/w @ 40/1 (Bet365)

Ryanair Chase - 2m5f

Allaho finally showed his true ability in this race last season by slamming his rivals by half the track, in what was one of the best performances of the week. He will be primed again by Willie Mullins to win 2 on the bounce. However it's not this Cheveley Park Stud gelding that I want to put up.

Envoi Allen was 'the' horse coming into the Festival last season. 11 races unbeaten over bumpers, hurdles and fences, he'd already picked up notable grade 1 wins in the Champion Bumper and Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, and after winning 3 outings over fences in his novice campaign, the Marsh Novices Chase looked like a race where all he had to do is turn up and jump 16 fences. As any punter knows it's never that easy at Cheltenham and the 4/9f tipped up at the 4th to bring antepost punters back down to earth. Well documented that he struggled with the move from Gordon Elliott's to HDB's stable after the Elliott saga only days before Cheltenham, he was keen and cagey going to post and in the first part of the race before tipping up Jack Kennedy.

Moving on a few months now, the target suggested by connections is the Gold Cup. Whilst Envoi has the ability to win, he doesn't strike me as a horse who wants 3m2f and instead I would opt, and I believe too, that he will go for the Ryanair when the time beckons for a decision to be made. A horse with with it all, I think he'll take in the John Durkan in December at Punchestown before perhaps a shot at the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival in February to see if he wants the 3 miles and further for his annual trip to Cheltenham.

A horse with a huge amount of ability, the summer will of done him good to take a break from things and get over his form from the latter part of the season where he failed to complete at Cheltenham and Punchestown. Although punters may of moved on to to find the money making machine like he was before March 2021, you won't want to give up on the Muhtathir bred gelding going forwards. It's worth noting that his sire has produced horses who have enjoyed trips just below 3 miles and it's worth keeping an open mind whether the progeny want extreme trips. I fully expect to see him take in the Ryanair this season before perhaps experimenting as he gets older to whether he wants the Gold Cup trip. The 16/1 for the Ryanair is too tempting however and I would advise to take this as an each way bet)

Selection: Envoi Allen - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

Festival Novices Chase - 3m1/2f

A division that could have some really solid depth to this season, the RSA is always a race I look forward to. A race which has produced some of my favourite chasers over the years in Denman, Bobs Worth and Topofthegame, it always holds good memories for me. The depth to the staying chasers looks strong this year with plenty of star names including Galopin Des Champs, Bravemansgame, Vanillier and Galliard Du Mesnil to name a few. Whilst Bob O'Linger, My Drogo, Appreciate It and Bear Ghylls will all compete over shorter distances, in the future they will be chasers to follow too.

From a price point of view, Bravesmangame (14/1) and Galliard Du Mesnil (25/1) strike me as suitable horses to follow from an antepost point of view, however I took the 33/1 on Bravemansgame in March so I couldn't suggest it at the 14's now, whilst Galliard Du Mesnil could go for the shorter option in the Marsh given he still looks comfortable at middle distances. Looking further down the Oddschecker list however, and a horse who will enjoy the RSA test is Gentlemansgame. Last seen finishing behind Galopin Des Champs (beaten by 12 lengths), I expect him to close the distance once they meet over fences. A huge strapping son of Gentlewave, he was tenderly handled by his trainer and connections last season over hurdles. It's also worth noting he didn't even start his racing career until October 2020 in a P2P in Ireland (Beat subsequent Grade 1 Aintree Bumper favourite Balco Coastal). It's also worth noting he didn't even take part in a bumper and was first seen over rules winning a maiden hurdle at Cork in January 2021. Absent on the ferry over for Cheltenham, connections have said it's all about chasing for this lad and I fully expect him to be competing in graded novice chases by the Dublin Racing Festival.

A lover of soft ground and a horse who wants a good test of stamina, given his age (5) and the fact he is still young in terms of racing (no bumper experience), I expect connections to land on the RSA as a target rather then go for a gruelling race in the National Hunt Chase, despite his need for extreme distances, and 33/1 is a tempting bet for a horse to follow for the season over fences.

Selection: Gentlemansgame 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Various)

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Snippets to note

Other horses to note for other races include; Sir Gerhard and Jonbon (Supreme Novices Hurdle) with both horses looking like they have the speed to compete over 2 miles whilst the vibes remain strong on both. Kilcruit, I expect to go for the Ballymore Novices where 2m5f will be his minimum trip, and Paul Townend will want to keep these apart. It's also worth noting that Mullins has even more firepower which could put a fly in the ointment for Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit followers with 2 Cheveley Park horses in Grangeclare West and Classic Getaway, who are both highly rated. Willie has a huge array of talent going into the new season and the Irish dominance will continue. Gavin Cromwell has a hugely talented novice this season too with the Flemensfirth gelding Letsbeclearaboutit. I expect him to want the Ballymore trip, if not 3 miles and 33/1 is tempting for the Albert Bartlett, although the trainer believes he isn't short of speed. One to certainly note.

In terms of the novice chasers, Bob O'Linger and Appreciate It will take high rank in their chosen races with the Marsh looking likely for the latter, whilst My Drogo is a hugely exciting horse to follow too. Whilst looking at the National Hunt Chase, Run Wild Fred could be plotted to take this in similar to Galvin (Should of won the Irish National) whilst The Bosses Oscar has already started his chasing campaign finishing 2nd earlier this week and could be a horse Elliott targets at this race by getting in a huge number of runs to mature and harden the horse for the gruelling long distance race, before a tilt at the Irish Grand National or such like.